-Caveat Lector- >From Wash DC Post "" "Most Arab leaders would be overjoyed if they woke up one morning and Saddam was gone," the official said. "They would like us to [topple the Iraqi leader], and they would like us to do it quietly and efficiently. What they say publicly -- they have to cater to the street." "" <<What is most disconcerting to the "Arab Leaders" is the prospect of having another clan or tribe usurp the authority the Americans/British/whathaveyou give each of the the dependent regimes. The real danger S Hussein represented was taking away the means by which the sheikhs, kings, et al, assert their authority: petro$$$ and the military powers generating same. S Hussein equates to a latter day Nasser (albeit different people, methods, et cetera). Non-Arab influence in the region dominates by the divide and confuse policy, augmented by inter-tribal/Islamic sect rivalries. Look for a moratorium on same to unite the Islamists -- OPEC gone successful. A<>E<>R >> General Wary of Plan To Arm Groups in Iraq Commander in Gulf Fearful of 'Rogue State' By Vernon Loeb Washington Post Staff Writer Friday, January 29, 1999; Page A19 The general who commands U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf expressed deep reservations yesterday about the Clinton administration's proposal to arm the Iraqi opposition and said such a move could backfire and create a "rogue state" in Iraq even more destabilizing than the regime of President Saddam Hussein. Echoing concerns over arming the opposition voiced this week by key U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, Marine Corps Gen. Anthony C. Zinni told the Senate Armed Services Committee that none of 91 Iraqi opposition groups has "the viability to overthrow Saddam at this point." Arming them, he warned, "could be very dangerous." "I've seen the effect of regime changes that didn't quite come about the way we would have liked," said Zinni, chief of the U.S. Central Command. "And the last thing we need is another rogue state. The last thing we need is a disintegrated, fragmented Iraq because the effects on the region would be far greater, in my mind, than a contained Saddam." State Department spokesman James Foley later told reporters he endorsed Zinni's conclusion that opposition groups were not an immediate threat to the Iraqi regime and should not receive U.S. arms in the short term. But Foley continued to embrace the Iraq Liberation Act and said the administration's Iraq policy "reached a turning point" after Congress passed the measure in September. The act makes toppling Saddam's regime an explicit goal of U.S. foreign policy and authorizes $97 million in military support to the Iraqi opposition, but leaves any decision to arm the opposition to the administration. "No decisions," Foley said, "have been made yet in that regard." As the administration shifts from containing Saddam to a more active strategy of trying to topple his regime, it designated seven opposition groups last week as eligible for military assistance and named a veteran foreign service officer, Frank Ricciardone, to coordinate U.S. activities with opposition groups. But those efforts have triggered opposition. The Iranian-backed Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the most potent armed force within the opposition, announced last week that it wanted no part of the U.S. plan. Two armed Kurdish militias occupying parts of northern Iraq, the only other major opposition groups with armed soldiers, quickly followed suit, despite extensive efforts by State Department officials last fall to unify the groups and enlist their support in opposing the Iraqi regime. Fearing heavily armed Kurdish forces on its border, the Turkish government, a key U.S. ally in the region, expressed reservations this week about the Iraq Liberation Act. Turkish concerns were echoed yesterday by Saudi officials meeting in Riyadh with Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright. The Saudis said the kingdom "does not believe and does not support any foreign side to interfere in changing the ruling regime in Iraq because any such change should take place from within Iraq and by the people themselves," the Associated Press reported. One administration official in Washington acknowledged Turkey's concerns about arming the Kurds, but cautioned that there is a difference between the Saudis' public and private positions on U.S. efforts to help topple Saddam. "Most Arab leaders would be overjoyed if they woke up one morning and Saddam was gone," the official said. "They would like us to [topple the Iraqi leader], and they would like us to do it quietly and efficiently. What they say publicly -- they have to cater to the street." On Capitol Hill, Gen. Zinni and Walter B. Slocombe, assistant secretary of defense for policy, bluntly told leading Senate proponents of the Iraq Liberation Act that arming the opposition was misguided. But they intimated that covert plans to topple Saddam were on the drawing board. Zinni noted at one point that the administration has been working to unify exile opposition groups operating outside Iraq as a political force, then added: "What we do with the ones inside Iraq, I'd rather address in closed session." Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who supports arming the Iraqi opposition, challenged Zinni on earlier remarks the general had made questioning the wisdom of the Iraq Liberation Act, noting that it "happened to be a law that was passed and signed by the president of the United States." "Do you still believe that the act represents an expensive pipe dream?" McCain asked. "Sir," Zinni replied, "there are 91 opposition groups, 91. We follow every one of those opposition groups in great detail. I will be honest. I don't see an opposition group that has the viability to overthrow Saddam at this point." Pentagon officials, meanwhile, reported another day of skirmishing in the skies over Iraq. Two U.S. F-15E jets observed antiaircraft fire from a battery north of Mosul in the northern no-fly zone at 7:45 a.m. EST and responded by firing three GBU-12 laser-guided 500-pound bombs at the installations, U.S. military officials said. The engagement occurred two hours after a joint U.S.