-Caveat Lector- Y2K Damn Y2K, Full Spin Ahead You have to give Kossi the Klown his due. The good news is that his disinformation campaign has succeeded brilliantly and thus prevented panic. The bad news is that his disinformation campaign has succeeded brilliantly and thus prevented any effective national or international preparation. Too bad for Kossi the Klown et al, the computer code doesn't care. In eight days Y2K's ruthless reality will strike without mercy, compassion or the slightest concern about Kossi's carefully crafted spin procedures. While America has slept kosiformed into a Rip Van Winkle sleep, Y2K has continued to unfold all around us. One wonders if Admiral Dewey's famous, "Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead" would be used to describe American go gettism, if the torpedoes had wiped out his fleet, like the Dutch World War Two Admiral Doorman's was. The Dutch Admiral ignored warnings about the Japanese Lance torpedo, with a range of 10,000 yards, and promptly got his fleet wiped out. American go gettism is a national trait that has many merits; indeed, it is ingrained into the national psyche of Americans. Unfortunately, every so often this American go gettism leads to disaster, as in Custer and the Little Big Horn type. Y2K was very susceptible to American go gettism several years ago. Now it is not. With 8 days left, it's time to finally face reality. This essay will again cover the international Y2K situation, with a comparison to the corporate whore press. Yes, I know it's not nice to call them corporate whores, except they are. Just as my GAO report I will go case by case over two recent mainstream press reports on global Y2K readiness. I look at the data. They look at the data. I reach conclusions based on the logic of the evidence. They waffle. They wiffle. They waddle. And they have the nerve to call this journalism? I call it moral cowardice and intellectual dishonesty, wrapped in an arrogant liberal smugness. The American news media is like a smoke detector with dead batteries. No one cares because it looks like the smoke detector is ok-until a fire starts and people die. The first article appeared in USA Today, the mcnugget of newspapers, on December 6th, 1999 in the section entitled "The World Report." The headline was "Y2K bug predicted to bite here and there." Well, for starters it will bite everywhere. The sub headline was "Analysis: Computer failures most likely in Ukraine, Russia, China, Indonesia; unlikely in Britain, Canada, Australia and Singapore." Seems like that implies everywhere else will be ok, which is not a factual statement. There are entire continents, Africa, South America and Asia where significant Y2K effects are almost certain. The intellectual dishonesty starts right with the headline. The headline should have read, "Outside of Britain, Canada, Australia, Singapore and the United States, computer failures likely." BSC consulting lists England and Australia as questionable. And if these two "well prepared countries are questionable then so is the United States. Of course that might freak out the soccer moms and cause a panic. Kossi the Klown doesn't want us to panic even though a terrorist was busted in Port Angeles with 180 pounds of Urea and timers. Kossi doesn't want us to panic even though Y2K will have documented severe global impact. One wonders exactly when Kossi the Klown wants us to panic? Certainly not 18 months ago when the panic might actually have led to people preparing in a somewhat rational way for Y2K. 70% say they will do nothing. Let the blood guilt be on Kossi's head, for he has lied to protect stock market capital instead of human capital. And for that, people will turn on him, will turn on the whole rotten elite, and rip them to pieces. The main article goes on with a litany of bizarre statements about Thai Buddhist calendars, US State Department useless chatter and a choice statement from a Colombian computer expert who worries about-you guessed it-a public panic. This in a country where dozens of Marines were slaughtered in a battalion strength rebel attack on a fortified Naval base, just a few miles from the Panama Canal. It seems to me that Colombians should be panicking, but there I go again. The article continues on about how Russia is likely to have "widespread telecommunications failures", but not to worry because the missiles won't launch and the reactors won't melt down. Most of our diplomats won't be there to find out firsthand since they are listed in a section called, "Diplomats Pulling Out." I'm reassured. There is a section on Indonesia that can only be described as comic relief. The headline is "Bank Prints 50 million rupiah." This being equal to an ounce of gold in American dollars. Couldn't resist this being Gold-Eagle.com. Officially, the 100,000 Rupiah note is worth three silver ounces, about $15, even though the article coyly admits that 25% of Indonesian banks closed, "some after bank runs." We're then told that "Indonesia could be spared because it rarely makes full use of its advanced technology. The electricity system, for instance, is automated only on the small but heavily populated islands of Java and