Thanks Ryan, Nice paper – did you follow up on any of the future work?
Simon From: Computer-go <computer-go-boun...@computer-go.org<mailto:computer-go-boun...@computer-go.org>> on behalf of Ryan Hayward <hayw...@ualberta.ca<mailto:hayw...@ualberta.ca>> Reply-To: "computer-go@computer-go.org<mailto:computer-go@computer-go.org>" <computer-go@computer-go.org<mailto:computer-go@computer-go.org>> Date: Wednesday, 30 March 2016 at 18:59 To: "computer-go@computer-go.org<mailto:computer-go@computer-go.org>" <computer-go@computer-go.org<mailto:computer-go@computer-go.org>> Subject: Re: [Computer-go] Congratulations to AlphaGo (Statistical significance of results) Hey Simon, I only now remembered: we actually experimented on the effect of making 1 blunder (random move instead of learned/searched move) in Go and Hex "Blunder Cost in Go and Hex" so this might be a starting point for your question of measuring player strength by measuring all move strengths... https://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~hayward/papers/blunder.pdf On Wed, Mar 30, 2016 at 5:29 AM, Lucas, Simon M <s...@essex.ac.uk<mailto:s...@essex.ac.uk>> wrote: In my original post I put a link to the relevant section of the MacKay book that shows exactly how to calculate the probability of superiority assuming the game outcome is modelled as a biased coin toss: http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itila/ I was making the point that for this and for other outcomes of skill-based games we can do so much more (and as humans we intuitively DO do so much more) than just look at the event outcome - and maybe as a community we should do that more routinely and more quantitatively (e.g. by analysing the quality of each move / action) Best wishes, Simon On 30/03/2016, 11:57, "Computer-go on behalf of djhbrown ." <computer-go-boun...@computer-go.org<mailto:computer-go-boun...@computer-go.org> on behalf of djhbr...@gmail.com<mailto:djhbr...@gmail.com>> wrote: >Simon wrote: "I was discussing the results with a colleague outside >of the Game AI area the other day when he raised >the question (which applies to nearly all sporting events, >given the small sample size involved) >of statistical significance - suggesting that on another week >the result might have been 4-1 to Lee Sedol." > >call me naive, but perhaps you could ask your colleague to calculate >the probability one of side winning 4 games out of 5, and then say >whether that is within 2 standard deviations of the norm. > >his suggestion is complete nonsense, regardless of the small sample >size. perhaps you could ask a statistician next time. > >-- >patient: "whenever i open my mouth, i get a shooting pain in my foot" >doctor: "fire!" >http://sites.google.com/site/djhbrown2/home >https://www.youtube.com/user/djhbrown >_______________________________________________ >Computer-go mailing list >Computer-go@computer-go.org<mailto:Computer-go@computer-go.org> >http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list Computer-go@computer-go.org<mailto:Computer-go@computer-go.org> http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go -- Ryan B Hayward Professor and Director (Outreach+Diversity) Computing Science, UAlberta
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