Thanks for the clarifications. Peter
On Wed, Nov 2, 2016 at 10:46 PM, Chris Hutten-Czapski <chut...@mozilla.com> wrote: > Over the past two months there has been no absolute decline in number of > Windows XP installs. (Source: Tableau data, which is sadly not public so I > cannot link because it reveals more data from our users than we feel > comfortable sharing) > > Over the past two months there has been an absolute increase in the number > of Windows 7 and Windows 10 installs. (Tableau) > > Thus, as a percentage it is decreasing. As a number of users, it isn't. > > It is important to be clear and precise, and I apologize that my blogpost > failed in those respects. > > So, to recap: there are costs to supporting Windows XP and Windows Vista. > The userbase is shrinking as a percentage of the overall Firefox userbase. > There is a plan that will ensure support to April of 2018, two years after > Chrome dropped support and a full decade after SP3 was released. > > In my opinion, this is an excellent and generous plan. I expect the > Windows XP userbase to continue to shrink as a proportion of Firefox users, > and to restart shrinking as an absolute value in the near term. > > Once again I am sorry for any confusion I may have caused. > > :chutten > > > On Tue, Nov 1, 2016 at 11:08 PM, Peter Dolanjski <pdolanj...@mozilla.com> > wrote: > >> Chutten is not as categoric as you are: >>> >>> It is also possible that we’ve seen some ex-Chrome users fleeing >>> Google’s drop of support from earlier this year. >>> >> This is possible, but I'd still expect to see the biggest impact when >> Chrome started including the scary persistent notification that the user >> will no longer get updates. >> >> >>> Deseasonalized numbers for just WinXP users are hard to come by, so >>> this is fairly speculative. One thing that’s for certain is that the >>> diminishing Windows XP userbase trend I had previously observed (and >>> was counting on seeing continue) is no longer in evidence. >> >> >> Chutten, if you have some other stats on this, I'd love to take a look. >> The longitudinal data still shows the following trend: >> >> *Changes to **Daily Active User proportion of WinXP to total Windows >> population from previous month:* >> Week of Jan. 20th, 2016: -4.3% >> Week of Feb. 20th, 2016: -2.5% >> Week of Mar. 20th, 2016: -2.6% >> Week of Apr. 20th, 2016: -3.2% >> Week of May 20th, 2016: -1.3% >> Week of June 20th, 2016: -3.3% >> Week of July 20th, 2016: -2.3% >> Week of Aug. 20th, 2016: -4.9% >> Week of Sept. 20th, 2016: -1.1% >> Week of Oct. 20th, 2016: -1.2% >> >> Sure, there were larger drops in the summer that seemed to have eased off >> in Sept./Oct. but it's too early to tell if that's just some weirdness from >> seasonality. >> >> Peter >> >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, Nov 1, 2016 at 9:56 PM, Mike Hommey <m...@glandium.org> wrote: >> >>> On Wed, Nov 02, 2016 at 09:28:40AM +0800, Peter Dolanjski wrote: >>> > On 10/31/2016 3:54 PM, juar...@gmail.com wrote: >>> > >>> > > >>> > > Discontinuing support for 10% of users sounds like shrinking 10% of >>> > > customers, lay off 10% of employees, reduce 10% of funds for >>> > > investments. >>> > >>> > >>> > I can tell you that the evidence we have does not support the notion >>> > that end of life (or the approach we are proposing) will actually >>> > result in the attrition of those users. We examined the impact of >>> > Chrome's end of life on Windows XP users. The majority of users >>> > planned to stick with Chrome even without security updates. We also >>> > saw almost zero evidence of Chrome's end of life causing an uptick in >>> > Firefox usage or downloads among XP users. >>> >>> Chutten is not as categoric as you are: >>> >>> It is also possible that we’ve seen some ex-Chrome users fleeing >>> Google’s drop of support from earlier this year. >>> >>> Deseasonalized numbers for just WinXP users are hard to come by, so >>> this is fairly speculative. One thing that’s for certain is that the >>> diminishing Windows XP userbase trend I had previously observed (and >>> was counting on seeing continue) is no longer in evidence. >>> >>> https://chuttenblog.wordpress.com/2016/10/28/firefox-windows >>> -xp-exit-plan/ >>> >>> Mike >>> >> >> > _______________________________________________ dev-platform mailing list dev-platform@lists.mozilla.org https://lists.mozilla.org/listinfo/dev-platform