Bali." This is a perfect example of why these people drive me nuts. This statement is like saying, "The United States electricity system is automated only in the small but heavily populated areas east of the Appalachian Mountains." Sounds innocuous enough until you figure out that includes tens of millions of people. Another section trumpets, "Officials are sure there will be no Anarchy in the U.K.". Is this why England is mobilizing the biggest security operation since World War Two? And the article lists two screw ups that are Y2K related. I don't expect England to have the level of Y2K chaos of Russia, but BSC consulting new report (December 22nd) makes me nervous since it highlights lack of testing and global network interactions. Both of these being the Achilles Heel of the global Y2K effort, or as BSC's Patrick Moore puts it, "The only way to judge how well a country is doing is not by complacent assurance, but on how rigorous it has been in testing its IT and control systems and whether the interconnectedness is likely to cause related failures." He further goes on to say, "We are now certain that the world is not prepared enough to avoid disruption and we will now have to wait and see how inconvenient this will be."(Reported by newsbytes.com) The USA Today article section on Russia is really strange. Headlined, "Air Travel and nuclear plants among Russia's many unknowns." It begins with the usual, "they don't use computers as much as we do." The article then implies that there isn't enough evidence to judge Russia's air transport system. Bunk. It's been prominently reported on the Internet that 50% is non compliant. The comments about the Nuclear Plants are designed to reassure people-"another big unknown". I'm not reassured. There's nothing I can do about it, but I'm not at all optimistic about Russian nuclear plants. The earlier statement about telecommunications failures isn't even mentioned in the Russian section. There is also a large middle section called "Millennium diagnosis around the World." This is valuable because it lists Y2K in Eastern Standard Time country by country. The upshot is that Russia, Ukraine, China, Indonesia and India are likely to experience Y2K problems of varying degrees. New Zealand, Australia, The United States and Great Britain are listed as well prepared for Y2K, although the article says "The USA is considered well prepared, but there are still concerns about local governments and the 911 emergency systems." But don't worry, Kossi the Klown says to just prepare for a 911 failure like you would for a three day storm. South Africa is listed as well prepared for Y2K, as is Israel and Japan. The article doesn't reflect reality when it says "the lack of computers elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa should make many countries immune to Y2K." Surely they can't mean Nigeria from which we import oil and is a Y2K basket case. How can any article on Y2K in Africa not mention Nigeria? It is rank intellectual dishonesty to do so. Nor does the article mention the Mid East oil producers at all, another glaring omission. Brazil and Italy started late and are listed as "making progress" and "generally prepared." So let me real blunt here. These two statements are lies. Italy is likely to suffer significant Y2K disruptions, "it might experience difficulties in health care and telecommunications" and this obvious gem, "because of links among systems within Europe, that could cause problems elsewhere on the continent." There's that pesky computer networking again. The warning for Brazil is for "a potential for moderate but isolated disruptions in telecommunications, electricity, the health sector and possibly financial services." If that isn't a brief description for an economic collapse, then what is it? And remember Brazil is one of the better prepared South American countries. We already know that only Chile and Argentina have made any Y2K, a feeble one to be sure, effort at all. Venezuela has 30,000 drowned, started late and is undergoing political turmoil. The USA Today article doesn't even mention Venezuela, even though we import 1.7 millions of oil a day from them. But enough for USA Today, America's content free newspaper. The Oregonian reprinted a full page Y2K article(page A-20) on Friday 12-20-99 from the Associated Press in the "News Focus" section. A four part banner section at the top is segmented, "What's the Problem"(the ritual explanation), followed by "Can it be Fixed", "Who's at Risk", and "What could Happen?" A few quotes, "The most serious economic damage is expected in Latin America and Asia." "High on the list of critical systems possibly vulnerable to Y2K are water and sewage systems, power grids and heating systems in developing nations." "While many of those working on Y2K on a daily basis believe Y2K's effects will be moderate", says the International Y2K Cooperation Center(United Nations spawn), "the world has never experienced an event so ubiquitous and simultaneous" (happening everywhere at the same time). How's that for hedging your bets? The large headline is "Is the world ready for Y2K?" Above it is a smaller headline "Billions have been invested in trying