On Fri, Aug 16, 2019 at 6:38 PM Jose Mario Quintana <[email protected]> wrote: > > It was Fama who idea posited that it is virtually impossible to > > consistently beat the market > > The idea that one cannot beat the market can be traced back, at least (and > probably even earlier), to Louis Bachelier who in his Théorie de la > Spéculation dissertation (1900) wrote "the mathematical expectation of the > speculator is zero" (in French, of course).
An attractive notion, but one that is sadly underspecified (especially in the context of "trade war" where deterioration of skills over generations and other "non-market issues" have formative impacts on "the market"). > > Weak: the prices of securities reflect all available public market > > information In the short term, this might hold. In the long term, this becomes ludicrous. > > I tried to offer some concrete examples that it EMH does not hold. > > Earlier in this thread, I offered the entire trading record of a former > first lady in her younger years consisting in achieving a return of 9900% > return in 10 months. Another one is Goldman Sachs producing a profit every > single day of the 63 trading days of Q1 of 2010. Which, indeed, could each be taken as a concrete example that EMH does not hold. Unless you also hold the view that the market concepts themselves are sadly underspecified, in which case you don't even know whether EMH is relevant to those examples. Thanks, -- Raul ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
