-Caveat Lector-
>From Intellectual Capital.CoM
> Issue of the Week: The New Elderly
> by Andrew Olivastro
> Thursday, September 09, 1999
> Comments: 40 posts <Picture>
>
>
> We are continually finding ways to
> increase the life span of the human race. Researchers and doctors, often with
> the help of government subsidies, toil countless hours in labs attempting to
> figure out ways to stave off disease and allow people to live longer. Meanwhile,
> health officials offer sound advice on how to maintain a healthy lifestyle to
> those of us who want to listen. The end result is the dramatic increase in life
> expectancy among certain elements of the American population.
>
> That increase does not come without a price. While arguing the negative results
> of such procedures might seem inhumane, the next 50 years will see a dramatic
> increase in America's elderly population -- an increase that, by most accounts,
> the United States is not prepared to handle.
>
> In 1900 only one in 25 Americans was over 65; by 2040, according to the Census
> Bureau, the figure will be a little less than one in four or five. Already the
> wave is rising: 33 million Americans are over 65 years old. Their ranks will
> more than double by 2030. The Society of Actuaries says Americans born in 1997
> can expect to live 76.5 years. By 2050, that life expectancy will rise to 80 and
> older.
>
> Science demonstrates that genes account for only about 50% of the aging process.
> Change in lifestyle can tip the odds in favor of a longer, healthier, more
> productive life. Just how long and healthy is still open for debate. How soon
> will we be 90 and feel and look like we are 40? Is such a day really on the
> horizon?
>
> Effects of the demographic shift
>
> Though aging is a perfectly normal, and everyday, occurrence, the impending
> demographic shift (as boomers reach retirement age over the coming decade)
> leaves one wondering how society should prepare for it. Will America be able to
> handle this crush -- and its associated problems?
>
> <Picture: Can America prepare for the elderly? >
> Can America handle
> the boom?
> Just what those problems are depends on whom you ask. Here is a look at seven
> issues that will effect older Americans -- and the United States as a whole --
> in the coming century.
>
>
>
> •Social Security and Medicare. Entitlement programs dominate much current
> political debate because widespread and early retirement will affect the lives
> of everyone. As the number of elderly rises, so will the burden on the young of
> paying for their pensions and health care.
>
> The size of the baby-boom generation promises a simple but vast imbalance as
> they age: too few people working, paying taxes and pension contributions while
> the retired population drawing pensions and running up health costs rises.
>
> •Cost of living. Baby boomers are the first generation of which both genders are
> expected to live well into their 80s -- many to 100. The question is, can they
> afford it?
>
> Robert Kahn, University of Michigan professor and co-author of Successful Aging,
> predicts increased work opportunities for aging Americans.
>
> "Talk of a crisis implies that all older people are a burden on society," Kahn
> says. "That's a fiction generated by national statistics. The gross domestic
> product, for example, ignores anything unpaid. Therefore if you write copy for
> cigarette commercials you're viewed as more valuable than a hospital volunteer
> (who doesn't get paid)."
>
> Kahn continues: "Sixty-five is not 65 anymore. People are advancing in age, but
> not getting old and decrepit. There is still much that they can do and
> contribute."
>
> •Employment. The new elderly will be more independent than their predecessors.
> Along with that independence is the potential for longer and healthier lives,
> raising the possibility of longer and varied employment. Many researchers
> conclude that it would be far better for economic health if older people went on
> working instead of retiring. That raises some questions, Hudson says .
>
> "Do people in their 60s want to keep working?" Hudson says. "Do the 20- to
> 30-year-olds want them working and not taking Social Security -- or not working
> to free up jobs?"
>
> According to The Economist two-thirds of retirees say they like being retired
> and have no desire to go back to work. But in that same issue they report: "In
> America, where jobs for older workers are plentiful and the government is
> scrapping the tax disincentives for older folk to work, early retirement has
> begun to fall. Give people a choice, and they might surprise you."
>
> "We can ditch the idea of older people opting out of the work force," says
> Michael Reinemer, director of communications for the National Council on Aging.
> "Of course, those who work manual labor may exhaust themselves by a traditional
> age and need to retire. But it's in the interest of employers and the economy
> for the elderly to work."
>
> Hudson agrees, saying the new elderly will be broken into two likely groups, the
> "old-old" made up of those 85 and older who need more care, and the "young-old"
> -- those facing work and retirement decisions with many opting for continued
> employment.
>
> •Volunteering. Statistics indicate that more than a third of senior citizens
> actively volunteer, and a greater percentage volunteer on a staggered basis. The
> benefits can be tremendous.
>
> It should not come as a surprise that the elderly population will serve as a
> previously untapped reservoir for volunteers. "Volunteer organizations are in
> difficulty because they were running on highly competent and effective women who
> have since joined the work force," Kahn says. "Most groups have only lightly
> tapped into the resource of older people."
>
> Traditionally, studies (going back as far as Aristotle's Rhetoric) have
> suggested that seniors do not make long-term investments because they are
> unlikely to be around to experience the benefits. That is changing, too. Seniors
> are beginning to return to the classroom and participate in college courses,
> bringing even greater diversity to the classroom.
