-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/Default.htm <A HREF="http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/Default.htm">Stratfor's Kosovo Crisis Center</A> ----- Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone and Fax: 800.308.5825 (Sales) 512.583.5000 (Main) 512.583.5025 (Fax) Homepage: www.stratfor.com E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] � 1998, 1999 Stratfor, Inc. All rights reserved Rethinking the Mission of the Mig-29 Sortie into Bosnia Unconfirmed Reports Link Kosovo Liberation Army to Drug Trade Yugoslav Artillery and SAM (Surface to Air Missile) Threat International Responses to NATO Attack 0415 GMT, 990327- US National Security Advisor Sandy Berger stated in an interview on March 27, 1999 that NATO attacks on Yugoslavia were ongoing as of 0400 GMT. 0245 GMT, 990327 - Bosnia's ambassador at the United Nations requested an emergency meeting of the Security Council, saying that the Yugoslavia warplanes had crossed into his country "with the intention of committing military strikes against our country." 0240 GMT, 990327 - Colonel Lee Hockman of the NATO-led SFOR reported that a pair of Yugoslav jets were intercepted eight kilometers (five miles) inside Bosnia near the town of Bijeljina. (On a side note, this sector of Bosnia is observed by Russian troops.) NATO officials in Brussels earlier reported that the Yugoslav pilots had been captured but later reports indicated that SFOR was still searching for them. Two parachutes were spotted. 0230 GMT, 990327 - Serbian television is reportedly showing World War II war movies in all Yugoslav theaters and banning all western film. The only exception to this is a nationally televised broadcast of the U.S. film "Wag the Dog". 0100 GMT, 990327 - Zoran Popovic, of Yugoslavia's Social Democratic Party told CNN that a military barracks and a pharmaceutical plant were hit by NATO attacks late in the evening of March 26, 1999. 0010 GMT, 990327 - President Clinton told the US Congress on March 26, 1999 that more US troops are needed to protect forces deployed in support of NATO military action against Yugoslavia. In a letter to Congress Clinton said "Sound military planning may also call for sending a limited number of additional U.S. military personnel to Macedonia in support of ongoing operations." According to the letter, these troops would be used for operations involving combat search and rescue, intelligence support, surveillance and reconnaissance. At the same time Clinton announced that 100 "combat" ready US Marines were dispatched to the US Embassy in Macedonia to "enhance security" at the embassy. 2320 GMT, 990326 - During the 2200 GMT Pentagon press-briefing on March 26, 1999 spokesman Ken Bacon said that NATO forces are gradually shifting their attacks to Serbian troops targets. "�as we make progress against the air-defense system - and we have made progress, particularly against its command-and-control elements - we are gradually increasing the emphasis on attacking targets in Kosovo itself, particularly the Serb army, the so-called VJ, and the Serb special police, the so-called MUP," Bacon said. 2315 GMT, 990326 - During the 2200 GMT Pentagon press conference on March 26,1999 spokesman Ken Bacon confirmed that a new wave of attacks was already underway. 2254 GMT, 990326 - Kosova Press is reporting that Serbian MiGs were employed against Kosovar Albanian civilians in the Malishevo region. 2210 GMT, 990326 - Sources in Belgrade reported 10 explosions in the city as of 2200 GMT. The explosions are believed to have come from the eastern part of the city, approximately three kilometers from downtown Belgrade. Additionally, large fires and secondary explosions were reported in that part of the city. 2205 GMT, 990326 - On March 26, 1999 the Theodore Roosevelt Battle Group (TRBATGRU) prepared to depart from Norfolk Naval Base for a regularly scheduled deployment. Defense Department officials stated that the TRBATGRU is scheduled to deploy to the Mediterranean and on to the Persian Gulf. However, some ships from the TRBATGRU may be diverted to support operations in the Adriatic Sea. 2150 GMT, 990326 - Sources in Belgrade reported six to eight explosions in the city as of 2145 GMT. 2137 GMT, 990326 - After he seemed to waver yesterday on backing NATO airstrikes, Italian Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema clearly stated today that Italy would continue to play a vital role in the allied air campaign against the Serbs. D�Alema also pushed through a parlimentary motion recommending renewed talks between the Serbs and the Kosovo Albanians, insisting that "(t)he negotiating table must remain open, even at such a dramatic moment.'' 