My very first question is--And just how are they going to divide up Lebanon, since they both seem to feel complete authority there. Prudy In a message dated 10/18/1999 11:29:12 PM Eastern Daylight Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: << STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update October 19, 1999 Clock Ticks Louder for Israeli-Syrian Peace Talks Summary: There are growing signs that if there is to be a peace deal between Syria and Israel, it will have to happen sooner rather than later. The factors leading to this imperative are a succession crisis in Syria - which may produce more intransigent parties in power - and Israeli security and domestic political concerns. These factors, which have been forcing the two countries apart, may also act to bring them together. Analysis: On Oct. 17, Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul-Illah Khatib flew to Damascus to discuss the Israeli-Syrian peace process with Syrian President Hafez Assad. Khatib reportedly passed along a message from King Abdullah II, who met with U.S. President Clinton last week. A Syrian presidential spokesman did not disclose what was discussed; however, it is believed that the two discussed a formula to restart the peace talks. This was only the latest in a series of apparent attempts by Israel and Syria to accelerate the peace process through Jordanian mediation. [ http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9909161906.htm ] Despite the recent activity, there are signs that direct negotiations between Israel and Syria are being impeded by each country's domestic political concerns. Ironically, these are the same concerns that make it imperative that the peace process be initiated sooner rather than later. The major factor both accelerating and impeding the process is the looming succession crisis resulting from Syrian President Assad's failing health. Domestic politics in Israel demands its negotiators garner enough security guarantees to make their planned pullout from Lebanon next year feasible. This goal is threatened by the emerging succession crisis, which could result in Syria taking a harder line in future negotiations. Israeli Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Amos Malka has already expressed concerns about the deteriorating health of Assad and its possible implications for the Israeli-Syrian negotiations [ http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9910142114.htm ]. Meanwhile, concerned that it is losing bargaining leverage due to Assad's failing health, the Syrian army is modernizing. The army sees the move both as a way to strengthen Syria's negotiating position and as a deterrent to any possible future Israeli hostilities. This action, of course, isn't helping to allay Israeli mistrust. Several reports indicate that Syria has been beefing up its military during the past few months. On Sept. 16, the Jerusalem Post cited Israeli military and intelligence sources as saying that Syria was continuing to develop longer-range derivatives of the Scud C surface-to-surface missiles, capable of delivering chemical and biological weapons. There are suspicions that both China and Iran are aiding Syria in this effort. Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian was in Damascus Oct. 16 to discuss military cooperation with Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass. Syria is also apparently discussing large-scale arms purchases with Russia. News of a $2 billion deal was widely reported in June 1999. The purchases are said to include S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters, T-80 tanks, and anti-tank weapons. The aircraft and anti-aircraft systems are particularly significant, as the Syrian air force is still largely made up of increasingly antiquated MiG-21 fighter aircraft - which would likely fare badly against Israel's modern F-15s and F-16s. Syria has also increased its hard-line rhetoric in recent days, either to boost its position at the bargaining table or due to real anti-peace sentiment emanating from certain factions. Some military and political leaders emphasized that Syria is not prepared to "sell out" in order to get a deal with Israel. On Oct. 16, Syrian Army Chief of Staff Ali Aslan said that "under no circumstances will we compromise our rights, cede our land, or relinquish our dignity. If this [peace] is not achieved, we are not in a hurry; for Syria does not give into threats, pressures or slanders." In that same speech, which marked Syrian aviation day, he urged the Syrian air force to boost its "combat preparedness." On Oct. 17, the government-controlled Tishrin newspaper said the Israeli plan for a unilateral withdrawal from Southern Lebanon was "blackmail against Beirut and Damascus because the Israelis are not serious [in their pullback proposals]." Another indication that the talks need to get moving soon - while at the same time tension builds - is a report from the United Arab Emirates' al-Bayan. The Oct. 16 report said that Israel would prepare to launch a strike against Syria if negotiation progress was not achieved by April 2000. Citing Jordanian sources, the paper reported that this preemptive strike would aim to eliminate Syrian threats from Lebanon and to degrade or destroy Syria's surface-to-surface missile capability. Along with these security tensions, domestic political constraints are slowing the process. Until Barak can get concrete security and water guarantees from Syria enforceable through a neutral third party, the negotiations are likely to remain stalled. Adding to the problem is that the Syrian foreign minister, who was the contact point for the negotiations, is still recovering from a heart problem and has only recently returned to Damascus. These issues have made it extremely difficult for both sides to continue pre-negotiation talks in Jordan [ http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9909161906.htm ]. Even though the Jordanian foreign minister's trip to Syria makes it appear that there is still hope, both governments need to ensure these issues don't scuttle the talks. Therefore, while both countries have signaled that peace is just around the corner, the combination of bad timing and interior political forces may continue to bog down the negotiations. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. >>