>
> •Old-age housing. The fastest-growing senior developments are assisted-living
> communities designed for individuals who cannot function in an independent
> living environment but do not need skilled health care. Assisted living offers
> help with bathing, dressing, meals and housekeeping. The typical resident ranges
> in age from 70s to 90s.
>
> Sixty-seven percent of the major housing developments in the U.S. during the
> first half of 1999 were assisted-living projects.
>
> The newest trend in senior living is a migration back to areas near colleges and
> universities. The Arizona Senior Academy, a $70-million development with 204
> single-family homes and 50 to 60 townhouses is now under construction. Designed
> as a retirement community, academic institution and volunteer organization
> rolled into one, the academy will offer classes to residents and utilize them as
> tutors for local grade school and college students.
>
> "There's a tremendous amount generations can benefit from one another," says
> Reinemer, adding that the next 50 years will change we way we look at families.
> "This will likely end the myth of intergenerational warfare. This allows for
> older volunteers, mentoring and financial assistance."
>
> •Family dynamics. Another development is the degree to which the elderly are the
> primary caregivers for relatives. A census report shows that the image of the
> elderly receiving care from younger generations is changing. In many cases, the
> elderly are themselves the caregivers, whether they are caring for a spouse, a
> sibling, a child or a grandchild.
>
> Still, a significant "sandwich generation" -- the generation of people who find
> themselves simultaneously caring for elderly parents and their own children --
> is developing. The same census report indicates that group will increase in the
> next 25 years -- and be under a lot of additional pressure.
>
> •The boom in the very elderly. Of course, the boom on the "young-old" will
> evolve into a boom of the "old-old." The number of centenarians will grow
> dramatically. The Census Bureau estimates that some 66,000 Americans have
> crossed the century mark, 15 times what it was in 1950. By the middle of the
> next century the U.S. is predicted to have 834,000 centenarians.
>
> But before shifting previously held notions of the very elderly onto them, as a
> group, consider this. There is evidence that they can actually be healthier than
> their younger counterparts. The New England Centenarian Study revealed that
> centenarians spend 30% less on average on hospital care then those in their 70s
> -- once again, a sign that conventional wisdom might be a step slow.
>
> The net result
>
> So is the sky falling? Will the graying of America cause harm to our societal
> fabric?
>
> An immediate change, which Hudson says is likely to be phased in over a period
> of time, is an increase in the age of retirement eligibility for Social Security
> and other government entitlements from 65 to 67 by 2030, and potentially to 69
> by 2050. He says any major new government program addressing the issue is
> unlikely.
>
> <Picture: Costs of the aging population are exaggerated >
> Costs of the aging
> population are exaggerated
>
>
> Kahn thinks the costs of the aging of the American population have been
> exaggerated. "There are a number of countries with significantly larger
> populations of elderly, including Japan and Scandinavia, and they're not falling
> apart. The cultural benefits may be great,” he says.
>
> "It's a fake crisis," he adds. "For some significant period there will be an
> increase in the elderly population, but it's only temporary."
>
> Reinemer agrees. "A lot of those people who have suggested there will be a
> crisis have a vested interest in there being a crisis," he says.. "How we deal
> with it will determine if there's a crisis. The doomsayers assume there won't be
> any policy changes. The problem -- and it is real -- is years down the road."
>
> Reinemer adds that the current debate is useful because as a society we are in
> denial about aging.
>
> A brave new world?
>
> Regardless of the long-term results of the debate, society's bleak view of old
> age may at least get a major push toward the positive. If living longer no
> longer means limping down a dark tunnel toward that final bright light,
> extending life has meaning not just for individuals, but also for society.
>
> In the process, it will drive the editors of the Guinness Book of World Records
> crazy.
>
> Andrew Olivastro is senior writer for IntellectualCapital.com. E-mail him at
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
A<>E<>R
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The only real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking
new landscapes but in having new eyes. -Marcel Proust
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, or who said
it, no matter if I have said it, unless it agrees with your
own reason and your common sense." --Buddha
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
A merely fallen enemy may rise again, but the reconciled
one is truly vanquished. -Johann Christoph Schiller,
German Writer (1759-1805)
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that
prevents us from living freely and nobly. -Bertrand Russell
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
"Everyone has the right...to seek, receive and impart
information and ideas through any media and regardless
of frontiers."
Universal Declaration of Human Rights
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
"Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will
teach you to keep your mouth shut."
--- Ernest Hemingway
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
Forwarded as information only; no endorsement to be presumed
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material
is distributed without charge or profit to those who have
expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information
for non-profit research and educational purposes only.
DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER
==========
CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic
screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters
and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright
frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects
spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL
gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers;
be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credeence to Holocaust denial and
nazi's need not apply.
Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
========================================================================
Archives Available at:
http://home.ease.lsoft.com/archives/CTRL.html
http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/
========================================================================
To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email:
SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Om