2115 GMT, 990326 - Kosovo press reports indicate clashes between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) on the morning of March 26, 1999. It was reported that Serb forces attacked KLA positions and Albanian civilians in the villages of Llapashtica e Eperme and Poshtme, Peran, Godishnjak, Baica, Obrace, and in Katunisht (all near Podujevo, northeast of Pristina). Near the Serbian border, Serbian forces have set fire to the villages of Ballovc, Dumnice e Eperme and Poshtme, Llaush e Eperme, Doberdol, Sllattine, Pollate, and Dashec. Additionally, ten Albanians were reported executed in Podujevo. 2110 GMT, 990326 - Citizens in Yugoslavia are beginning to feel the effects of the NATO air campaign. While NATO attacks are targeting military facilities, food and fuel supplies are beginning to run low. Farmers are unable to bring food to cities because they do not have fuel. Fuel supplies have been redirected to the armed forces, causing fuel shortages and supply problems for non-military products. 2030 GMT, 990326 - NATO reported hitting more than 50 military targets since the air campaign began over Yugoslavia. Officials are still studying battle damage assessments to determine exactly how effective the air strikes have been. NATO headquarters reported that more than 400 sorties have been flown since March 24, 1999, and that all aircraft have returned safely to base. [more Stratfor News] Blair appeals to Britons for support against Yugoslavia 0342 GMT, 27 Mar 99 NATO Launches Heaviest Raids On Serbs 0248 GMT, 27 Mar 99 Yugoslavia fighting expands into Bosnia 0200 GMT, 27 Mar 99 Italian premier wins parliamentary backing for NATO strikes 2104 GMT, 26 Mar 99 NATO strikes cement Milosevic's hard-line rule 2049 GMT, 26 Mar 99 U.S. worried about reports of Kosovo atrocities 2020 GMT, 26 Mar 99 NATO Attacks By Day, Serbs Take Revenge 1936 GMT, 26 Mar 99 NATO shoots down two MiGs over Bosnia, captures pilots 1903 GMT, 26 Mar 99 [more Wire Reports] 2308 GMT, 990326 - As we approach midnight in Yugoslavia, it is clear that we have moved toward a 24 hour bombing pattern, with cruise missiles being used during the day and aircraft at night. Reports of eight explosions near the eastern portion of Belgrade, along with sec ondary explosions, indicate attacks on petroleum, oil and lubricants (facilities) or ammunition dumps. That sounds to us like stealth aircraft in the night. We are clearly now in a parallel SEAD campaign and an assault on infrastructure. At the same time, NATO is also attacking some military formations although clearly in insufficient enough numbers to effect Yugoslavian operations. What is equally apparent is that the United States is shoring up NATO. Heavy pressure on the Italians has brought them back into line. Thus, as Saturday in Yugoslavia approaches, the Serbs may be forced to reevaluate their political position. This will subsequently cause them to reexamine their military options. One option is opening up their anti-aircraft fire. The other is to move into Albania and Macedonia. Indeed, doing both at the same time might be the best strategy. One critical issue for the Yugoslavs is strategic resupply. Conversations in Moscow must be intense at this moment. The Yugoslavs undoubtedly want a strategic airlift from the Russians. That may just be a step too far for the Russians to go. That means that the Yugoslavs may be moving toward a "use it or lose it" scenario. If NATO is not going to split apart, then the long-term picture grows darker. This means that they will have to make some substantial military moves fairly quickly or they will start losing their military options. A key variable is the weather. The forecast for the Serb-Macedonian border is rain tonight with heavily overcast skies through Sunday night. The weather for ground operations is not going to get much better than this. 1855 GMT, 990326 - Serbia is continuing to husband its air defense resources. It is clear that the Serbs have studied Iraqi air defense methods carefully and have decided on a different strategy. Over Iraq in 1991, the allies forced the tempo of operations, with Iraq following an air defense strategy that kept up with the allied tempo. As a result, Iraq rapidly engaged and lost its resources. The Serbs have clearly noted that allied air operations tend to open at a very high tempo of operations and then decline to more sustainable levels over the campaign. Serbia is