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What the Chinese might be
thinking
J.R. Nyquist
© 2000 WorldNetDaily.com
A Chinese military document, which discusses China's ongoing
confrontation with Taiwan, has recently received attention in the U.S.
The document is addressed to the regional garrisons, general departments,
armed services and corps-level headquarters of the People's Liberation
Army. It explains China's policy and strategy in broad terms, so that all
military commanders might understand the context of China's ongoing
mobilization.
The document was drafted by the General Political Department of the PLA
and approved by the Central Military Commission Conference. The document
was titled, "Watching Closely for Changes in Relationships with
Taiwan and Enhancing Awareness of Military Leadership in the Current
Situation."
WorldNetDaily reporter Charles Smith has written a brief overview of the
PLA document, outlining its contents. At this time it might be
appropriate to take a closer look, in terms of China's strategic
thinking. Where is the PLA headed? How does the PLA document relate to
events in Russia? How do the Chinese view their chances of winning a
future war against Taiwan or the United States?
The first and most notable assertion made in the PLA document, which runs
contrary to what many of us previously believed, is that Taiwan can be
rapidly overcome by a sudden PLA invasion. Given Taiwan's air power and
the difficulties involved in assaulting an island with few easily invaded
beaches, an attacking Chinese force could only be slaughtered. Yet the
Chinese military leadership expects to defeat Taiwan within a few days.
It seems that China's leadership is unconcerned with the strength of
Taiwan's defenses. They believe that "tactics and timing" are
all that matter.
How can this be?
Even more surprising, the PLA leadership says that "it is better to
fight now than in the future -- the earlier, the better." This
suggests that Beijing views the current "correlation of forces"
as advantageous. In other words, a window of military opportunity has
opened up in the present.
In Western circles it is commonly thought that China will reach a
military window of opportunity in five to 10 years. What accounts for the
difference between the PLA's assessment and that of Western military
experts? It would be logical to conclude that the PLA leaders know
something that we don't. Apparently China has acquired capabilities or
alliance guarantees that alter the present correlation of forces in
China's favor. This is clearly indicated in the PLA document. This means
that China's leaders expect to surprise the United States. Given the
traditionally cautious behavior of Beijing oligarchs, more than one
surprise would have to backstop a bold initiative like the invasion of
Taiwan. Beijing cannot simply rely on one trump card.
A Western military expert might conclude that the Chinese are bluffing,
that they have purposely released this PLA document to spook us -- to
frighten us into backing down, so that they can swallow up Taiwan without
risking a single soldier.
Of course, America should not overestimate China's power. That would be a
mistake. But underestimating China would also be a mistake.
How do we evaluate Chinese military power in the current situation?
Consider the following factors: China has cleverly pocketed key American
business people; China has benefited militarily and economically from
shady dealings with the Clinton administration; China has also engaged in
successful espionage against America's nuclear labs (as suggested in the
Cox report); China's military leaders, working indirectly through front
companies, now control the ports of entry at the Panama Canal -- a
significant logistical choke-point.
Where is the bluff in all these moves?
Every item fits with a general pattern of painstaking strategic
preparation. A path to victory has been paved in three dimensions
simultaneously -- diplomatic, economic and military-technical. Every
listed item has been crafted and orchestrated for a future moment of
exploitation. And here is why the PLA thinks its window of opportunity
has arrived. Eventually the Americans will realize that China has been
positioning itself, just as former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm.
Thomas Moorer first pointed out. It is therefore only a matter of time
before the Americans counter-act China's elaborate preparations. With
Clinton's presidency coming to an end early next year, the best time to
act is now. As more and more Americans realize the danger from China,
this window of opportunity cannot remain open indefinitely. "Act
sooner rather than later," say China's strategists. And this makes
perfect sense.
There is also the question of North Korea's force mobilization -- an
arduous undertaking with Beijing standing in the background.
As this column pointed
out on Thursday, Russia has been
mobilizing as well, and rapidly modernizing its armed forces in the last
10 months. The fact of these mobilizations needs to be hammered home. It
cannot be repeated often enough.
One would have to be blind to miss the pattern in all this. Let us not
forget that Russia, China and North Korea are among the bitterest enemies
America has ever known. In fact, we ought to wonder if the logic of this
enmity has truly lapsed.
Why should it lapse?
America is in trouble. The present danger has not been realized. China's
military leaders say they can blitz Taiwan -- and take it -- before the
United States can bring up aircraft carriers and Marines. That is what
the PLA document asserts. In other words, China expects to hold and
defend Taiwan regardless of what America does. To this end the People's
Liberation Army recently created a new operational headquarters to
oversee the coordination of China's submarine fleet with the PLA's Second
(missile) Artillery Command. New guided missile destroyers, purchased
from Russia, will also be joining this group of forces. Their mission is
to sink any approaching American carrier groups.
But aren't American carriers invulnerable to attack? Wouldn't America's
high-tech ships and aircraft blow China's junky fleet out of the water?
