Ingo is correct.  The territory chart's fluctuations are because it uses the
old territory evaluation without any lookahead.  So for example if a move
threatens a big group, and the reply saves it, there will be fluctuation,
since the group's territory went from solid to unsettled, back to solid.  If
I turned on the quiescence search it would be much smoother, but also much
slower to draw.  If you have the program you can click on a move (which goes
to that position), and ask for a score display, and see what is going on.

The early fluctuations in the win rate chart show that MCTS is not very good
at fuseki.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: computer-go-boun...@dvandva.org [mailto:computer-go-
> boun...@dvandva.org] On Behalf Of "Ingo Althöfer"
> Sent: Sunday, January 15, 2012 6:33 AM
> To: computer-go@dvandva.org
> Subject: Re: [Computer-go] Game 2 goes to Zen: 1-1
> 
> Hi Darren,
> 
> I think, I an also answer your questions on the charts.
> 
> > > Winning percents for White, as seen by "Many Faces of Go"
> > > http://www.althofer.de/zen-tromp-02-percents.jpg
> > >
> > > Territory estimates for White, as seen by ManyFaces
> > > http://www.althofer.de/zen-tromp-02-territory.jpg
> > ...
> > David, what is the territory chart saying? Is it based on playouts (i.e.
> > based on terminal positions), or is it counting the current board
> > position (i.e. as if both players were to pass)?
> 
> No playouts at all involved. "Territory"
> is just counting the current board position in the traditional
> pre Monte-Carlo way. It is one of the nice old MF-10 features within
> ManyFaces, and thanks to David for leaving them in the code.
> It is quite typical that the fluctuations in Territory are much larger
than
> in the relevant part of the Monte-Carlo percent chart.
> 
> > (The territory charts says 15pts to black, with 52-55% to white at
> > around move 45; then says 40pts to white, with about 52% to white at
> > move 80.)
> 
> The two charts are generated completely independently of each other.
> (This independence gives additional information especially to experienced
> users.) In the Monte-Carlo percent diagram each data point stems from
1,000
> random games starting at the corresponding position.
> For reasons of computational speed only every third position is evaluated:
> after moves 3, 6, 9, 12, ... The positions after moves of Black are
related
> to black dots, the others after moves of White.
> 
> It is a bit strange that ManyFaces generates rather large fluctuations for
> the very first data points. Perhaps it would make sense to start the data
> points only at move 20 or so (David, do you hear me?). For me it would be
> also nice to have an option computing the % not only for every third but
for
> every position in the game.
> 
> Regards, Ingo.
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