-Caveat Lector-

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=350298

09 November 2002 08:06 BDT
Home  > News  > World  > Politics

Robert Fisk: George Bush crosses Rubicon - but what lies beyond?

09 November 2002 Internal links Day the world turned on Iraq  The face of power, the 
raw,
real power of Bush's America  Waverer voted yes 'to stop use of force and US right to 
go to
war'  Blair gives Saddam a final ultimatum  Baghdad isolated by decision  The key 
points of
UN Resolution 1441 Diplomacy and dollars secure rare unanimity at the UN  Bali bombers
'aimed to kill Americans'  Al-Qa'ida preparing for attack, says Interpol  Robert Fisk: 
George
Bush crosses Rubicon - but what lies beyond?  Fergal Keane: It could all go quickly 
wrong
for Mr Bush
When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon river, he wrote, in his Gallic Wars: "Alea 
iacta est
[The die is cast]."

Just after 5pm yesterday, when the United Nations Security Council voted 15-0 to disarm
Iraq, the US President George Bush crossed the Rubicon. "The world must insist that
judgement must be enforced," he told us.

The Rubicon is a wide river. It was deep for Caesar's legions. The Tigris river will 
be more
shallow – my guess is that the first American tanks will be across it within one week 
of war
– but what lies beyond?

For Rome, civil war followed. And, be assured, civil war will follow any American 
invasion
of Iraq. "Cheat and retreat will no longer be tolerated," Mr Bush told us yesterday –
forgetting, of course, UN Security Council resolutions 242 and 338 which call for 
Israel to
withdraw from the Arab territories occupied during the 1967 Arab- Israeli war.

And after eight weeks of debate in the Security Council, no one mentioned the crimes
against humanity of 11 September 2001, because – of course – Iraq had absolutely 
nothing
to do with 11 September. If the United States invades Iraq, we should remember that.

And what do we get from Mr Bush? Absolutely no gesture towards the Arab world. The joy
of the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, can be imagined. "Should we have to use
troops," Mr Bush tells us, "the US, with friends, will move swiftly – with force – to 
do the
job." In other words, he will invade Iraq, the "friends", presumably, being British. 
The
United Nations can debate any Iraqi non-compliance with weapons inspectors, but the
United States will decide whether Iraq has breached UN resolutions. In other words,
America can declare war without UN permission.

So how many of the American tanks entering Baghdad will be flying UN pennants? None, I
suspect.

The BBC, with CNN and all the other television networks, was last night billing 
Resolution
1441 as "the last chance" for Saddam Hussein. In fact, it is the "last chance" for the 
United
Nations. As the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, said, the road ahead will be 
"difficult and
dangerous". He can say that again.

It's easy to see the traps. America's UN ambassador, John Negroponte, insisted that the
Security Council resolution "contains no hidden triggers". But of course it does. It 
allows the
United States to decide if Iraq has opposed the resolution. It allows the Security 
Council to
discuss non- compliance without restraining the United States from attacking Baghdad.

"One way or another," Mr Negroponte said, "Iraq will be disarmed". It's the "another" 
way
that the UN should be worried about. Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Britain's nightmare
headmaster at the UN, performed appropriately. "Crystal clear", "unequivocal choice",
"serious consequences", "ambiguous modalities". You could almost feel the cane. No
mention, of course, of the CIA's manipulation of the last team of UN weapons 
inspectors in
Iraq.

Iraqis want peace and an end to sanctions – let's forget President Saddam for a moment 
–
and President Bush seems to want war. So Mr Bush must be praying that the Iraqi
President does something to obstruct the UN arms inspectors. In which case – I quote Mr
Bush – "we will act in the interest of the world". Thanks George. And thanks Saddam if 
this
feckless, vicious dictator chooses to defy the UN.

Washington wants a UN fig leaf for a war on Iraq and is willing to go through an 
inspection
process in the hope that Iraq obstructs it. Mr Annan was talking yesterday about the
"unique legitimacy of the UN". But the cruel dictator of Baghdad cares as much about 
that
as President Bush.

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