-Caveat Lector-

http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~pdscott/qf5.html

Pre-1990 Drug Networks Being Restored Under New
Coalition

When we look at the Afghan leaders whom the US
considers eligible to fill out an interim government,
we see that many are figures implicated in
drug-trafficking in the 1980s. The BBC compiled a list
of these leaders in November 2001. Leading the list
was President Burhanuddin Rabbani, whose home province
of Badakshan became in the 1990s, while under his
control, "the stepping stone for an entirely new means
of conveying opiates to Europe, via Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and Russia's Central Asian railway service"
(Griffin, Reaping the Whirlwind, 150). Veteran General
Rashid Dostum, in Mazar-i-Sharif, "was suspected of
earning huge profits by exporting drugs via
Uzbekistan" (Cooley, Unholy Wars, 155).

Of the seven Pashtun leaders named, three (Pir Sayed
Gailani and Gulbeddin Hekmatyar, and Hazi Bashir) have
been linked in the past to drug-trafficking. A fourth,
Younus Khalis, is a powerful figure from drug-rich
Nangahar province, and is the man with whom Osama bin
Laden made contact in 1996, before offering his riches
to the Taliban. The restored leader of the Eastern
Shura in Nangahar province, Haji Abdul Qadir (who
withdrew from the Bonn leadership conference), became
rich in former times as the Afghan source of a drug
pipeline involving in Pakistan Haji Ayub Afridi, "the
lord of Khyber heroin dealing" (Griffin, 142-43; cf.
Cockburn, Whiteout, 267).

Under the headline "US turns to drug baron to rally
support ," Asia Times Online reported on 12/4/01 that
"Afridi was freed from prison in Karachi last Thursday
[11/29/01] after serving just a few weeks of a
seven-year sentence for the export of 6.5 tons of
hashish."

In the 1980s, according to Asia Times Online, "All of
the major Afghan warlords, except for the Northern
Alliance's Ahmed Shah Masoud, who had his own opium
fiefdom in northern Afghanistan, were a part of
Afridi's coalition of drug traders in the
CIA-sponsored holy war against the Soviets. Sources
say that Afridi's constituencies in eastern and
southern Afghan provinces have been revived following
the withdrawal of the Taliban, and with them the drugs
trade. Commanders such as Haji Abdul Qadeer, Haji
Mohammed Zaman and Hazrat Ali are once again ruling
the roost in these areas. These commanders used to be
the biggest heroin and opium mafia in Afghanistan's
Pashtun belt."

(Hazrat Ali is currently directing the ground forces
attacking the Tora Bora cave stronghold in search of
Osama bin Laden. Meanwhile Haji Mohamed Zaman has
complained about the US bombing of villages under his
control. A local loya jirga convened under control of
Qadir's Eastern shura has requested that the bombing
cease.)

Asia Times Online speculates that the US, sensing too
much Russian influence being exerted on the Northern
Alliance, has decided to cultivate support from within
the majority Pashtun belt by reviving the old Afridi
drug network. But the independent behavior of Haji
Abdul Qadir and Haji Mohammed Zaman suggests that the
true restorer of the Afridi network may be elements in
Pakistan, legitimately concerned by the increasing
role played in post-Taliban Afghanistan by Rabbani,
the Northern Alliance, and Russia.

What we may be seeing is a revival of the Cold War
games in which both the US and Russia sought control
of the drug traffic, not just to fund their
operations, but above all in order to deny the
influence of the traffic to their opponent.

FLASH 5 (B): Developing US-Russian Tensions over
Post-Taliban Government

It has been clear that the Northern Alliance has
spurned US guidance and listened to its backers in
Russia, ever since the Northern Alliance seized
control of Kabul in defiance of Bush's public order,
and refused to accept a multinational peace-keeping
force. After hard bargaining at Bonn, the Northern
Alliance has come away with the most important
ministries in their control: defense, foreign affairs,
justice, and the interior. (See the London Guardian,
12/6/01.)

Eric Margolis argues in the Los Angeles Times on
11/28/01 that "The Russians have regained influence
over Afghanistan, avenged their defeat by the U.S. in
the 1980s war and neatly checkmated the Bush
administration, which, for all its high-tech military
power, understands little about Afghanistan.

"The U.S. ouster of the Taliban regime also means
Pakistan has lost its former influence over
Afghanistan and is now cut off from Central Asia's
resources. So long as the alliance holds power, the
U.S. is equally denied access to the much-coveted
Caspian Basin. Russia has regained control of the best
potential pipeline routes. The new Silk Road is
destined to become a Russian energy superhighway."

Margolis' pessimistic analysis ignores the extent to
which Russia has to fear, as well as hope for,
developments in Afghanistan. Its client states in the
CIS, above all Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, have
suffered from serious Islamist terrorist movements
funded by drugs. Other secession movements in
Chechnya, Georgia, and Abkhazia have been tied in with
struggles over the local drug traffic (Cooley, 161).

Control over oil and control over drugs cannot be
separated. Just as cold war hawks in Moscow would like
to see the oil flow north and the drugs south, so
there may still be cold war hawks in Washington who
would like to keep the drugs flowing north and bring
the oil south.

A hopeful sign is that some in Washington hope to turn
from the old Afghan warlords and their drug-financed
forces, to a new younger generation of leaders,
working towards a centrally financed and controlled
army. (See San Francisco Chronicle, 12/5/01.) An even
more hopeful development is that most of the old
warlords, notably Rabbani, Dostum, and Hekmatyar, have
been excluded from the new post-Taliban interim
government. This may be why the new government, though
it has 17 Northern Alliance members and only 11
Pushtuns, has still been welcomed by Pakistani
President Musharraf. (For a gloomier prediction, read
Tariq Ali, 11/30/01.)

More disturbing is the news of Ayub Afridi's release,
and related stories that old heroin labs are being
reopened along the Afghan-Pakistani frontier. The drug
warriors have not yet exited the scene.

As the head of the United Nations drug control program
in Afghanistan has warned (Voice of America, 12/3/01)
the country is danger of establishing a drug economy,
unless Afghan political leaders form a government that
can effectively control opium production. Farmers are
already re-planting opium poppy in some parts of
southern Afghanistan.

In a story I could find only in the Pakistan Frontier
Post, 12/06/01, US DEA Administrator Asa Hutchison has
announced, "I've directed our folks to go over to
Europe to start building the coalitions to move in an
anti-narcotics team after the counter terrorism
operation is concluded in Afghanistan," noting that
some U.S. officials including Steven Casteel were
heading to Britain on Wednesday for talks.

May they have more success than the hapless DEA agents
in Pakistan in the 1980s, one of whom later told the
Washington Post that CIA officers told them to pull
back their operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan for
the duration of the war (Cockburn, Whiteout, 265).



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