-Caveat Lector- >From http://www.dawn.com/2002/10/18/int11.htm
18 October 2002 Friday 11 Shaban 1423 Tehran feels the heat if Baghdad falls: Divided leadership's dilemma By Alistair Lyon TEHRAN: Behind Iran's policy of "active neutrality" in a looming US-Iraqi conflict lies alarm about the upheaval that war between two of its bitterest foes may cause. The policy treads cautiously between bolder voices at each end of the Islamic republic's political spectrum, analysts say. Viscerally anti-American conservatives say Iran should fight any US attack on its Muslim neighbour. Radical reformers advocate unabashed cooperation with the United States to get rid of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and reap post-war rewards. Iran's divided leadership hopes to neutralize the dangers posed by a US-led assault on Iraq without sacrificing the possible benefits of "regime change" next door - and without becoming a new target in America's "war on terror". Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who as president kept Iran neutral in the 1990-91 Gulf conflict, compares a US strike on Iraq to having "a python tackle a scorpion". Officially, Tehran opposes any war, certainly any unilateral US action, while advising Iraq to avert regional chaos by obeying UN resolutions on disarmament. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said an invasion would stir more hatred of America in a Muslim world already angered by US support for Israel. "We should let the Iraqi people determine their own destiny," he said, adding many Muslim, European and other nations opposed unilateral US action. Asefi questioned whether Washington's true concern was really Iraq's alleged quest for weapons of mass destruction. "Is this new information? Or did they know it 20 years ago when they equipped Iraq to attack Iran?" he said, referring to US support for Baghdad in its 1980-88 war with Iran. In the event of a US-led war with Iraq, Iran would look to its own security and national interests, Asefi said. It would try to avoid any territorial disintegration of its ethnically and religiously diverse neighbour and head off any flood of refugees across its border. He did not say if Iran would allow Iraqi Shia opposition forces that it hosts to join any attack on Baghdad. But a diplomat said it could be assumed that the Badr Corps of several thousand fighters loyal to the Supreme Council of the Islamic Republic in Iraq would be unleashed. POTENTIAL GAINS: Among Iran's potential gains from an Iraqi defeat, diplomats and analysts list the removal of arch-enemy Saddam and any banned weapons programmes he may have, as well as the elimination of several thousand Iranian opposition Mujahideen Khalq fighters based in Iraq. However, a US victory would fuel Iranian fears of encirclement already excited by US activity in Afghanistan to the east, new Pentagon bases in the Central Asian republics and the longstanding US presence in Gulf Arab countries. Despite Iranian cooperation in the US campaign against Osama bin Laden and his Taliban protectors in Afghanistan, President George W. Bush in January labelled Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, part of an "axis of evil" that supports terrorism and seeks weapons of mass destruction. Asefi, citing world opinion and Iran's domestic situation, said the government had no fear that Bush might try to overthrow Tehran's clerical rulers after dealing with Saddam. The Iranian analyst said such a scenario seemed less plausible now than a few months ago because the Bush administration was too busy with Iraq, Afghanistan and terrorism to contemplate any Iran adventure. More acute headaches for Iranian policy-makers concern the unpredictable aftermath of a US invasion of Iraq. If the invasion was a swift, smooth success, leading to a stable government in Baghdad, Iran would suddenly face a potent rival for Western investment in its energy sector. Its holy city of Qom would lose its temporary primacy as a seat of Shia learning when top Iranian and exiled Iraqi clerics returned to Iraq's shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala. And any democratic flowering in Iraq would spur demands for faster reform of Iran's creaking system of clerical rule. If on the other hand, a US attack went awry, Iran might find itself facing waves of refugees - and perhaps even a last-ditch salvo of poison gas missiles fired by a doomed Iraqi ruler bent on vengeance against his non- Arab foes. Should Iraq descend into civil war endangering majority Shias, any appeal for help would present mainly Shia Iran with a dilemma. It would have to weigh the domestic cost of ignoring their plight against the external risk of an intervention that would horrify US regional allies such as Saudi Arabia. Nightmare scenarios aside, Iran could play a constructive role in a post-war Iraq, as it did in promoting a broad-based government in Afghanistan after the defeat of the Taliban. Analysts say Iran's regional weight, along with its influence over Iraqi Shias, and to a more limited extent Iraqi Kurds, could help stabilize Iraq after Saddam's removal. But some say such a policy, despite its attractions for Iran's national interest, could be hamstrung by domestic rivalries between factions.-Reuters ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ A<>E<>R + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Forwarded as information only; I don't believe everything I read or send (but that doesn't stop me from considering it; obviously SOMEBODY thinks it's important) + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + "Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. 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