-Turkish military base in Incirlik was put on full alert after a U.S. military radar system detected a ballistic missile launch from Iraq, the officials said. All U.S. personnel were ordered to don protective suits to guard against an attack with chemical or biological weapons, the officials said. But the warning proved to be a false alarm, and the alert was called off after 20 minutes. © Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company ""Given the history of half-hearted and fitful U.S. attempts to build opposition to Saddam Hussein, the Arab world has greeted this new policy with some skepticism. Just this morning, two Saudi-owned newspapers in London quoted an unnamed Saudi official as saying that the kingdom is opposed to any foreign role in changing Iraq's government, saying that any such change should "take place from within Iraq and by the people themselves." "" <<The Saudis (among others) do (and should) not want non-Arabs solving Arab problems given the history of the British & French followed by the Americans to influence the status quo. The legacy of bolstering trumped up governments (friendly to the money chests, not necessarily to their own indigenous populations) has basically created a climate wherein the governments become the leaders and their armies -- their commander-in-chiefs of the domestic forces. Foreign sponsored leadership changes have resulted in the whole region becoming touchy. S Hussein's continued presence creates stability by having everyone's ire focussed on him; his ouster may cause the ire to be focussed elsewhere -- like on the regimes that are currently 'friendly', 'nice', 'stable', 'oil-rich', and 'compliant'. A<>E<>R >> U.S. Builds Support For Ouster Of Saddam By Thomas W. Lippman Washington Post Staff Writer Friday, January 29, 1999; Page A19 AMMAN, Jordan, Jan. 28—On a quick swing through Arab capitals that ended here today, Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright assured friendly leaders that the United States is serious about ending Saddam Hussein's rule in Iraq and asked for their assistance. She told them that the new U.S. policy, which she described as "containment plus regime change," represents a long-term commitment by the Clinton administration to combine military, political, economic and diplomatic pressure on Saddam Hussein, and she asked for their help, according to senior officials traveling with her. Albright's public comments and background briefings by senior aides underlined the extent to which Washington's strategy for dealing with Iraq has changed since Saddam Hussein cut off U.N. weapons inspections last year. Convinced that no credible inspection system can be reinstated so long as Saddam Hussein rules Iraq, the United States is marshaling resources to get rid of him, and, until he is ousted, will use military force as needed to keep him from making trouble. "The Iraqi people deserve better leadership," Albright told U.S. troops this morning during a visit to Prince Sultan Air Base, in the Saudi Arabian desert south of Riyadh. "We are dedicated to that mission, and we don't give up before the job is finished. So it's not going to be real soon that you're out of here, but it is very important that you are here." On Wednesday, Albright reviewed the new U.S. policy with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Foreign Minister Amr Mousa. Afterward, she flew to Riyadh for talks with Crown Prince Abdullah and Foreign Minister Saud Faisal that lasted well past midnight. She then stopped here briefly, adding Jordan to her schedule so she could show support for Jordan's crown prince, also named Abdullah. He was sworn in as heir to the throne Wednesday as his father, King Hussein, returned to the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota for a new round of cancer treatment. This was essentially a courtesy call, but Albright said she and Abdullah talked briefly about Iraq and she repeated to him that "our policy is to contain Saddam and work toward regime change there." Given the history of half-hearted and fitful U.S. attempts to build opposition to Saddam Hussein, the Arab world has greeted this new policy with some skepticism. Just this morning, two Saudi-owned newspapers in London quoted an unnamed Saudi official as saying that the kingdom is opposed to any foreign role in changing Iraq's government, saying that any such change should "take place from within Iraq and by the people themselves." Senior U.S. officials did not claim that Mubarak or the Saudi crown prince endorsed the U.S. campaign or offered to help, but they said that leaders of both countries were sympathetic to the idea that Iraq's people, isolated and impoverished by years of tight economic sanctions, deserve new leadership. They said Mubarak and Abdullah asked them not to say anything about what assistance, if any, they promised to provide. "What I heard at the last two stops is a deep conviction that the only way out is a change of regime," one senior official said after Albright left Saudi Arabia. Judging from the private comments of administration officials, as well as from recent public remarks by Albright and Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, chief of the U.S. Southern Command, the Clinton administration appears convinced that Saddam Hussein was seriously weakened domestically by last month's U.S. and British airstrikes. U.S officials also said the Iraqi leader undercut his political stature throughout the Arab world with his recent calls for the overthrow of the Egyptian and Saudi rulers. In addition, U.S. officials said, the reputation of Iraq's exile opposition for fecklessness and ineptitude is undeserved. "There is serious opposition to Saddam Hussein inside Iraq, people are paying with their lives every day," one senior official said. "And outside, there are many groups that have links inside Iraq who can communicate a new vision of Iraq" to their sympathizers at home. "People go in and out. The regime can't stop that." Albright introduced the Egyptian and Saudi leaders to Frank Ricciardone, whom she recently appointed as special representative for the transition in Iraq. In practice, he will coordinate the effort to organize the opposition, which Congress has funded with $97 million. Ricciardone understands the difficulty of his task. As deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Turkey, he was responsible for evacuating thousands of CIA-sponsored Iraqi dissidents when Saddam Hussein's troops overran their operations in Northern Iraq in 1996. © Copyright 1999 The Washington Post Company ~~~~~~~~~~~~ A<>E<>R The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! 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