Some of the supposed benefits of JT65a are real, but some are illusory.

I noticed that I could plainly heard tones and quite easily see them on 
the waterfall at about the same level of visibility as a nearby Olivia 
QSO, yet WSJT was reporting -20dB or son S/N.

Reading the paper [1], I found that the S/N number reported isn't what 
we thought it was.  The -24dB claim in the paper for copying arbitrary 
messages is relative to the 2.5KHz bandwidth of an SSB phone signal, so 
if we consider noise on a 50Hz window such as for PSK31, that would be 
17dB less noise, so an S/N of -7.  In its own bandwidth of 177.6Hz, that 
corresponds to an S./N of -12.5dB.  That isn't bad, but it certainly 
isn't -24dB below the noise, and fits well with the claim that JT65a 
outperforms human CW by 10dB.

OOO, RO, and 73 are QSL acknowledgements of the initial reports.  They 
aren't sent in the MFSK modulation scheme...they are alternated tones.   
They claim to have a -32dB S/N requirement, but readjusting again we get 
-20.5dB for recognition of 3 of the required exchange parts of a QSO.   
So about 10 log(2500/177.6)=11.5dB of this S/N is illusory.

The callsign and grid square exchanges are sent in the normal modulation 
scheme, which claims -12.5dB S/N in its own bandwidth, but if you 
"assist" the decoder with a list of callsigns and grid squares to choose 
from, the claimed coding gain is 4dB.  I suppose it isn't much different 
from being able to copy that DX op's callsign that he never seems to 
send after a quick check of the spot database, but I believe this 4dB, 
while it may be nice for the EME folks, is an illusion, as those using 
"deep search" on HF have seen, generating phantom contacts.  (Illusory 
may be too kind a word for this particular feature...)

They do claim a 5dB gain using "averaging", though, and this seems 
real.  I believe this uses the proprietary soft RS decoder and multiple 
minutes of transmission, so this gain does seem reasonable.

A final source of "gain" is the placebo ionospheric heating effect often 
seen on 15m and 10m during contests, and on 20m any time PSK31 signals 
are booming in but the rest of the band is dead.  The ability of this 
software to search in a 600Hz window and the willingness of operators to 
devote time to TX and RX testing on specific frequencies is probably one 
of its biggest advantages over other modes for HF weak signal work.

My conclusion is that this mode is about 10-15 dB worse than it appears 
to be, and we should start doing more careful tests alongside Olivia and 
plain old MFSK as controls in side-by-side propagation conditions.

[1] http://physics.princeton.edu/pulsar/K1JT/K1JT_eme2006.pdf

73,
Leigh/WA5ZNU

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