to prepare computers for a new millennium." The article headline is "Less Developed Nations likeliest to have trouble." At least this article includes the Mid East as it goes continent by continent around the globe. The first sentence lists a warning from the aforementioned United Nations spawn preparing to hit up the first world for "Y2K humanitarian emergencies." This because "Y2K could lead to humanitarian emergencies." Less waffling than normal, but that's because they are looking for a United States handout. The first section listed is Western Europe in the format of country followed by a status report. Great Britain will be ok except for "some smaller companies." BSC doesn't agree, but we'll know in eight days. Germany is described as "after lagging behind other industrial nations in Y2K preparedness, Germany stepped up efforts substantially this year"... So am I supposed to be impressed? Continuing, "Y2K experts are worried though..." Then there comes one of the most blatant Y2K lies ever put into print. A lie so obvious and easily refuted that it astounds me the AP had the nerve to print it. The status report section says, "Banks are in excellent shape." Say what? We're talking about German banks are we? Like Deutsche Bank which nearly took down the global banking system last week? Seems our ole Deutsche Bank locked up the bank transfer system with a computer problem. A problem so serious that it had to publicly apologize for threatening to collapse the bank transfer system. We're not talking about Wells Fargo sending out CD renewal notices with January 1900 dates here; we're talking about Deutsche Bank being unable to process bank transfers. If they hadn't got the problem fixed within hours, then the whole banking system would have toasted. Excellent shape? Italy is admitted to be a basket case in a rare burst of candor. It is called the "among the worst prepared nations in the West." It is advised to concentrate on "how to cope with Y2K related failures since it is too late for repair work in many sectors." But Italy won't have any effects on the rest of Europe or the world now will it? Spain's public is "generally disinclined to worry." This is followed later on by the statement, "Experts expect some failures but nothing catastrophic." The disinclined Spaniards will know soon whether they should have been more inclined to worry. Eastern Europe is limited to Romania and Russia in this article. Romanian "authorities say they are well prepared, but there are serious concerns about the power grid." Romania should be safe because "most Romanians are paid in cash and the Social Security records are not yet stored on computers." As for electricity in January, who needs it? Russia is described as "experts expect widespread failures in public services." "Potential trouble spots include Gazprom(a major natural gas supplier to Western Europe) and Unified Energy Systems, which controls Russia's electricity grid." "Other weak points include an already failure prone phone system and air traffic control." The status report systems contains these gems. "Whatever the problems, it's possible Russians won't take much notice. Many living in eastern regions are accustomed to going hours, sometimes days, without power or heat." Where to begin. To laugh or to cry, that is the question. Whether it is better to suffer the slurs and lies of outrageous journalism or to just to grab a bottle of Vodka and freeze to death. So we have the Associated Press admitting that Russian telecommunications, air traffic control and electrical power are likely to collapse within ten days. We have them also deviously hiding the fact that this means Western Europe will likely suffer a catastrophic failure in natural gas deliveries in the middle of winter. The major natural gas supplier to Western Europe was my insertion, the AP merely said, "Gazprom the world's largest natural gas supplier." I guess they figured that people wouldn't wonder who they sold it to and if it mattered to the buyers if the gas stopped flowing. But you see the information is there. The Corporate Whore press will claim in an outbreak of journalistic ethics. You wouldn't want us to do your thinking for you would you? The next section is Asia where Australia is described as "widely considered to be among the world's best prepared nations." Except for BSC's disturbing report, I've found no evidence that Australia will suffer catastrophic failures, although the government is preparing to seize personal supplies from people. There is also the tidbit that Bill Gates will be in Sydney Harbor on a pals converted naval vessel to welcome the millennium. I don't blame Bill Gates for hiding in a foreign country during Y2K. It will make it harder for the Y2K crimes judge to bring him to trial. China is described as "the government's lack of transparency on Y2K belies trouble ahead and is aimed at forestalling public panic." There is no way that this applies to Kossi the Klown here in the United States. Further we are told, "China's Y2k work began in earnest 13 months ago, forcing a focus on crucial systems." The first listed crucial sector is of course banking. Surprise surprise! The banking sector "handles 1.2 trillion dollars... and has "ordered paper record keeping as a backup." Let me see here. 1.2 trillion in the system and we will keep track of it using paper, pen and that weird looking thing with the beads. And the AP reporters didn't break into hysterical laughter? The second crucial sector is saving the asses of the butchers of Tienmein Square. The same Chinese leaders who subverted the American electoral process, stole all our nuclear warheads, are taking delivery on a Russian destroyer designed to sink American Aircraft Carriers, are threatening to invade Taiwan, have taken over control of the Panama Canal and in general are evil, evil human beings. This may be why the corrupt business elite in the United States wants to trade with them. I guess I'm just cynical to doubt their word on Y2K compliance. Japan is listed as "although authorities don't think Y2K will trigger major disruptions, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi has advised his countryman to stock up on food, water and other necessities." If only Kossi the Klown and the child king had done the same a year ago. Japan is mobilizing 96,000 troops for New Year's Eve duty, printed $330 billion in extra money, stockpiled 6 months supply of oil and it's major corporations will have 100,000 technicians camped out in their offices in case of Y2K chaos. Makes me wonder what they would have done if they expected major Y2K disruptions. Malaysia, "after a slow start after the 1998 regional financial crisis...has purged its critical sectors of the bug." "Asian consultants now consider Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia to be among Asia's best prepared nations." Malaysia has built the ever popular Y2K command bunker where the elite will watch Y2K unfold and as usual all the military and police will be on duty. Note that consider and not are is used in describing their Y2K preparedness. No consultant would want to flatly state Hong Kong is Y2K ready, especially after their disastrous airport opening. There seems to be a pattern here. The country starts late as in December 1998, ignores large segments of its economy and government services, declares itself Y2K compliant and then coasts blissfully ignorant into December 31st, 1999. The question is what will happen then? Africa is limited to Kenya, South Africa and Nigeria. Kenya contains this riotous statement. "Kenya suffers so many unscheduled power cuts that it might be difficult to know whether any are actually linked to Y2K." There is also this gem, "Kenyans often live in the very conditions that industrialized nations fear Y2K would create." These being, "scheduled power cuts of 18 hours a week" and telephone service that is "frequently out." But the banks are compliant even though "they have no control over the telecommunications systems needed for interbank transfers." So tell me why this doesn't apply anywhere else in the world? South Africa gets good readiness marks at least from this AP writer. There are other sources I've read that describe South Africa in not as good a light. Time will tell. They do have one commodity gold, that should do well. Nigeria is described as "After facing years of brutal, corrupt dictatorship, cash strapped Nigeria faces nearly impossible hurdles"... "the government was able to provide $1 million out of $200 million requested by the Y2K coordinating center."..."Critical sectors have not been fully addressed." The status report section show "official figures claim 88% compliance in telecommunications, 75% in transportation, 50% in government agencies." "Power and telephone companies, noted for their atrocious service-say they are ready..." Highlight mine-THE DOWNSTREAM OIL SECTOR, INCLUDING REFINERIES, AND POWER GENERATING PLANTS COULD FACE PROBLEMS." Can anyone say Nigeria won't export oil to the United States next year? Thank you. The Mid East Section shows politics at its worst. The section on Egypt is obviously designed to not offend the Egyptians after the recent Egypt Air 900 "situation". The entire Egypt section is a puff piece repeating government assurances of Y2K compliance with only a curt, "the private sector is less prepared" for a final sentence. The only admission of "cause for concern" is the health sector where "some equipment in intensive care is not yet compliant." Not yet compliant with ten days to go as "most Egyptians are ignorant of Y2K." Not for much longer they won't. Israeli "government officials reassure people that Y2K will not cause major disruptions, but experts say glitches are likely to occur on the local level." Glitches like an Arab invasion if the military collapses maybe? Israeli power stations are already operating in the Year 2000 according to this article. The usual "smaller localities" could see a "breakdown in water and sewage systems." I don't think anybody in the world has admitted that a big city is likely to suffer a "municipal systems breakdown." The United Arab Emirates is described "like many nations in the Persian Gulf region, the UAE was slow to grasp the importance of Y2K preparations, then scramble to catch up." A Y2K analyst praises UAE for a "tremendous catch-up job." Nothing like a