WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a prelude to war! STRATFOR.COM Weekly Global Intelligence Update 20 April 2000 Ukraine: the Rope in the China-Russia Tug-of-War Summary China is attempting to eliminate its intelligence blind spot with regard to Russia - a failing dramatically exposed when Beijing was caught off guard by the sudden resignation of Boris Yeltsin less than a month after he visited China. To achieve this, China is using Ukrainian facilities to train several intelligence officers in technical Russian vocabulary and signals intelligence. For Ukraine, this is a method of quietly asserting its continued political independence. Analysis According to a report on the Moscow Military News Agency web site, five Chinese intelligence officers are learning Russian at Ukraine's Lvov Polytechnics University. After they complete their language training they will continue studies at the Kharkov Radio- Electronic Warfare Institute. Once these five officers complete their training, another 18 will begin their studies at Lvov. If true, such a move demonstrates that Beijing is scrambling to fill a large hole in China's intelligence gathering operations, and the Ukrainians are willing to help. Such actions also signal that the Sino-Russian relationship is not as firm as Beijing and Moscow would like it to seem. China is searching for more reliable intelligence on its "ally"; Ukraine is more than happy to help. China and Russia are unsure as to the boundaries of their relationship as the leaderships in both Russia continue to evolve. This lack of understanding is delaying the long-expected Sino- Russian summit; confusion breeds hesitation. In fact, all China and Russia have to show for their "strategic partnership" to date is increased arms sales and preliminary discussions on two petroleum pipelines. This lack of common ground and understanding was highlighted when President Boris Yeltsin resigned on New Year's Eve, catching Chinese officials off guard.This also demonstrated in vivid detail a severe weakness in the Chinese intelligence apparatus.http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/0003210056.htm Both Beijing and Moscow are in flux, making it difficult for each to understand the other. Now China is scrambling to crack open its "ally." Russian language training and signals intelligence training should help China close a gaping hole in its intelligence activities. For China, utilizing Ukrainian facilities is a natural choice. Outside of Russia, Ukraine is home to the most Russians and the largest Soviet military complex, so the Chinese can gain a fair understanding of how Russia as a country thinks and works. For its part, Ukraine is desperate to weaken Russia any way it can. Economically, this is almost impossible, Russia can easily dominate Ukraine. Politically, it lacks the weight to damage Russia. By helping China, Ukraine can work to subvert Russia's most public political relationship. Ukraine is also fairly close to NATO; Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation makes Ukraine that much more valuable to the alliance. http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/0004040055.htm The Sino-Russian relationship continues its balancing act between cooperation and competition. While both still wish to counter the United States, Russia is withholding basic political information from Beijing. In response China is revving up its intelligence operations to uncover that information. Kiev may soon find itself not only the rope in the Russia-West tug-of-war, but in the Russia- China competition as well. (c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. 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