Chinese ballistic missiles move faster than carrier aircraft. Long before
an American air strike could be launched against China's missile bases
and submarines, the Chinese missiles could launch their own attack --
against the American carriers.
And what kind of warheads would the Chinese put in their missiles?
Consider China's development of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons.
These are weapons that can fry the electrical infrastructure of a ship.
EMP warheads can blow out military computers, radar systems and sensors.
On Feb. 12 the PLA leadership called for "expedited development of
electromagnetic pulse bombs and missiles as a means to destroy American
aircraft carrier fleets." According to Chinese tactical theory,
America's Achilles heel is in the "electronic gear" its forces
increasingly rely upon. Knock out a carrier battle group's electronics
and it becomes a sitting duck to attacks from guided missile destroyers
and submarines.
As it happens, EMP weapons need not directly hit their target, but can be
detonated dozens of miles away, to destroy the target's electronic nerve
center. When an EMP weapon explodes, a powerful electromagnetic charge is
produced which is absorbed by electronic equipment up to a certain
distance. This charge acts as a power surge, with immediate destructive
effects. According to one Chinese military writer, "If the central
nervous system of an aircraft carrier is paralyzed, even a comparatively
backward naval vessel ... will be able to attack (it)."
EMP weapons might also enable a successful invasion of Taiwan. Assuming
the Taiwan air force has an electronic Achilles heel, like the U.S. Navy,
a Chinese EMP strike could effectively cripple Taiwan's sophisticated
fighters and bombers, so that the technologically inferior PLA air force,
with 5,000 aircraft in position, could deliver a severe blow to the
island's defenses. This would pave the way for PLA marine and paratroop
landings. With its armed forces paralyzed and decimated, Taiwan would
quickly collapse.
It should be noted that the PLA document we've been discussing, which
asserts the PLA's ability to overrun Taiwan, was distributed to China's
generals on Aug. 1, 1999. Coincidentally, that is when Russia suffered an
unprecedented and unprovoked "Islamic incursion." Evidence
suggests, however, that this was a contrived provocation to justify a
nationwide Russian mobilization for the declared purpose of invading tiny
Chechnya. Was China's mobilization, ostensibly due to an off-hand remark
by the president of Taiwan, also contrived in the same sense? If so, the
timing here suggests close coordination between Beijing and Moscow. In
both capitals, an alleged internal crisis was used to cover general
preparations for a conflict that might conceivably extend far beyond
Chechnya and Taiwan.
Given the coincidence of Russian and Chinese "internal crises,"
assuming both countries are ready to risk war with America, what
mechanism would be used to set events in motion?
As stated in the PLA document, since Taiwan refuses to surrender its
independence as a state, China can initiate hostilities at will. It is
only a question of tactics and timing. Whatever moment is chosen will be
optimal from Beijing's point of view. If Moscow is consulted, as China
clearly needs Russia's backing, then Moscow will also have some notion of
an optimal moment for putting things into motion. If China's new battle
tactics are successful, U.S. forces will enter the battle zone just as
Taiwan has collapsed. At that point the United States will either accept
the Chinese conquest of Taiwan as an accomplished fact, or the U.S. will
launch punitive strikes against China's strategic infrastructure. This
latter course was effective against Yugoslavia and Iraq, but it will not
work against China.
The PLA leaders also believe, with absolute assurance, that Chinese
forces will seriously damage any American naval group that refuses to
withdraw from the Taiwan area. As the PLA document says, China is not a
small country like Iraq or Yugoslavia. China's size and its willingness
to suffer must be taken into account. Therefore, Beijing is confident
that its forces will prevail regardless of the conflict's duration or
intensity.
According to PLA strategists, if the United States attempts to use
nuclear weapons to avoid defeat, China will not hesitate to wage a
full-scale nuclear war. In the event of nuclear escalation, the General
Political Department of the PLA says the Chinese generals "have
built up the capability for second and third nuclear strikes, and are
fairly confident in fighting a nuclear war."
In fact, a secret agreement between Russia and China, regarding a future
nuclear war with the United States, might already be in place. This
possibility has been suggested by Peter Vincent Pry, a nuclear war expert
and former CIA analyst who now advises the House of Representatives. In
recent months, high-level meetings between Russian and Chinese officials
have been intensive and continuous.
It is doubtful that Russian and Chinese officials are merely discussing
trade issues. Those who are able to detect an intrigue know that
something more is going on.
History teaches that war is always inevitable. Somehow Americans have
come to think that we are exempt from this inevitability. We talk of
peace with murderers and gangsters. But peace with such people is always
an illusion.
It is time to consider the big picture. We must dispense with our
childish political illusions. We must hold fast to our allies and
friends, and we must oppose our enemies. Of course, we have yet to
acknowledge that our enemy exists. To be sure, he knows that we exist.
And perhaps his job is to make us disappear.
J.R. Nyquist is a WorldNetDaily contributing editor and author of
'Origins of the Fourth World War.'
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