positive status report, "Authorities say the public sectors have tested electricity , water and customs departments, along with telecommunications, simulating the rollover." And the 64,000 dollar question of will the oil flow is delicately not asked. Saudi Arabia is not even mentioned. Wouldn't want to upset the oil futures market now would we? We finally come to the Latin America section, and also near the end of this long essay. We've covered a lot of territory, but as Moses would have said if he had been reading this essay, "I can see the Promised ending." Brazil is defined as "Despite a study by technology consultants placing Brazil among the countries with the highest risk of Y2K related problems, government officials insist everything is under control." Could Kossi the Klown have been cloned like Dolly the sheep? Just a thought for gold-eagle readers to ponder. "There has been no independent monitoring of public sector work in Latin America's most populous nation(100 million), and the outlook for Brazil's private sector appears grim." "Renato Opice Blum, who has studied the problem for two years predicts one third of all business will grind to a halt because of Y2K failures. Blum also notes dozens of municipalities are also at risk and notes that 60% of Brazilian software is pirated(stolen). Using gallows humor, the status report section assures us that the "financial sector is in good shape." "Energy and telecommunications also have undergone testing and claim full Y2k compliance." I hadn't realized that Brazil was quite this bad. Let me also be quite candid here. When Brazil goes, it will take the United States economy with it. No doubt about that in the slightest. Kossi the Klown assures us that everything will be ok in the United States. Guess he must have missed Brazil and the rest of Latin America. If Y2K does nothing else than nuke Latin American economies, it will cause a serious recession in the United States. Repeat. The United States will enter a deep recession merely because of Latin American Y2K noncompliance. Remember the Latin American bond crisis of the 80's, and the Mexican Christmas Crisis of 1994, and the global instability echoing all through Latin American from the Asian financial crisis back in 1997? But Kossi the Klown assures us these were all mirages and that economic history doesn't repeat itself. Let's play logical analysis here called since, then, if, will. Since Hong Kong's computer failure in the airport had these specific economic effects, then if Y2K does the same, the effects will be the same. Namely, measurable economic costs affecting the whole economy; verifiable, economic effects that can be quantified, measured and analyzed. Since Latin America's economy is significantly important to the United States and since three previous times Latin American economic problems were quickly transferred to the United States, then if Y2K causes economic problems, then the effects will be the same. Namely, curtailed exports to Latin America, problems in the bond and stock markets, and a myriad of other effects on the United States economy. It happened before; it will happen again. But by all means, Kossi, refute my logical analysis. Tell me why Y2K won't take out Latin America. Tell me why that won't cause a recession in the United States, won't cause major problems in the stock and bond markets? To conclude we come to Venezuela, described by a consultant as "the poster boy of non preparedness in Latin America." This being before the populist Chavez and his new constitution. This being before the worst natural disaster in Venezuelan history killed thirty to fifty thousand people. The section does admit that Venezuela is "one of the largest foreign oil suppliers to the United States." Officials say they are prepared and consultants say the government is "deluded." Consultants expect disruptions in "electricity grids, telephones, customs services, air traffic control, ports and even the oil industry." Government officials say they are ready and the oil will flow. The status report section assures us, "Experts agree that the state oil monopoly, the financial sector and other key sectors are well prepared." In other words, the status report directly contradicts the paragraph above it. I guess they hope no one will notice. So, without unduly picking on Venezuela, who has suffered devastation at the hands of torrential rains combined with deforestation, I will simply close with a few brief comments. These are two widely available news reports. One is Associated Press and the other is USA Today. The Associated press report is more truthful although it plays games with the truth. The USA Today article is lightweight and full of outright lies and disinformation. I will write no more on the global Y2K impact. My Y2K Global Overview and now this essay have covered the subject adequately. We will know in several days whether my analysis of commonly available information is flawed. And then I will huddle in my bunker in total embarrassment. NOT! DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRL gives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. 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