-Caveat Lector-

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-levy051101.shtml

Fewer Gun Injuries…
  Good news, bad logic.

  By Robert A. Levy, senior fellow in constitutional studies at the Cato Institute, 
and author of Pistol Whipped: Baseless Lawsuits, Foolish
  Laws May 9, 2001, available at www.cato.org
  May 11, 2001 9:45 a.m.

    un-related deaths in the United States, down 26 percent from 1993 to 1998, are now 
at their lowest level since 1966,
  according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Anti-gun 
advocates are quick to credit tougher gun
  controls. The National Rifle Association touts safety courses. More likely, the good 
news about declining gun injuries can be
  traced to better law enforcement, a booming economy, the waning crack trade, and an 
aging population.

  Tougher gun controls don't explain the parallel drop in non-gun-related homicides. 
And NRA safety courses don't explain
  comparable decreases in gun assaults as well as accidents. That doesn't mean safety 
courses are a bad idea. They probably
  cost little to administer, and could be helpful in curbing accidents — especially 
those involving younger gun users.

  On the other hand, more rigorous gun controls are not only ineffective, but also 
counter-productive. Many of the recommended
  regulations would make matters worse by stripping law-abiding citizens of their 
chief means of self-defense. Historically, more
  gun laws have gone hand-in-hand with an explosion of violent crime. Only during the 
past decade have we seen dramatic
  reductions in violence, as reflected in the CDC report. Yet according to the U.S. 
Bureau of Justice, the number of circulating
  guns in the United States grew by 10 percent during the mid-1990s.

  A day after the CDC report was released, the Associated Press published its analysis 
of the latest statistics from the Bureau
  of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (BATF). Worldwide production of handguns fell 52 
percent from a peak in 1993 to roughly
  1.5 million guns in 1999. Predictably, gun-control crusaders pointed to the 1993 
Brady Act, which requires a background check
  for all purchases from licensed gun dealers. No doubt it's more difficult to buy a 
gun from a licensed dealer nowadays. It's also
  more costly for licensed dealers to operate. That's why their number has plummeted 
from a peak of 284,000 in 1992 to 104,000
  today.

  To the extent that the Brady Act has frustrated gun sales by licensed dealers, the 
Act has worsened the problem of gun
  violence. Criminals who are not deterred by laws against armed robbery, rape, and 
murder will hardly be deterred by laws
  requiring background checks. Instead, sales get re-routed to unlicensed dealers and, 
if those sales are somehow proscribed, to
  the black market. Meanwhile, smaller gun makers are going out of business; two 
California dealers have declared bankruptcy;
  Colt announced a layoff of 300 workers, then withdrew from the consumer handgun 
business, focusing instead on military
  weapons and collectibles.

  Higher dealer costs are showing up in higher prices. Top-quality handguns are now 
priced in the $350 to $550 range, with
  fewer guns available for less than $100. Not surprisingly, higher prices have less 
impact on criminal demand than on the
  demand from price-sensitive, inner-city citizens. Peaceable, would-be gun owners 
cannot buy affordable handguns, which
  might otherwise have been used to ward off assailants. Even Dennis Henigan, legal 
director of the Center to Prevent Handgun
  Violence, concedes that "most people who buy handguns do so for self-defense." It is 
perverse and immoral to keep firearms
  away from prospective victims of violence.

  Fortunately, citizens who are put off by intrusive background checks have a couple 
of options. First, rather than upgrade to a
  newer model, they can rely on a weapon already owned or one purchased from a private 
party. Older guns function quite well
  notwithstanding their age. That explains why the number of firearms in circulation 
continues to grow even though fewer guns
  are being manufactured each year. Second, potential victims of criminal predators 
can arm themselves with rifles or shotguns,
  neither of which is subject to background checks. That may account for the 
increasing production of those weapons — 2.8
  million in 1999, up eight percent from 1993 — despite a declining production of 
handguns.

  For those residents of high-risk areas who live in fear but are reluctant to own a 
gun, the CDC report of substantial reductions
  in violent crime is most gratifying. Indeed, the lower level of violence is the most 
likely reason for the drop in gun production.
  As criminal activity diminishes, the demand for weapons of self-defense shrinks in 
tandem. The anti-gun lobby has that
  correlation exactly backwards. It's not that guns in the hands of more Americans 
cause crime. Quite the contrary, it's crime
  that causes more Americans to need guns.

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