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Tuesday, October 23, 2001

'On-to-Baghdad!' or 'Stop at Kabul!'?
By Patrick J. Buchanan
© 2001 Creators Syndicate, Inc.
Neither the Taliban, nor al-Qaida, nor bin Laden is in the bag yet,
but the war drums have already begun beating for phase II. If the war
hawks have their way, Iraq is next on the target list.

Three weeks ago, President Bush was warned in an open letter that his
failure to attack Iraq "will constitute an early and perhaps decisive
surrender in the war on international terrorism."

The ultimatum was signed by 41 foreign policy veterans and writers, including Jeanne 
Kirkpatrick, William Bennett and editors at The Weekly Standard, Commentary and The 
New Republic. National Review has now enlisted, The
Wall Street Journal is in full shriek, and syndicated columnists are slapping on their 
war paint.

As Cato the Elder ended every speech in the Roman forum with "Delenda est Carthago!" 
("Carthage must be destroyed!"), so our neo-conservatives have decreed that Iraq must 
be destroyed.

Now, if Iraq colluded in the mass murder of 5,500 Americans, Saddam's regime should be 
destroyed and the pounding not stop until he is dead or gone. But the problem is this: 
There is as yet no hard evidence of Iraqi compl
icity in the crime, but vast evidence of Saudi connections and involvement with the 
Taliban, al-Qaida and Osama.

And if Iraq is not guilty of the atrocities of Sept. 11, and the U.S. lashes out at 
Baghdad, the Islamic world will see it not as a valid act of justice by a wounded, 
grieving America, but as an act of vengeance by an arr
ogant superpower on a small nation that defied it. Moreover, this war on Iraq would 
not be Desert Storm II.

In 1991, President Bush had a 28-nation alliance and General Schwarzkopf had tens of 
thousands of troops from Britain, France, Syria and Egypt. They will not be there this 
time. Even Tony Blair has told Mr. Bush he will t
ake a pass. And the Saudis have put us on notice that their bases are not available 
for an attack on another Arab country.

This time, America goes in alone. Moreover, the mighty Army of Desert Storm, like 
Lee's Army of Northern Virginia, is history. In a dozen years, U.S. defense spending 
has fallen from Reagan's 6 percent of GDP to Clinton's
 3 percent. Adds Oliver North, "We have cut our army divisions from 18 to 10. We now 
have 13 fighter wings, down from 24. Our Navy, which boasted 546 ships, today has only 
316."

In 1990, the U.S. had an open-and-shut case of naked aggression by Iraq that even the 
U.N. could recognize and our enemies could not deny. But without evidence of Saddam's 
collusion in the terrorism of Sept. 11, an attack
 on Iraq would be seen as an unprovoked, unjust war that could bring Arab and Islamic 
mobs into the streets from Morocco to Indonesia, risking the survival of Egypt, Jordan 
and Saudi Arabia. What would it profit America t
o march to Baghdad, only to have Cairo fall to anti-American mobs?

Writing in The Weekly Standard, William Kristol and Robert Kagan, those Hardy Boys of 
global hegemony, seem to revel in what is coming. This war "is not going to stop in 
Afghanistan," they exult, "it is going to spread an
d engulf a number of countries. ... It is going to resemble the clash of civilizations 
that everyone has hoped to avoid ... it is possible that the demise of some 'moderate' 
Arab regimes may be just round the corner."

But while the little magazines and big talkers whoop it up for a war of civilizations, 
neither Congress nor the country is clamoring for a war on radical Arabdom or militant 
Islam. And a lesson from Vietnam ought especial
ly to be remembered now: "Before we commit the army, commit the nation."

Finally, there is a small matter of the Constitution. Congress, alone, has the power 
to declare war. Before launching Desert Storm, President Bush won the authorization of 
Congress to go to war. But this President Bush ha
s not been authorized to attack nations other than Afghanistan. And the GOP chair of 
the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Henry Hyde, opposes a war on Iraq, and would stop 
at Kabul.

If the neo-conservatives want their war on Iraq or a "clash of civilizations" between 
the West and Islam, or, since Europe will sit it out, between the U.S.-Israel on one 
side, and all the rogue states on the State Depart
ment list on the other, they should make the case to Congress and the country. For if 
there was one principle for which the Old Right stood, it was no more presidential 
wars. No more Koreas. No more Vietnams. No more unde
clared wars.

This time, let us follow the Constitution as the founding fathers
intended, and let the old debate begin anew: America First vs. Global
Empire. The Old Republic vs. the New World Order. And let us
rediscover what it means to be a conservative.
Pat Buchanan has been a senior adviser to three presidents, twice a
candidate for the Republican presidential nomination and the
presidential nominee of the Reform Party in 2000. During his White
House years, Buchanan wrote foreign policy speeches and attended four
summits, including Nixon's opening to China in 1972 and Reagan's
Reykjavik summit with Mikhail Gorbachev in 1986.  On leaving the
White House, Buchanan became a columnist and founded three of the
most enduring talk shows in TV history: "The McLaughlin Group," CNN's
"Capital Gang" and "Crossfire."  Buchanan has written six books,
including the New York Times best-seller, "A Republic Not an Empire"
and a Washington Post best-seller about growing up in the nation's
capital, "Right From the Beginning." His newest book, "Death of the
West" will be out in January.

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