clearly refusing to allow NATO to define the tempo of operations for its air defense forces, avoiding engagements where the correlation of forces favor NATO. Rather, it appears to us that they are waiting for those instances where allied operational tempos allow the Serbs localized opportunities for effective engagements. This means that they will use their radar-based air defense systems only under those circumstances that they deem advantageous. This means that the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) phase will take substantially longer than NATO would like. NATO is thus going to be forced into a more time consuming SEAD phase or alternatively, attacks on non-SEAD targets in parallel with the main SEAD mission. The former is politically difficult because it massively extends the time frame. The latter is militarily dangerous, because it allows air attacks by non-stealth manned aircraft into environments that have not been cleared of air defenses. NATO is obviously evaluating its own response to the Yugoslav strategy. 1830 GMT, 990326 - The weather has been deteriorating in the region over the past 12 hours with clouds and light precipitation now in the area and expected to continue in place for the next 24 hours. This will decrease NATO reconnaissance capabilities and inevitably reduce the effectiveness of some missions. Particularly effected will be close air support missions requiring visual targeting, such as those that might be used against Serbian ground operations against Albania, Macedonia and within Kosovo. In forcing air strikes to fly under the cloud cover, it opens the aircraft to visually-guided and infrared man-portable anti air weapons systems. Were the diplomatic situation not evolving favorably to Serbia, this would be an opportunity for ground offensives against Macedonia and Albania, since NATO tactical air power will lose some effectiveness in this weather. However, under the circumstances, Serbia will probably decline the opportunity offered by the weather. 1821 GMT, 990326 - The focus of attention is now shifting from Washington and Belgrade to Moscow. Over the past 24 hours, Russian reaction has continually heated up. Russia is focusing on three fronts. First, it is signaling a massive collapse in its cooperative relations w ith NATO. In the long term this is a very unpleasant signal as it indicates a much more aggressive anti-NATO stance in the Baltic states, Slovakia, Romania and above all, Ukraine. If this trend continues, it has great significance. Second, within NATO, the Russians appear to be focusing heavily on the French. France is the weak link among NATO countries directly involved in anti-Serb operations. France has had good political relations with the Russians and is uneasy about U.S. power. Russia is trying to exploit this discomfort. Finally, Russia is signaling an increased willingness to ship arms to the Serbs. Now, this is a bit disingenuous, since Russia has been shipping arms and other equipment for quite a while. However, a massive Russian airlift of weapons into Belgrade would pose a double problem for NATO. First, it would increase Serb resistance. Second, the possibility of a shoot-down of a Russian transport plane would restrain operations around Belgrade, creating a situation reminiscent of Haiphong harbor in Vietnam. The American counter is to point out that Russia will never get the IMF money it wants if it acts this way. However, they probably won�t get any money anyway, and the amount of money being promised is so trivial relative to Russia�s problems, that it is hardly influential. But, we are looking for a sudden flexibility on financial matters from the United States and Germany. [more Stratfor Commentary] Kosovo's border with Albania runs along a ridge of mountains, punctuated by passes and river valleys, from Macedonia to Montenegro. Within Kosovo there are five basins: in the north, Kosovo Polje (500 square kilometers); in the west, Metohija (600 square kilometers); northeast, Little Kosovo (80 square kilometers); east, the Gnjilane basin (400 square kilometers); and in the center the Drenica basin (1,200 square kilometers). Kosovo has some 1,500 settlements with the typical dispersal of small settlements (up to 10,000 people), in which 50 percent of the population lives. The larger cities are Pristina (more than 100,000), Prizren (70,000), Pec (60,000), Kosovska Mitrovica (58,000), Djakovica (46,000), and Gnjilane (40,000). ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. 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