http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1878

Another Coup In The Making in Venezuela?

  Thursday, Nov 16, 2006
By: Chris Carlsson - Gringo in Venezuela

On April 11th, 2002, a group of businessman, politicians, and military 
officers, in conjunction with the cooperation of the major national media, 
kidnapped the president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, and took over the national 
government.  Two days and 19 deaths later, the coup d'etat ultimately failed 
and the president was returned to power.  The wealthy businessmen and oligarchs 
were unable to get rid of the popular president of the masses.  However, recent 
events give the impression that they will soon make another attempt. 

With most of the polls and surveys showing that Chavez has a huge advantage in 
the upcoming December elections, there remains little doubt about who will win 
the presidential elections on December 3rd.  However, the opposition candidates 
and opposition media in Venezuela have a habit of claiming fraud every time 
Chavez or his party win an election.  The stage is already being set for the 
upcoming elections, as mainstream media in Venezuela constantly mention the 
possibility of fraud, and claims the elections are not transparent.  The 
question remains; how can they claim fraud when dozens of surveys taken over 
the last few months show that the election won't even be a close contest?  And 
secondly, why would the Chavez government commit fraud when it is obvious that 
they will easily win?  The answer: it is all part of a plan to overthrow the 
government in the days following the December 3rd election.


The opposition parties in Venezuela have been making claims of fraudulent 
elections over the last few years.  Often times they focus on the "captahuella" 
machines, which take the voters fingerprint to prevent them from voting more 
than once.  Other times the claims center on the CNE, the national electoral 
body which oversees the elections.  The opposition claims that this body is 
totally under the control of the Chavez government.  All of these claims by the 
opposition are, of course, widely covered in the private media, and have 
created the feeling that Venezuela has unfair elections.  So, for the December 
presidential elections, whether people believe it or not, this is all more of 
the same old story.


Last week, however, leaders of the opposition stepped up their rhetoric and 
discussed a "plan" for the days surrounding the elections.  Prominent 
journalistic businessman Rafael Poleo, who was also involved in the 2002 coup 
attempt, announced on the cable network Globovision the opposition "plan" for 
December 3rd, 4th, and 5th.  The plan calls for all voters aligned with the 
opposition to come out and vote on December 3rd.  Then, on December 4th, 
claiming that the elections were fraudulent, the opposition voters must take to 
the streets to protest the Chavez victory.  Referring to the "Orange 
Revolution," when popular protests in Ukraine overturned fraudulent elections 
in 2004, Poleo claims that the electoral fraud is already in place, and makes a 
call for all Venezuelans who are opposed to Chavez to come out into the streets 
and protest on December 4th.  He emphasizes that Manuel Rosales, the opposition 
candidate, must join this movement on December 4th and claim that the elections 
were fraudulent.  If he does, says Poleo, Rosales could become the most 
important person in 21st century Venezuelan history.  


With all of this in place, the plan continues with a call to the high military 
command, in the words of Poleo, to "decide if it is going to continue forcing 
the Venezuelan opposition to put up with an embarrassing regime."  These words, 
directed to the high military command, basically amount to a call to overthrow 
the government.  He continues by referring to the plan as a sequence of events 
that all Venezuelans are going to see this December, and in which their destiny 
as dignified human beings, and the destiny of their respectable nation, is at 
play.  Obviously, Poleo is implying that if Chavez continues in power, 
Venezuela will cease to be a dignified and respectable nation, and that 
Venezuelans should not have to continue putting up with him.  He forgets to 
mention, however, that surveys show Chavez has the support of the majority of 
Venezuelans.


This message to the high military command coincides with a similar call made by 
candidate Manuel Rosales one day before.  At a political rally, Rosales made a 
call for a meeting with the high military command, "because we have to be 
preparing for a transition and change of government that will come to Venezuela 
in the near future," he said.  Rosales has yet to make the claim that the 
elections are fraudulent, but he did call on the government to get rid of the 
"captahuella" machines, which he had previously accepted as a condition of the 
election.  Rosales maintains that he will win at the ballot box, although 
nearly all the polls show him to be trailing Chavez by a large margin.

If it weren't for the 2002 coup attempt, which occurred in a strikingly similar 
fashion, these words from the opposition might not be as significant.  But the 
2002 coup also began with large opposition protests against the government.  
When violence broke out between pro and anti-government groups, snipers and the 
Metropolitan police opened fire on innocent protesters both from the Chavez 
camp and from the opposition.  Next, blaming the violence on the government, 
military officers aligned with the opposition forced the president to leave 
office under the threat that the Presidential Palace would be bombed.  Just as 
they appear to be doing now, the private media set the stage for the coup after 
they made numerous calls for the people to come out and march against Chavez.  
Later, with the intervention of a group within the military they were almost 
successful in overthrowing the government.  Popular demonstrations forced them 
to hand power back over Chavez, but the radical opposition groups didn't go 
away, and they have continued their attempts to destabilize the country in the 
years since.  

On December 4th, it is almost certain that there will be large opposition 
protests in the major cities of Venezuela.  Since the private media continues 
to report false surveys that show a possible victory for the opposition, a 
large sector of the population now believes that Rosales may hold the lead.  
When Chavez beats him at ballot box, which is the obvious result according to 
most polls, it will be a hard reality to accept for all those Venezuelans who 
have been decieved by their major media's manipulation.  Rosales and the 
opposition leaders have called out to the people, and to the military command.  
There will no doubt be protests in the days following the elections, but will 
there be a coup? 

Original source / relevant link: 
Gringo in Venezuela 

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