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>From Singapore to Port Said: China's Influence Over the World's
Waterways


SUMMARY:

As the U.S. House of Representatives debates the normalization of
trade relations with China, Beijing is using trade to establish a
strategic presence in the world's major waterways. On May 7, the
Chinese government finalized an agreement with Egypt, allowing
ships of the China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) to use port
facilities along the Suez Canal. The deal may be pure business, but
COSCO's connections to the Chinese military are difficult to
ignore.

Analysis:

The Chinese merchant ship Empress Phoenix called at Port Said,
Egypt on May 8, one day after Egyptian and Chinese officials inked
an agreement to allow Chinese vessels to operate at the port. Two
details make this event noteworthy. Port Said is the gateway to the
Suez Canal. And the vessel is owned by a company, China Ocean
Shipping Company (COSCO), with strong links to the People's
Liberation Army (PLA).

The business aspects of this affair are straightforward. The
official Xinhua news agency reported that the agreement will allow
additional Chinese vessels to load and unload cargo at the port.
Until now, these ships have had to dock at the Israeli port of
Haifa on the Mediterranean Sea. But in a larger sense, the
developments in the Suez Canal are part of an emerging pattern in
which companies under the influence of Beijing's military are
developing an important presence in the world's major waterways.
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The Empress Phoenix is owned by China Ocean Shipping Company
(COSCO), the second-largest shipping company in the world. While it
has an independent board of directors, it is a state-owned
enterprise whose leadership reportedly has ties to the People's
Liberation Army (PLA), which helps fund itself through business
ventures. The exact operational level of the PLA's involvement in
COSCO is unclear and some dismiss it altogether. Others are more
strident. Retired Adm. Thomas Moorer, former chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last fall
that the company is "the merchant marine arm of the PLA." In 1996,
the Empress Phoenix was found smuggling 2,000 Chinese AK-47s into
Oakland, California.

The shipping deal is the first solid deal to emerge from Chinese
President Jiang Zemin's trip to Egypt last month. Jiang met with
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the two pledged to broaden
bilateral cooperation between the two countries, especially in the
economic realm. On an immediate and practical level, COSCO's new
access to Said is pure business. Shipping companies need ports, and
Egypt needs growth. Indeed, the captain of the Empress Phoenix
reportedly said that COSCO vessels will arrive at the port on a
weekly basis.

However, the deal also has strategic meaning. Not only will COSCO
vessels have a place to dock in one of the world's busiest
waterways; 16,000 vessels transit the Suez Canal each year,
carrying 12 million containers. COSCO's new presence increases the
overall level of Chinese participation at the Egyptian Port. Hong
Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa, another firm with reported ties to
the PLA, is part owner of a 30-year concession to develop the
eastern portion of Port Said.

In the event of an international crisis, Beijing could exploit
these facilities. Port Said sits along one of the important transit
routes for aircraft carriers of the U.S. Navy, which regularly
travel the length of the canal as they transit from the
Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. If these
vessels were unable to use the canal they would have to travel
thousands of extra miles, around the Cape of Good Hope in South
Africa, adding about three weeks to their journey. Intelligence on
the movement of all kinds of naval forces can also be collected
with greater ease.
___________________________________________________________________
For more information on China, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/asia/countries/china/default.htm

For more information on Egypt, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/countries/Egypt/default.htm
___________________________________________________________________

The use of Port Said completes a triad of business arrangements at
the world's major waterways. Hutchison Whampoa's business interests
near the Panama Canal have been widely publicized, though by itself
the canal holds little strategic importance. Five percent of world
trade travels through the canal's locks, but U.S. carriers have
been unable to squeeze through for decades. COSCO has a large
presence in Singapore, which guards the southern entrance to the
Strait of Malacca, as well as Port Klang, a Malaysian facility at
the northern end of these strategically important straits.

The shipping companies associated with the PLA are taking advantage
both of their immense size and the need for investment in the aging
ports of the developing world. In a peacetime context, China is
clearly attempting to embrace global trade - the very issue
Washington is debating right now. But the PLA itself is using
peacetime to improve its ability to operate at sea. In addition to
the on-again, off-again threats to Taiwan, the navy is expanding
and outposts on the Spratly Islands have recently been reinforced.

And advancing strategic interests under the banner of legitimate
business interests is an excellent tactic.

_______________________________________________
Would you like to know more about the Middle East?
http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/default.htm?section=5
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(c) 2000 WNI, Inc.


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