___________________________________________ What's going on in your world? Find Out. Visit Stratfor's Global Intelligence Center http://www.stratfor.com/world/default.htm ___________________________________________ CHECK OUT OUR IN-DEPTH KOSOVO REPORT Where Are Kosovo's Killing Fields? http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/genocide.htm Map: The Post-War Search for Graves http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/genocidemap.htm OTHER FEATURES ON STRATFOR.COM Tensions Mount as Indonesian Election Nears http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/m9910182300.htm Protests No Threat to Russia-Belarus Unification http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9910182247.htm ___________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update October 19, 1999 Clock Ticks Louder for Israeli-Syrian Peace Talks Summary: There are growing signs that if there is to be a peace deal between Syria and Israel, it will have to happen sooner rather than later. The factors leading to this imperative are a succession crisis in Syria - which may produce more intransigent parties in power - and Israeli security and domestic political concerns. These factors, which have been forcing the two countries apart, may also act to bring them together. Analysis: On Oct. 17, Jordanian Foreign Minister Abdul-Illah Khatib flew to Damascus to discuss the Israeli-Syrian peace process with Syrian President Hafez Assad. Khatib reportedly passed along a message from King Abdullah II, who met with U.S. President Clinton last week. A Syrian presidential spokesman did not disclose what was discussed; however, it is believed that the two discussed a formula to restart the peace talks. This was only the latest in a series of apparent attempts by Israel and Syria to accelerate the peace process through Jordanian mediation. [ http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9909161906.htm ] Despite the recent activity, there are signs that direct negotiations between Israel and Syria are being impeded by each country's domestic political concerns. Ironically, these are the same concerns that make it imperative that the peace process be initiated sooner rather than later. The major factor both accelerating and impeding the process is the looming succession crisis resulting from Syrian President Assad's failing health. Domestic politics in Israel demands its negotiators garner enough security guarantees to make their planned pullout from Lebanon next year feasible. This goal is threatened by the emerging succession crisis, which could result in Syria taking a harder line in future negotiations. Israeli Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Amos Malka has already expressed concerns about the deteriorating health of Assad and its possible implications for the Israeli-Syrian negotiations [ http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9910142114.htm ]. Meanwhile, concerned that it is losing bargaining leverage due to Assad's failing health, the Syrian army is modernizing. The army sees the move both as a way to strengthen Syria's negotiating position and as a deterrent to any possible future Israeli hostilities. This action, of course, isn't helping to allay Israeli mistrust. Several reports indicate that Syria has been beefing up its military during the past few months. On Sept. 16, the Jerusalem Post cited Israeli military and intelligence sources as saying that Syria was continuing to develop longer-range derivatives of the Scud C surface-to-surface missiles, capable of delivering chemical and biological weapons. There are suspicions that both China and Iran are aiding Syria in this effort. Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian was in Damascus Oct. 16 to discuss military cooperation with Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass. Syria is also apparently discussing large-scale arms purchases with Russia. News of a $2 billion deal was widely reported in June 1999. The purchases are said to include S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters, T-80 tanks, and anti-tank weapons. The aircraft and anti-aircraft systems are particularly significant, as the Syrian air force is still largely made up of increasingly antiquated MiG-21 fighter aircraft - which would likely fare badly against Israel's modern F-15s and F-16s. Syria has also increased its hard-line rhetoric in recent days, either to boost its position at the bargaining table or due to real anti-peace sentiment emanating from certain factions. Some military and political leaders emphasized that Syria is not prepared to "sell out" in order to get a deal with Israel. On Oct. 16, Syrian Army Chief of Staff Ali Aslan said that "under no circumstances will we compromise our rights, cede our land, or relinquish our dignity. If this [peace] is not achieved, we are not in a hurry; for Syria does not give into threats, pressures or slanders." In that same speech, which marked Syrian aviation day, he urged the Syrian air force to boost its "combat preparedness." On Oct. 17, the government-controlled Tishrin newspaper said the Israeli plan for a unilateral withdrawal from Southern Lebanon was "blackmail against Beirut and Damascus because the Israelis are not serious [in their pullback proposals]." Another indication that the talks need to get moving soon - while at the same time tension builds - is a report from the United Arab Emirates' al-Bayan. The Oct. 16 report said that Israel would prepare to launch a strike against Syria if negotiation progress was not achieved by April 2000. Citing Jordanian sources, the paper reported that this preemptive strike would aim to eliminate Syrian threats from Lebanon and to degrade or destroy Syria's surface-to-surface missile capability. Along with these security tensions, domestic political constraints are slowing the process. Until Barak can get concrete security and water guarantees from Syria enforceable through a neutral third party, the negotiations are likely to remain stalled. Adding to the problem is that the Syrian foreign minister, who was the contact point for the negotiations, is still recovering from a heart problem and has only recently returned to Damascus. These issues have made it extremely difficult for both sides to continue pre-negotiation talks in Jordan [ http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9909161906.htm ]. Even though the Jordanian foreign minister's trip to Syria makes it appear that there is still hope, both governments need to ensure these issues don't scuttle the talks. Therefore, while both countries have signaled that peace is just around the corner, the combination of bad timing and interior political forces may continue to bog down the negotiations. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to [EMAIL PROTECTED] UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________________________
