-Caveat Lector- War 'would mean biggest oil shock ever' http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,886866,00.html Faisal Islam, economics correspondent Sunday February 2, 2003 The Observer
The world will suffer a bigger oil crisis than that during the Arab-Israeli conflict of 1973 if the US declares war on Iraq, according to leading US investment bank Goldman Sachs. 'The combined effect of Venezuelan and Iraqi disruptions has the potential to be the biggest shock in oil market history, even allowing for offsetting supply increases by other players,' says Gold man's respected analyst Jim O'Neill. Crude oil prices of $31.10 per barrel - a two-year high - do not include any war premium, says the team. It argues that tight supply conditions, small inventories, and severe capacity constraints will see the price soar. 'A war could drive crude oil prices up by an additional $10-$15, or 30 to 50 per cent [to $46],' says Goldman's report, 'More Perfect Storm than Desert Storm'. The oil market is currently factoring in a far more benign outlook for oil prices, based on the experience of a rapid drop in prices as soon as US air strikes on Iraq began in 1991. But Goldman points out that there is less excess production capacity now, and that the market is overconfident in the capacity of strategic reserves to bring oil prices down. Use of strategic reserves may dampen near-term prices but will 'prolong price pressures', says the report. Low global oil stocks and reduced exports from strike-torn Venezuela have boosted prices by more than 30 per cent since late November. The Venezuelan 'outage' has cost 125 million barrels of production, already the fifth biggest supply shock in history, 'which almost entirely explains the current high level of prices'. If the strike continues for two months and an Iraq war lasts a similar time, the cumulative outage will be 600 million barrels, far more than the 400 million taken off the market in the Arab-Israeli war. Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2003 Forwarded for your information. The text and intent of the article have to stand on their own merits. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe simply because it has been handed down for many genera- tions. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumoured by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is written in Holy Scriptures. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of teachers, elders or wise men. Believe only after careful observation and analysis, when you find that it agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all. Then accept it and live up to it." The Buddha on Belief, from the Kalama Sut <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html";>Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/";>ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
