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The Russia Journal
November 11-17, 2000 Russia prepares for a Bush presidency By EKATERINA LARINA The neck-and-neck and still-undecided U.S. presidential election may have Americans on edge and the rest of the world totally baffled, but political discussions in Russia during the week focused on the implications of a George W. Bush presidency. "A Bush victory would be positive for Russia," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, the president of Fond Politika. "For us, despite the Republicans' more threatening rhetoric, things were always better with the Republicans than with the Democrats." Many others agreed, saying that Russia might have warmer personal feelings for Democratic contender and current Vice President Al Gore, but they think that nonetheless, Bush could actually prove a better partner in getting things done around the world. "Detente began when [Richard] Nixon was in power; the Cold War ended while [Ronald] Reagan was president; and START-2 was signed while George Bush Sr. was president," Nikonov said, referring to three other Republican presidents. "But it was under [Harry] Truman that the Cold War began; the Cuban missile crisis took place during [John F.] Kennedy's time; and the [Bill] Clinton presidency saw an eight-year long worsening in Russian-American relations," he added, naming off three Democratic leaders. Russian observers are unanimous in saying that a Republican administration would be less inclined than a Democratic one to meddle in Russia's domestic affairs. The experts welcome even the fact that the Republicans would make more demanding and pragmatic partners, saying that this would do more to help the Russians bring order to their affairs than the Democrats' abstract rhetoric. "The harsher the demands on us, the quicker we'll understand that there is no easy road and that we have to work hard to hold on to our place under the sun," said Fyodor Shelov-Kovedyayev, who was a first deputy foreign minister in the early 1990s. "There's an old German proverb that goes: 'Sometimes, to take a step forward, all you need is a kick in the backside.' " Shelov-Kovedyayev has worked with both the Bush Sr. and Clinton administrations. He said that the Republicans make a point of standing up for issues they consider part of U.S. national interests, but at the same time, they know how to respect the clearly motivated interests of their partners. "If we have a clearly thought out and formulated national interest, which we can explain and justify, the Republicans will show respect for our point of view," said Shelov-Kovedyayev. "With the Democrats, we would see a more abstract approach, more humanitarian rhetoric and so on." Nikonov thought the Republicans could have more freedom than the Democrats in their relations with Russia. Firstly, because they wouldn't have to fear being accused of betraying national interests, and secondly, because there are a number of moments that cast a shadow over Russia's cooperation with the Democrats. "The Republicans have a clear pro-American policy and are not afraid to be accused of betraying national interests," he said. "At the same time, paradoxical as it may seem, it is the Democratic establishment that counts among its ranks the greatest number of people from Eastern Europe, who have a whole range of prejudices. Most Republicans, meanwhile, are Anglo-Saxons and don't feel any genetic complex toward Russia." Even Russia's Communists, who by definition are on the left of the political spectrum, feel more sympathy for Bush Jr. and would rather see a Republican administration in the United States, according to observers. "The Republicans always followed a more balanced, conservative policy with regard to Russia, and unlike the Democrats, didn't try to meddle in our domestic affairs," said Andrei Andreyev, a spokesman for the State Duma's Communists. "As for the fact that the Republicans won't be lenient when it comes to debts and loans, it's high time we learned to live according to our means." In his statements on the U.S. elections, President Vladimir Putin was careful not to show outward sympathy for either one or other of the candidates. Speaking to journalists in Rostov-on-Don, he said only that the United States "is one of our most important partners, and we have therefore examined carefully the programs of both candidates. [Both programs] speak clearly of developing relations with Russia, and this approach suits us." Other officials have also kept to a carefully neutral position. "I can't add anything to what the president said," said Security Council spokesman Vladimir Nikanorov. "We respect the choice of the American people and will work with the president they elect." Kremlin spokespeople repeated the official line that Russia can't and shouldn't comment on the choice of the American people. They also took pleasure in repeating the joke that, facing the problem of having to recount votes in Florida, the Americans turned to Russian electoral officials for help. The result was that in a matter of hours, Vladimir Putin took the lead. While many in Russia took the whole affair of the vote recount with a pinch of irony, not many seriously agreed with head of the Central Electoral Committee Alexander Veshnyakov's statement that this demonstrated the superiority of the Russian direct election system over the U.S. two-tier system. "Obviously, since the American electoral system was created 200 years ago, it's a bit archaic, but I think things won't go beyond a burst of discussion on improving it," Nikonov said. "The American system is like a Formula One race where two cars are nose to nose and you need a photo finish to determine the winner; and the Russian system is like free races on Minsk Shosse, where anyone who wants can participate, but you've got a motorcade roaring through with lights flashing, and traffic cops always stopping everyone else." The Communist Party's Andreyev said that if Russia had any experience it could share with America, it was his party's experience in fighting election fraud. "This chaos when it comes to vote counting is a scandal over there, but it happens here every time we have elections," Andreyev said. "A lot of people are surprised to see that there too, you can have boxes turn up with votes that haven't been counted. We could share our experience in fighting election fraud. We've got more experience than anyone else." |
