Any estimate of winning probability is only as good as the estimates of whether
particular games are actually won or lost.
Evidently, even strong programs fail to recognize the impact of nakade, which
will alter the score not by one point, but by ten or twenty. Their estimate of
winning probability is totally wrong. Good players winnow out losing moves and
stick with good moves - the basic premise of minimax searching. Losing a big
group will lead to a win only if one obtains equivalent compensation elsewhere.
Good players sometimes make sacrifice plays, but failing to recognize that
one's group is lost will totally skew one's estimate of one's winning chances.
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