in fact, if you made a betting game out of it, and formed a pool that would go to anyone willing to take the challenge, i think that you'd find that the ratio of dollars "against" to dollars "for" would be a fairly accurate depiction of the strength increase over time. the ratio would likely lag behind the reality, but with money involved, people might tend to think more carefully about the situation.
i think that people have set up such market indicators for all kinds of things just to see how accurately they predict reality. s. On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 12:38 PM, steve uurtamo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > 1d (amateur) is a kind of holy grail for amateurs, because > it separates fairly serious players from people just messing > around, so seeing a program at that level on a 19x19 board at > reasonable (non-blitz) time controls is quite impressive. > > 1p is generally stronger than all but a small handful of > amateurs, so can be thought of as >=7d (amateur). > > beating a 1p in a zero-handicap game would be a > really, really big deal for a computer player. $1M prize > was well-considered, from that point of view. i think > that the "insurance value" of such a proposition is still > pretty low. > > s. > > On Thu, Sep 4, 2008 at 11:38 AM, Don Dailey <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> It's difficult for me to understand this due to different ranking >> systems and pro ratings vs amateur ratings. I see here listed as a 4 >> dan player on this page: >> >> http://www.nihonkiin.or.jp/player/htm/ki000343.htm >> >> >> Is that 4 dan pro? My understanding is something like this: >> >> kyu player are casual players (or weak tournament players) >> >> low dan players are something like advanced amateurs or experts and weak >> masters in chess. >> >> Pro's are like super high dan players and there is not very much >> difference between ranks compared to regular dan players. I have heard >> that a 1d professional will beat a 9d professional with 3 or 4 stones. >> >> So a 1d pro is something like a 7 or 8d+ amateur? >> >> Is this all "roughly" correct? >> >> So I assume that Aoba Kaori is a 4d professional? That would relate to >> something in the ballpark of 9 or 10d amateur if there were such a >> thing. And with 8 stones handicap, this implies that CrazyStone did >> what a 2d+ would have done, or it is weaker than 2d but got lucky. So >> it's "performance rating" for that one game is lower bounded at around 1 >> or 2 dan. Since it won the game we could pick 2 dan as a better lower >> bound guess although since it won we do not have a reasonable upper >> bound guess on it's performance except our own credulity. >> >> Does what I said make any sense? I am not a go player and I'm not very >> comfortable with this guesswork. In chess, if you beat a player I am >> used to thinking in terms of setting a performance rating of around 400 >> ELO higher for that one game. I know this is not precise, but I also >> think of 400 ELO subtracted from the player you beat as a kind of >> "estimated" lower bound on your strength. If you beat a 2500 ELO chess >> player, it's a relatively safe bet that you are at least 2100 ELO in >> strength although technically there is a chance you could lose to >> anybody, even a random move generator. >> >> I know this isn't precise language, but how many ranks would give us >> around 90 - 95% confidence of superiority? If I beat a 5 dan player, >> could you say that it's "very likely" I am at least 3 dan in strength? >> >> I'm thinking that if we estimate Aoba at 10d amateur and CrazyStone wins >> with 8 stone handicap, it is roughly equivalent to beating a 2d player >> without handicap and that we can subtract 2 stones to say that with >> pretty high confidence CrazyStone is playing at least 1 kyu (but that's >> it's much more likely Crazy Stone is stronger than this - after all it >> performed in this one game at least as well as 2d player.) >> >> >> - Don >> >> >> >> >> On Thu, 2008-09-04 at 16:28 +0200, Rémi Coulom wrote: >>> terry mcintyre wrote: >>> > Congratulations! >>> > >>> >>> Thanks. >>> >>> > I'm dying for details! What was the time limit? >>> >>> The organizers asked that the program should play at a constant time (30 >>> second) per move. The sgf file contains time stamps (you can see the >>> time with gogui, for instance). I don't know what was her time control, >>> but she apparently played at the same pace as the program. >>> >>> > Did the game end on time or by resignation at move 179? >>> > >>> >>> She resigned. >>> >>> > The pro was Aoba Kaori, yes? >>> > >>> >>> Yes. >>> >>> The only other information I have about the match are these pages in >>> Japanese: >>> https://secure1.gakkai-web.net/gakkai/fit/program/html/event/event.html#6 >>> http://www.ipsj.or.jp/10jigyo/fit/fit2008/events.html#1-4-1 >>> >>> I hope the organizers can send me some photos tomorrow. Then I will set >>> up a web page and tell the list. >>> >>> Rémi >>> _______________________________________________ >>> computer-go mailing list >>> computer-go@computer-go.org >>> http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ >> >> _______________________________________________ >> computer-go mailing list >> computer-go@computer-go.org >> http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/ >> > _______________________________________________ computer-go mailing list computer-go@computer-go.org http://www.computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go/
