On Mon, Mar 17, 2003 at 08:59:31PM -0800, Tim May wrote: > About the threat to Washington: I think it's relatively high. A nerve > gas attack on buildings or the Metro seems likely. (The Japanese AUM > cult had Sarin, but was inept. A more capable, military-trained > operative has had many months to get into D.C. and wait for the obvious > time to attack. And he need not even be a suicide bomber. A cannister > of VX with a reliable timer is child's play. >
One big difference, it seems to me, is that the U.S. government was recently up against Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups that did not have the complete resources of a nation-state at their disposal (plus other factors, like sufficient uninterrupted time to prepare a second attack on U.S. soil after we began to target them post-911). Now we're up against a possibly enfeebled nation, but a nation nonetheless, with a leader who knows that his days are numbered so there's arguably little downside to plotting terrorism. Plus other Middle East nations that now might be inclined to lend covert aid if it's entirely deniable. I live in Adams Morgan in Washington, DC, which Mapquest tells me is three miles north of the White House (because of one way streets) -- the oh-so-brave denizens of 1600 have closed Pennyslvania Ave. It's probably 1.5 miles directly. It's hardly implausible to believe I might survive a 1 kiloton nuclear blast, about what the "Davy Crockett" U.S. nuke, at around 50 lbs, provided. It makes sense to think that Soviet suitcase nukes have a similar yield. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings were closer to 12-23 kilotons, according to one source (http://www.danford.net/hiroshim.htm), and there supposedly was a 50 percent survival rate at 1/8 of a mile from ground zero -- while the bomb went off above ground as opposed to on the ground. I might gain an extra half-mile or so because it's more likely a terrorist would attack the White House from the east, west, or south as opposed to the north -- Pennsylvania Avenue is closed, and traffic on H St. (further north) will be stopped or severely scrutinized during any heightened alert status. By way of comparison, the Tractor That Disrupted DC is about eight blocks southwest of the White House. If it were any closer, the Disgruntled Veteran Farmer would have been dispatched with extreme prejudice by Secret Service snipers. If the Capitol building is attacked, I live much further from that, so I'm not as worried by the immediate impact of the blast, just the aftermath. That leaves just biological and chemical weapons, conventional explosives, and dirty bombs. > If I were Declan, I'd get out of Dodge. Well, I don't think I'll be living here the rest of my life -- DC is too tempting a target over the long term, as the U.S. empire spreads and its enemies grow accordingly. For the short term, DC is still an easier target than NYC if you're bringing a bomb in by truck (NYC would be easier by boat). NYC has bridges along which radiation sensors can be placed; DC, as Tim knows, is geographically just a part of Maryland connected by hundreds of residential streets. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the next attack take place in a far more distributed manner. Imagine a dozen Iraqi/Al Qaeda sympathizers or agents making dirty bombs (or even conventional explosives) and leaving them in gift-wrapped boxes in shopping bags at American surburban shopping malls. They detonate simultaneously after 15 minutes or if they're moved or disturbed. The perp would have time to escape and could take steps to mask himself from the inevitable surveillance camera footage that would be broadcast by the FBI. A week or two after that happens, you can imagine the AQ/Iraq axis trying the same thing in the parking lot of a metroplex theater at night (it's easy enough to leave a backpack under a parked car), in the bathroom of a dozen crowded restaurants, and so on. The U.S. would soon become accustomed to living in the same state of seige and constant surveillance that Israel enjoys. And watch what Congress will do to preserve our freedoms by giving more power to the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security. Imagine that approach being escalated by radio-controlled or autonomous model helicopters or airplanes being sent from outside the Beltway to blast into the White House or the House and Senate office buildings. They'd be guided by GPS and carry only a modest payload, so might not accomplish much unless their targets are outside. No more Rose Garden press conferences after the first wave of the attack occurs, I'd wager. Yes, DC is not a good long-term place to live. It's too tempting a target. -Declan
