-Caveat Lector- http://www.foreigncorrespondent.com/archive/how_war.html
HOW THE US WILL WAGE THE WAR AGAINST IRAQ By Eric S. Margolis 24 February 2003 NEW YORK - Unless Saddam Hussein is overthrown by a coup, President George Bush appears determined to launch an unprovoked invasion Iraq sometime in March, in spite of growing opposition at home and a storm of protests around the world. This is how the military scenario is likely to develop: Order of Battle *The United States and Britain have assembled over 200,000 men, 120,000 of them ground troops; over 800 warplanes; and powerful fleet, with 4-5 strike carriers in the Gulf. *US ground forces are concentrated in Kuwait: the heavy 3rd Mechanized Infantry Division; an airborne infantry battalion; special operations units; the famed 101st Air Assault Division; elements of the heavy Ist Armored and 1st Mechanized Divisions from Europe; two brigades of the 82nd Airborne Division. In all, five division equivalents with 700 tanks. More US-based units are slated to follow if needed. At sea, or in Kuwait: a division and amphibious landing force of 55,000 US Marines; Britain's 1st Armored Division, 4,000 Royal Marines and famed SAS commandos; 1,000 Australians. *Iraq's dilapidated army has 350,000 men; 1,000 obsolete T-54/55 tanks still serviceable; 100 operational warplanes; a few gunboats; and, on paper, 600,000 reservists of almost no combat capability. War stocks of missiles, munitions, and spare parts are minimal. Morale is poor. Iraq's only combat- capable units: six divisions of Republican Guards(90,000 men) equipped with semi-modern T-72 tanks, self-propelled artillery, and some mobile air defense systems. Three armored Republican Guards divisions, an infantry division, and elite special force units are deployed in two concentric defense zones around Baghdad to protect the regime. The Attack US forces will begin their invasion of Iraq with a massive nighttime blitz of 600-800 Tomahawk and other land- attack missiles, precision-guided bombs and special weapons. B-1 and F-117 Stealth bombers will seek to assassinate President Hussein and decapitate the regime's leadership using new deep penetrating 'bunker- buster' bombs, including the secret 'Big' BLU 13,636 kg monster. Command and control(C3), air defense sites, electric generation, and communications will be largely destroyed by missiles, satellite and laser- guided 2,000 lbs bombs, cyberwarfare computer network attacks, new high-power microwave weapons(aka E-bombs or HPM) that melt all electrical components above or below ground by emitting a violent electromagnetic pulse; and hugely destructive thermobaric fuel air explosives. By dawn of D+1, Iraq's air defense system and air force will not exist. Baghdad will be blacked and cut off from the rest of the nation. Everything that runs on electricity will be shut down. The US Air Force will then attack Republican Guard units, while avoiding regular army units, who will be needed to help police Iraq after the war. Incessant air strikes with precision weapons will leave the Iraqi Army blinded, deaf, dumb, and unable to move. The devastating air campaign will be conducted behind a veil of electronic secrecy. All TV and radios in Baghdad, including those of foreign media, will be blacked out by HPM weapons. The world may not see heavy civilian casualties from the bombing campaign or subsequent street fighting. Ground Offensive US and British Marines will land on Iraq's Faw Peninsula, join up with the Marine division in Kuwait, and drive northeast to isolate, then take the port of Basra. There are three options for the offensive against Baghdad. First, a daring 'coup de main,' particularly if President Hussein is killed, or there is a coup or army mutiny. The 82nd and 101st Airborne troops and special forces seize an airfield just outside the city, air assault in light armor and reinforcements; then advance downtown in an effort to locate and kill surviving government leaders. Soviet Spetsnaz commandos employed this technique in Kabul in December, 1979. Meanwhile. fast-moving wheeled armored units drive the 500 km from Kuwait to Baghdad through rough terrain west of the Euphrates Valley, avoiding Iraqi defenses, and linking up with Shia rebels in Najaf and Kerbala before reinforcing the airborne bridgehead in Baghdad. Option 2: When Washington succeeds in threatening and bribing Turkey into allowing the waiting US 4th Infantry Division to land from ships and open a northern front, US mechanized forces, backed by close air support, could easily advance 100kms south to Mosul and Erbil, seize the region's vital oil fields, preventing Iraq from blowing them up, storm Kirkuk, then race to Baghdad. This operation would prevent Kurdish groups from proclaiming an independent Kurdistan and force Iraq to split its forces. US airborne units may be used to seize Mosul and Kirkuk airfields and await ground reinforcements. Three air bases in the Kurdish region have been prepared by CIA to receive US Apache attack helicopters. These units, air sorties from Turkey, and 40,000 armed Kurdish irregulars, will quickly overwhelm weak Iraqi forces in the north. Option 3: US armor will drive northwest towards Nasiryah, on the Euphrates, and northeast towards riverine cities, Amara and Kut, where the Turks defeated the British in 1916. Backed by heavy bombing, artillery and round-the-clock close air support, US heavy forces would storm these bastions and push the last 100 kms to Baghdad. Fighting up river valleys might prove slow and costly; lengthening US supply lines will become vulnerable to guerilla attack. Options 2 and 3 will likely be used, depending on the degree of Iraqi resistance. Combined offensives from Kuwait and Turkey are the preferred strategy. US, British and Israeli special forces will comb Iraq's western desert for mobile Scud launchers to try to prevent attacks on Israel which, as a primary instigator of the war, may well become a target for Iraqi revenge attacks. Other special ops units and drone aircraft will designate key targets, and try to assassinate Iraqi leaders. The final, decisive battle will be fought house-to-house in and around Baghdad, a sprawling city of low-rise structures, wide avenues and 5 million inhabitants. Dug in Iraqi troops and civilians may put up fierce resistance, though Iraqi tanks and anti-tank weapons are almost useless beyond point- blank range against heavily armored US M1 tanks. Urban warfare is vicious and bloody. Israeli troops were driven from downtown Suez City in 1973; Russian troops were ambushed and decimated in Grozny by Chechen freedom fighters. Saddam Hussein has vowed to turn Baghdad into a second battle of Stalingrad, whose 60th anniversary just passed. CIA warns Iraq may use small stores of mustard and nerve gas, or germs, against Anglo-Saxon forces, and against Kuwait, which Saddam has vowed to punish, but these weapons are inefficient and hard to dispense. They will only delay US attacks and cause unnecessary military and civilian casualties. The Iraq war will serve as a test bed for new US military technologies and tactics, notably night warfare, electronic combat, three-dimensional operations, and unmanned air vehicles. But, when it comes down to street fighting, all will depend on the patriotism of defending Iraqis and their loyalty to Saddam Hussein. Though a spirited defense by Iraqis is possible, the US and its allies will inevitably conquer Iraq, probably within 10-15 days, perhaps less. The rest of the Arab world's regimes will cower like frightened mice and watch Iraq's final punishment for defying an imperial power. For the victorious United States, the real problems will begin after the war. Some 50,000-100,000 troops will be needed to garrison Iraq, fight anti- US guerillas, and put combat internal chaos. Millions of Iraqis will be starving and ill. Iraq will once again be polluted by cancer-causing depleted uranium debris from US cannon and tank shells. In Afghanistan, US forces are now being sucked into a spreading, low- intensity guerilla war, an ominous portent for America's coming occupation of 'liberated' Iraq. copyright Eric S. Margolis 2003 Forwarded for your information. 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