-Caveat Lector-
The politics of polls
Llewellyn Rockwell Jr
The primary weapon in the media's pro-Clinton
campaign has been the polls. We are reminded every
ten minutes, it seems, that the president is hugely
popular. That means the GOP is radically out of touch,
and that the views of the American people are
embodied in the opinions of Betty Friedan, Jesse
Jackson and Barney Frank.
Not that Congress should shun the unpopular. The
press celebrates politicians when they forge ahead to,
say, raise taxes when public opinion opposes it. This is
called "responsible statesmanship." On the other hand,
cutting federal arts subsidies or foreign aid that 9 out of
10 Americans oppose is called pandering.
Why isn't impeaching a perjurious executive an example
of courage trumping expediency? Because, to the media
elite, the will of the people is to be invoked when
convenient and suppressed when necessary. If polls are
trumpeted loudly and often, you can be sure the
message is for all political dissidents to fall in line.
Grant that Clinton is more popular than he should be,
especially given his war crimes. Grant, too, that much of
this has to do with the growing economy. When
people's lives are improving, they understandably care
less about the minutia of politics because politicians play
a smaller role in their lives. Even granting the
conventional polling data, Clinton's supposed popularity
reflects more indifference than cheerleading.
But let's ask a more fundamental question: how much
can polls about political controversies be trusted? To
answer that question requires thinking about the
methods used to conduct them. The most closely
guarded secret of polling these days is that fewer and
fewer people are willing to participate. Fully two-thirds
of the calls placed to people's homes result in hangups.
If you've received a call from a polling firm, you know
why people are reluctant. There is nothing in it for you.
It feels like an invasion of privacy. You have no way of
verifying the veracity of the caller. If your political
opinions are politically incorrect -- that is, if you
disagree with the White House and CBS -- you are far
less likely to talk. An official pollster might as well be
from the Justice Department, for all the citizen knows.
Hence, participants tend to have conventional opinions
they feel safe in spouting off to a perfect stranger on the
phone. Most people are unwilling to express an un-PC
opinion at a cocktail party, much less to a pushy
character interrupting their dinner.
Pre-election polls provide a good test of all this. And
they are less and less able to predict actual results. The
more unconventional an opinion is -- for example that a
pro wrestler nicknamed "The Body" ought to be
governor -- the less polls are able to discover. Political
outliers, even if they are in the majority, fly under the
polling radar screen.
The question of whether a president ought to be
removed from office falls into the potentially dangerous
category. If the person agreeing to the poll senses that
he will be regarded as a kook for saying the president
ought to be tried and convicted, on the margin he will
say what he is supposed to say and not say what he is
not supposed to say.
This thesis is easily tested. Find a medium that
represents something of a cross section of the
population, where people can express their political
opinions without fear of reprisal or consternation.
Compare answers on that medium to the results of the
typical phone poll. As it happens, in the last year,
massive internet news sites like CNN and MSNBC
have become such outlets.
Phone polls show 65 to 70 percent (of 500 compliant
people) favoring a censure resolution in the Senate (the
very thing the media are clamoring for). But web polls
show exactly the opposite. Between 65 and 70 percent
of participants (tens of thousands of willing clickers)
want a full-blown trial, and half say Clinton should
resign immediately. In addition, the results of these web
polls fit with most people's experience and the
knowledge they have of their neighbors' opinions.
Now I know that these polls are regarded as mere
entertainment. Sites always have this caveat: they "are
not scientifically valid surveys." But this is nonsense. In
what sense is a phone poll of 500 self-selected people
browbeaten into saying what they are supposed to say
more "scientific" than an internet poll soliciting the
opinions of tens or hundreds of thousands of separate
and anonymous mouse clickers?
Moreover, if there is any bias among web news users, it
would tilt leftwards: demographically they fit the
characteristics of people with relatively liberal opinions
(more graduate degrees, more upper class, more
urban). Neither are internet users more libertarian in
their politics, as the old stereotype would have it. For
example, polls asking about government space gizmos
routinely garner 75 to 85 percent support.
Even regular polls show a hardcore of one-third of the
public that wants to see Clinton ousted immediately.
Add to that those who don't answer, those who don't
reveal the truth, and those for whom the entire political
game is utterly sickening, and you've reached the
two-thirds mark and then some.
No, it is hard-core Clinton supporters -- the
Friedan-Jackson-Frank nexus -- who are in the
minority. The Republicans will be making a huge error if
they follow the media line about polls, which is designed
to mask the disgust most Americans have with
Washington and everything associated with it.
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