Thank you for thinking about this. Efficacy is NOT efficiency. So, actually, the efficacy relates to the number of people who would have gotten the disease. So, the 5% is applied to the people who would have gotten the disease if not vaccinated.
So - of 1000 dancers, 100 might have gotten Covid-19 unvaccinated, but vaccinated, the expectation is that 5 to 10 of the 1000 dancers will contract Covid-19. What is 100% though, is that any of those 10 who get the disease will not be hospitalized (symptoms would not require hospital treatment or intubation) IF they get Covid-19. ________________________________ From: Woody Lane via Contra Callers <contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net> Sent: Saturday, May 8, 2021 8:49 PM To: contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net <contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net> Subject: [Callers] Re: Question on Gig Requests Hi Everyone, I wanted to thank you all for such insightful comments. The discussion touched a lot of bases, often from different perspectives. But these comments have been very helpful to me, and hopefully to everyone. Thanks for spending the time constructing responses. I'll add one more thing -- something I've been considering (since I spend a lot of time with numbers. I've also written this for the Trad Callers listserv so some here may have seen it.) -- The vaccines are 90%-95% effective, with those numbers derived from Phase III Trials each with fewer than 30,000 adults per treatment. Even if that observed efficacy accurately described the population, it would mean that 5%-10% of those fully vaccinated folks would still be vulnerable to the virus. Consider an indoor dance with 100 dancers who were all vaccinated -- assuming that the organizers found a way of enforcing a vaccinated-only entry requirement. Those numbers would suggest that the room would still contain 5-10 dancers who were not protected. Now include the existence today of covid variants that are much more aggressively infectious than the original virus, and more virulent. In a room where the primary activity specializes in people holding each other close and breathing into each other's faces. In addition, we really don't know if vaccinated people can carry the virus and possibly transmit it. Now add to the room a few people who came in because it's a public event but who are not vaccinated. Sure, masks would help, and so would good air turnover in the room. But still . . I really like Ken's suggested approach of "chilling out" -- as in what's the rush in the face of a deadly, highly contagious respiratory disease that has political overtones. Woody ________________________________ On 5/4/2021 1:37 PM, Woody Lane via Contra Callers wrote: Hi Everyone, The pandemic has shut down dances for nearly 15 months, but things may be beginning to change. I would like your input on this -- I just received my first request to call at a regular community dance. The dance would be scheduled for September. (The organizers are beginning to schedule for the fall.) This would be a typical evening indoor dance held in a gym. Pre-covid attendance was 70-100. The organizers assured me that safety protocols would be followed, etc. I have not responded yet. (I am fully vaccinated.) Has anyone else begun receiving invitations to call dances? How far out? What are your thoughts on this situation? What is your sense of risk and comfort and community responsibility? I'd really like to get some feedback from this group. Thanks! Woody -- <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><> Woody Lane Caller, Percussive Dancer Roseburg, Oregon http://www.woodylanecaller.com cell: 541-556-0054
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