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http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=26473

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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
Who will run Iraq after Saddam?
U.S. unlikely to attack until suitable replacement identified

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Posted: February 14, 2002
5:00 p.m. Eastern


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© 2002 WorldNetDaily.com

Despite the Bush administration's increasingly belligerent tone regarding
Iraq, military strikes against the regime in Baghdad remain distant.

The United States needs to plan a military campaign and subdue international
opposition to such a move. Meanwhile, the largest question remains unsolved:
Who could run Iraq after Saddam Hussein?

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is scheduled to visit the Middle East in
March in what is seen as a prelude to potential U.S. military action against
Saddam Hussein's regime.

President George W. Bush recently explained Cheney's visit – which will
include stops in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and Kuwait, all of which border
Iraq – by saying, "There's nothing like looking somebody in the eye and
letting them know that when we say we're going to fight terror, we mean it,"
according to the Guardian.

Despite the fiery rhetoric of the president's State of the Union address,
there does not yet seem to be a clear consensus on how the United States
should act against Iraq. Options range from a CIA-sponsored coup to a
conventional military campaign similar to Desert Storm.

But as complicated as this question is, a tougher question remains: Who will
run Iraq after Saddam Hussein? The United States is unlikely to attack Iraq
until it believes it has identified a suitable replacement regime.

More than anything else, finding such a regime is the biggest hurdle keeping
Washington from launching strikes.

It should be noted that removing Saddam from power would entail a shift in
regimes, not simply a transfer of power. Arresting Saddam for war crimes –
assuming he left the country – or assassinating him would not bring about
much change, since Saddam has spent more than five years grooming his son
Qusay as his successor.

Although Qusay, 35, keeps a lower profile than his reputedly psychotic elder
brother Uday, he is no less ruthless. Qusay has almost total operational
control over Iraq's armed forces, including the elite Republican Guard and
the special security agency in charge of protecting the president.

Since 1995, Qusay has led efforts to conceal Iraq's programs for developing
missiles and weapons of mass destruction, according to the U.S. State
Department. Last summer, he took on his first official role when he was
elected to the Baath party's highest authority, its 18-member regional
command.





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