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http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2002/10/17102002160503.asp

Indonesia: Conspiracy Theorists Blame U.S. Agents For Bali Blasts

By Ron Synovitz

The bomb blasts that killed more than 180 people in Bali have focused
international attention on links between Indonesia's radical Islamist groups
and the Al-Qaeda terrorist network. But among Indonesians, a conspiracy
theory has been gaining popular currency -- one that puts the blame on the
United States. RFE/RL examines why some Indonesians are alleging that U.S.
agents may have carried out the Bali attack.

Prague, 17 October 2002 (RFE/RL) -- Before the bomb blasts that killed more
than 180 people on the island of Bali last weekend, authorities in Jakarta
were reluctant to admit possible links between Islamic groups in Indonesia
and the Al-Qaeda terrorist network.

After the Bali attack, Indonesian Defense Minister Matori Abdul Djalil took
the unprecedented step of announcing that there are, indeed, active Al-Qaeda
cells in his country: "I am not afraid to say, though many have refused to
say, that an Al-Qaeda network really exists in Indonesia."

But other Indonesian officials, like parliamentary speaker Amien Rais and
Vice President Hamzah Haz, say it is still too early to blame the blast on
either Al-Qaeda or any radical Indonesian group.

Haz has been telling Indonesians he thinks outside powers were involved. And
his deputies have suggested publicly that U.S. intelligence agents had both
the ability and the motive to carry out such an attack.

Those remarks reflect a conspiratorial theory that seems preposterous to
most Westerners but is gaining widespread currency among Indonesians -- the
allegation that U.S. agents may have been responsible for last weekend's
Bali bombings.

Sidney Jones, the Jakarta-based director of the International Crisis Group's
Indonesia project, has written for "The New York Times" about the reaction
of ordinary Indonesians to the Bali blast. In an interview with RFE/RL, she
describes the anti-American sentiments many Indonesians share: "The theory
that is widely current in Indonesia today is that the United States was
behind the Bali bombing, that its motive in mounting the attack was to gain
the sympathy of countries that had, hitherto, been reluctant to join in the
war on terrorism and therefore support the American plan to bomb Iraq.
[According to this theory, Washington] would use the blast in Bali as a way
to infiltrate intelligence officers into Indonesia under the guise of
helping with the investigation, and those individuals would be the beachhead
for a larger presence of U.S. troops."

Jones says those alleging U.S. responsibility for the Bali bombings are not
restricted to Indonesia's radical Islamic fringe. She says most expressing
the view are associated with mainstream Muslim parties on the center-right
of the political spectrum.

Suggestions of U.S. involvement also have appeared in the commentaries of
major Indonesian newspapers and the idea has been debated on television and
radio talk shows.

Jones says the popularity of the view reflects deep-seated resentment
against the United States: "The U.S. is seen as having put extreme pressure
on the Indonesian government to go after Muslim targets. And that has been
resented not just by the extremist Muslim groups in Indonesia, but also by
people who have a very strong sense of nationalism and national identity --
and don't want to see Indonesia pushed around by the United States."

In particular, Jones says the policies of the Bush administration since the
attacks of 11 September have angered ordinary citizens of Indonesia -- the
country with the world's largest Muslim population: "There has been very,
very deep concern over U.S. policy in the Middle East. That has manifested
itself repeatedly in articles across the Muslim media [sector]. What the
United States has done in Afghanistan and the southern Philippines with the
troop presence there, with the proposed war on Iraq and certainly, above
all, in the Middle East, is seen as turning the war against terror into a
war against Islam."

But Jones notes that strong anti-American sentiment in Indonesia dates back
to before the country's economic crisis of 1997: "This idea that the United
States is out to hurt Indonesia has been around for a while. The loss of
East Timor [as a part of Indonesia] is another issue that is often
attributed to international pressure led by the United States and Australia.
And it goes back even further than that. But it fits into a thought pattern
that we have seen over and over during the last five or six years. And that
feeling increased following the economic crisis in Indonesia in 1997, which
again, some people blamed on U.S. intervention and U.S. pressure."

Jones says many Indonesians are angered by those who continue to blame the
country's problems on outside forces: "There are many people in Indonesia
who are appalled by the fact that this view [of a U.S. conspiracy in the
Bali bombings] has gained such currency -- people within Megawati's party
and within some of the opposition parties. In fact, Megawati's leading
political rivals have all denounced this notion as being completely
counterproductive. Many of these people include academics, members of the
educated elite, and so on. But some members of the educated elite, in fact,
subscribe to this view [of a U.S. conspiracy]."

Political analysts agree that the Bali blasts have put Indonesian President
Megawati Sukarnoputri in a difficult position. Now more than ever, Megawati
must balance her need for U.S. support against popular Muslim sentiments at
home.

David Claridge, the managing director of the London-based firm Janusian
Security Risk Management, discussed Megawati's difficult position today at
an antiterrorism conference in Singapore: "Her predicament is fairly clear.
She is relying to some extent on Muslim groups who feel themselves to be
within a broad spectrum that is unsympathetic to the U.S. position on Iraq,
unsympathetic to the U.S. position on Israel, unsympathetic to the U.S.
position in terms of a war on terrorism. So she has to balance up pressure
that comes to her from the U.S. and from the broader international community
to tackle these groups while maintaining her popular support at home. That's
a very difficult position to be in. At this moment in time, there seems
little choice but to aggressively pursue these groups because to fail to do
so would lead to further attacks of the sort that we saw in Bali on 12
October."

Meanwhile, there is a growing controversy in Washington, London, and
Canberra over whether more could have been done to prevent the Bali
attack -- or at least give travelers more of a warning about the threat of
terrorist attacks against resorts like Bali.

In their defense, U.S. intelligence officials note that the CIA issued a
warning to the Indonesian and Australian governments in September about a
potential terrorist threat to Bali and other tourist resorts in Southeast
Asia.

But the U.S. State Department took no special precautionary measures beyond
issuing a general caution against travel to Indonesia. And neither the
Indonesian nor Australian authorities passed the CIA's specific warning
about Bali on to tourists.

That has angered many of the Western tourists who survived the bomb blasts.
Among them is Australian tourist Robyn Quick, who returned to her homeland
yesterday from Bali. "The American government knew. The Indonesian
government knew. And our [Australian] government knew. And they did not tell
us."

Australian Prime Minister John Howard said today that he has ordered a
review of all material received by Australia's intelligence services about
terrorist threats in Indonesia before the attack on Bali.

Howard has admitted that Australia received recent U.S. intelligence
identifying Bali as a possible target, but did not change its advice to
Australian tourists: "Look. I have indicated they have made a bona fide
assessment according to their judgment, according to the intelligence
information available. If you look at the various travel advisories, the
Australian one did talk about bombs having gone off and warned of the
possibility in the future and did associate that with areas frequented by
tourists. It is always possible after a terrible event to say that maybe we
could have done this and could have done that. But these assessments are
done in good faith and in the absence of anything that could be construed as
a specific warning about the bombing that did occur."

Western leaders have voiced suspicions that the attack was planned by
Al-Qaeda -- possibly together with an Islamic group that is active in the
region called Jemaah Islamiyah.

Indonesia's coordinating minister for political and security affairs has
named the elderly Indonesian cleric Abu Bakar Bashir as one of the leaders
of Jemaah Islamiyah. The minister, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, says legal
action would be taken against Bashir if the investigation shows that he or
his followers were involved. Bashir has denied involvement in the attacks.

Indonesian authorities say they have detained at least seven Indonesians and
one foreign national, reportedly from the Middle East, for questioning.


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