-Caveat Lector-

     Seems like, one way or t'other, come the Millennium, "System Down."


Sun's Weather May Add to Y2K Woes

By PAUL RECER
.c The Associated Press

CHICAGO (AP) -- Computer date confusion about the Year 2000 is not the only
problem Earth's technology is going to face when the new year rolls in.
Astronomers say they're also worried about an angry sun.

In January, just as computers around the world are coping with the Y2K bug,
the sun will enter the most violent and disruptive phase of its 11-year
cycle.

Massive bursts of energy from the sun could mean celebrating the new
millennium in the dark, with dead cellular phones. Ships and planes relying
on satellites for navigation might have to haul out old-fashioned maps. Even
spacewalking astronauts could be at risk, according to reports Monday at the
national meeting of the American Astronomical Society.

Researchers, using new techniques, are forecasting the sun's cycle to peak
during the months of January to April. The sun is expected to be busy with
solar flares and coronal mass ejections -- solar explosions that can equal a
million 100 megaton hydrogen bombs.

Waves of solar energy can trigger power blackouts, block some radio
communications and create phantom commands capable of sending satellites
spinning out of their proper orbits.

There were two pieces of good news: The solar cycle is not expected to be as
severe as some in the past, and, for the first time, there may be some
warning, thanks to a government satellite that will detect bursts of solar
energy and send about an hour's notice, said JoAnn Joselyn of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

That warning, posted on the Internet and relayed through a special system,
will give power companies time to align circuits to minimize or avoid damage
from electrical surges, she said. Satellite operators can power down
equipment or prepare to send corrective signals to their spacecraft.

Scientists have plotted 23 solar cycles, using historic and modern
measurements. But the current cycle may be the most disruptive ever because
much of the vulnerable communications technology now in use is new and has
not been exposed to maximum solar activity, Joselyn said.

``The explosion in technology is intersecting with an extremely disturbed
space environment,'' Joselyn said. ``There is much higher risk now because we
depend more on technology that is vulnerable.''

Joselyn said energy bursts from the sun can cause an electrical charge to
build up on the surface of satellites, triggering phantom signals.

In an earlier solar cycle, she said, small rocket thrusters on a satellite
suddenly started firing, sending the spacecraft out of position. Control of
another satellite was lost when its gyroscopes were disrupted.

Joselyn said cellular telephones may be vulnerable because they can use the
ionosphere -- the region of electrically charged gases in the upper
atmosphere -- to send radio signals, and bursts from the sun can disturb the
ionosphere. Some cellular phone systems depend on satellites that are at risk
too.

Solar energy eruptions can cause warm air to surge up from the Earth. That
can drag some satellites to lower orbits, forcing satellite operators to use
rocket fuel to reposition the spacecraft.

Worldwide navigation, for ships and airplanes, relies heavily on the Global
Positioning Satellite system, which uses a fleet of satellites that can be
affected by the sun, Joselyn said.

``I am worried about the GPS more than anything else,'' she said. ``We're
starting to land airplanes with that system now.''

Electromagnetic energy from the sun can send huge waves of electrical energy
surging along power lines, shorting circuits and burning out equipment. A
1989 solar storm caused a province-wide blackout in Quebec, and coils in a
transformer station in Salem, N.J., melted and caught fire, causing a
regional outage.

Astronauts generally are safe inside the space shuttle or the International
Space Station, but future missions to the moon or Mars will have to guard to
solar radiation bursts.

``On the moon, they could get enough radiation to be lethal,'' said Joselyn.
``If we fly to Mars, we'll have to consider the hazardous radiation from the
sun.''

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