from http://www.tzemach.org/fyi/assad.htm Forwarded for information and discussion only ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ WINSTON MID EAST ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY June 10, 2000 Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Please disseminate & re-post. If you publish, send us a copy. Please see our web sites at http://www.gamla.org.il & http://freeman.io.com HAFEZ AL-ASSAD IS DEAD by Emanuel A. Winston, Middle East Analyst & Commentator Hafez al-Assad was many things to many people and his death is being explained mostly by newscasters who knew little about the man. Politicians are shedding crocodile tears as if a great statesman has passed instead of the cruel dictator and killer that he was. Strange how death turns an evil man into someone noble. Bill Clinton is already shedding those familiar tears and revising history regarding Assad’s true character as fast as he can. Yassir Arafat, the man whom Assad would not allow into his country, has declared a three day mourning period. Assad and Arafat shared an intense mutual hatred and it was only a matter of time before one of Assad’s terrorist proxies assassinated Arafat. But, all of that is mere trivia when one observes the potential ripple effect of his death. Keep in mind that Assad ruled as a minority Alawite (member of a Muslim sect) representing 10% of the population. Sunni Muslims account for 85% and there is a 5% Christian minority. Assad ruled through terror as most Arab dictators do. His army and numerous secret police sections were staffed at the officer level by Alawites. The population was terrorized on the outside by his large army and on the inside by his terrorist secret police. This is how he kept the Sunnis under tight control. The Sunnis, however, regarded themselves as culturally and intellectually superior to the Alawites, who they looked upon as the proverbial peasants. The coming ripple effect may include some or all of the following: Once they recover their sense of power, the Sunnis could rise up in the weeks and months to come and drive the Alawites out of Syria. While in power and control of the military, the Alawites would commandeer the best of Syria’s military hardware and flee toward Beirut and then Northwest toward the coastal cities on the Mediterranean of Latakiya, Baniyas, or Babenna which have a strong Alawite presence and are between Lebanon and Turkey. There they could establish a well-armed narrow state of their own. (They will not flee toward Hama where Assad and his brother Rifat slaughtered 20,000 Sunnis with artillery and gas.) Also keep in mind that Assad has been accumulating an inventory of long range missiles with chemical warheads. The fleeing Alawites cannot expect to be welcomed by the Lebanese who suffered under Assad. Besides in 1970 when the Lebanese took in the Palestinian refugees (ejected from Jordan for trying to take over that country) their guests savaged them for the next 12 years. The Alawite-dominated army will first support Assad’s son Bashar as their puppet leader for what may be their short term hold on power. If they can maintain Assad’s former grip on power and make it last, at least for a while, they may win. Otherwise they will break and flee the rage of the Sunnis. My bet is the Sunnis will wake up, realize their power and drive the Alawites out of Syria. Rifat, Assad’s ruthless and cruel brother has influence and power within the Alawite Army and will, no doubt, try to come to power. This will result in a power struggle between factions of the Army with Bashar and Assad’s brother-in-law on one side. It’s the brother-in-law who controlled the growing and trafficking of drugs from the Beka’a Valley in partnership with the Columbia drug cartel. Twenty (20%) of the drugs landed in America came from the Beka’a Valley. Clinton arranged payment to Assad to cease growing drugs but the money was absorbed and the cash crops continue to grow. Clinton did not challenge Assad even though the drugs he produced were destroying the youth of America. Assad was too important politically to Clinton. In Lebanon, there could be a movement to break away from Syria and force Syria’s 40,000 man army (who are primarily stationed in the Beka’a Valley) out of Lebanon. Syria’s Alawite dominated Army, with its Sunni foot soldiers, could face a strange coalition of Lebanese Muslims and Christians who want their country back. Iraq and Iran also have a vested interest in Syria with their own teams inside of Syria to side with one or the other power brokers trying to take them over. Keep in mind that Iraq has a long border with Syria with a Sunni majority also under the terror control of Saddam Hussein. Israel could explore the many cracks opening up in Syria’s control structure but that is unlikely under the weak leadership of Ehud Barak. The Left Labor Party in Israel has sold themselves on the fiction that giving up the Golan Heights would mute the hatred and warlike attitude of Hafez al-Assad. Unfortunately, that is a fiction concocted in their own minds. Assad did not need nor necessarily want the Golan, particularly if attached to a peace deal. Nevertheless, now that Assad is dead, look for Barak and his spokesmen to try and sell the Israeli people on the idea that now is an even better time to divest itself of the defensive high ground of the Golan Heights and 40% of Israel’s fresh water resource coming from it. Clinton, too, will weigh in with his spin team to offer a waterfall of ideas as to why Israel can win the hearts of the Syrians and bask in peace forever. Barak is definitely fearful of using the opportunity to break up the power structure of Syria in the face of Clinton and European disapproval. Apparently, Barak and Clinton were well aware of Assad’s imminent death and were desperate to abandon the Golan, regardless of who was to be Assad’s successor. Barak lied and planned to trick the Golan settlers and the Israeli people in a false dash for peace. Who will mourn with crocodile tears the passing of such a monster? Well, Clinton already has gone through his act ignoring Syria’s participation in the deaths of 241 Marines in Lebanon in 1983 and the blowing up of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut. One can sense the impatience of Ehud Barak, Shimon Peres, Yossi Beilin to join in the accolades with such statements that "Assad was a man you could trust once he gave his word". Surely they would go to Damascus to be in the funeral procession in a heartbeat, regardless of the hatred Assad expressed for Israel. Keep an eye on Assad’s funeral. We will see Madame Albright in the entourage telling us ‘what a great man Assad was’ and that he was just ‘on the verge’ of accepting the Golan for peace. Mubarak of Egypt will try to step into center stage to pick up the following of Assad. Mubarak has used almost all of America’s free aid to buy weapons and build his army. Having joined Assad and Iran in a Trilateral Defense Pact, signed in Iran, Mubarak must now decide who to back in Syria. Israel, after all, must still be the enemy in between these two powers that justifies their massive armies. Putin of Russia may come just to see if he could smooth the collection of Syria’s $8 Billion dollar debt for past weapons’ sales and for his re-entry into the Middle East with new weapons’ sales. France, will be there for whatever she can get. Trailed by CNN and the NEW YORK TIMES, all the phony politicians will turn up, fashionably draped in black crepe. Surely, Deborah Sontag, Anthony Lewis, Tommy Friedman, Gerald Kessel, Peter Jennings, et al will have appropriate sad columns or commentaries, having lost one of their favorite anti-Israel personalities. I am reminded of the hated Herod who left orders to have the husbands of the court ladies killed so that when they followed his funeral procession, they would be crying. Lastly, I find myself humming the tune from the old movie in "The Wizard of Oz". The house had just fallen on the wicked witch of the North and all the little people started to sing: "Ding dong, the Witch is dead; which old witch, the Wicked Witch. Ding Dong, the Wicked Witch is Dead." __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Photos -- now, 100 FREE prints! http://photos.yahoo.com <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. 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