Published: Monday, March 13, 2006
Bylined to: Bob Chapman

USA doesn’t care what it'll cost ... they want the FTAA opposition broken up

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER editor Bob Chapman writes: The Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata, Argentina was a stunning defeat for the neocon program of free trade and globalization. It was rejected cold and unequivocally and gave an unmistakable message to Mr. Bush who fled the conference early leaving Mexico’s President Fox to do his bidding. The outcome was a disaster for the elitists.

That was followed by the 20th anniversary meeting of Mercosur, the common market of the south, at Puerto Iguazu, Argentina.

At that time the members were Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, which the US is trying hard to dislodge, Paraguay, with Bolivia and Chile as associate members. A month after the meeting Venezuela was admitted as a new member. At the Uruguay meeting Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez Frias proposed the 5,000-mile natural gas pipeline from Venezuela to Brazil and Argentina branching into Bolivia and other nations.

Those meetings were followed by announcements and finally payment of IMF debt by Argentina and Brazil. That was followed by the elections in Bolivia of Evo Morales and Michelle Bachelet in Chile. In late January, Brazil’s President Lula stated the region was obligated to help Bolivia’s political, economic and social stabilization.

South America is now committed to deepening integration of their economies and the rejection of the neocon Free Trade Association of the Americas, FTAA. Now no longer under the heel of international bankers they are no longer financially imprisoned and they have recovered their autonomy.

The December WTO Dohna Round of talks in Hong Kong exposed the hypocrisy of so-called free trade. The major protagonists were Argentina and Brazil who want true free trade or at least fair trade.

The evolution in trade and foreign affairs for the region has been helped by the willingness of Venezuela’s President Chavez who not only has politically stood behind Mercosur, but has bought sovereign bonds to relieve financial pressures in the region and has been a strong foe against FTAA. This group of leaders might not be what we’d like, but they sure are a better alternative to the elitist-one-world crowd.

There are weak links in Mercosur and one is Uruguay. A year ago Tabare Vazquez was elected as Uruguay’s first left leaning president. He has embraced Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro, but he is governing from the center. He enjoys great popularity and uses whatever works. His previous history as mayor of Montevideo was anti-neocon and anti-privatization. He has also decentralized government. Prior to Vazquez’s victory the country was hit by a run on the banks, an 11% decline in GDP, unemployment of 20% and a crippling IMF debt of $2.3 billion.

  • Vazquez won election by attacking the Washington consensus. He has since avoided the spotlight. His biggest problem is paying the country’s debt.

Argentina defaulted; Uruguay has not. Uruguay was previously known as the Switzerland of South America due to the similarity in banking systems. By not devaluing he was able to raise $500 million in bonds from foreign investors. He and his economic minister see foreign investments being 20% of GDP by 2010. This approach has left Vazquez at odds with his socialist neighbors. The beginning of this is a $1.8 billion foreign investment in two cellulose plants along the Rio Plata separating Uruguay and Argentina.

Argentina is furious seeing pollution and Vazquez won’t back down. The case seems to be headed to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, which will cancel the development for years. The World Bank would cover 9% of the projects cost. If Vazquez presses harder he’ll come in conflict with Mercosur.

Uruguay and Paraguay are Mercosur’s smallest members and they believe they are being marginalized and that may be so. If they hook up with the US, and that is what the neocons are up to, Uruguay could break away.

The US doesn’t care what it will cost -- they want the FTAA opposition broken up.

In the long run if Uruguay does break away they will be a big loser. A bilateral pact with the US will violate Mercosur rules. A US agreement would lead to the exploitation of the country as CAFTA has done in Central America.

The US doesn’t know what free trade is.

  • Debt is 85% of GDP and Uruguay should default ... they’ll never work their way out of it.

The international banks have buried the country ... this is touch and go, we’ll see what happens.

Bob Chapman
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER
P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951, USA
Bob Chapman [EMAIL PROTECTED]

http://www.vheadline.com/chapman



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OM




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