hi,

Sun really seems to be stepping up their plugging of OOo in the media. Here
is another OOo mention by a top Sun exec. Sun's open source strategy really
seems to be coming into focus. Over and over again, Sun's execs are talking
about open source increasing the pie by bringing more and more people on
line. Sun's biggest revenue years came during the dot-com bubble, and I
believe that Sun senior management really believes that Sun's well-being is
tied to the well-being of a free and open Internet. At the risk of repeating
myself, Gary Edwards said recently that Sun has contributed to defending
open standards at meetings where Google was missing in action. Sun sells the
hardware and the software that helps companies take advantage of viewing the
open network as the computer. Many people have criticized Sun as not
"getting" open source, with its "not-really-open" open source licenses, and
with Jonathan Schwartz criticizing the GPL. But look at the fact that OOo
2.0 is going to the LGPL. I think that Sun senior management sees that the
second wave of the Internet is coming, and it is tied to open source and
open standards. I think that Sun sees that there is a huge business case to
be made for it riding that wave, as it did the first wave. Here is Jonathan
talking about OOo:

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-5879292.html?tag=zdfd.newsfeed

Coincidentally, Gary Edwards has told me recently how X-forms in OOo 2.0 is
going to really bring OOo 2.0 / SO 8 into parity with Word and even pass it
in many regards. On way is by allowing end users to participate in web
services, which is exactly what Jonathan says in that article. Again, Sun
execs are refining that "network is the computer" message. And here is an
article that talks about the relative troubles that Microsoft is having with
the Internet:

http://slashdot.org/articles/05/09/23/1536238.shtml?tid=109&tid=187&tid=95

The interesting thing about that article is that it quotes Clayton
Christensen's "disruptive innovation" theory as it applies to Microsoft. Our
film, the Digital Tipping Point, is going to make the case that Microsoft's
struggle with the disruptive power of the Internet is just starting. Sun was
disrupted by Linux, but IMHO Sun saw what was happening to it early, and is
recovering by integrating commodity computing successfully into its business
model. Microsoft is mistakenly digging into integrated solutions, and is
going to be hurting as a result. I've said it before, and I'll say it again:
I think that we could see Sun and Microsoft switch places as far as market
capitalization. Here's that quote from the article by Cnet reporters Jim
Kerstetter<[EMAIL 
PROTECTED]:Microsoft%27s%20nightmare%20inches%20closer%20to%20reality>and
Elinor
Mills<[EMAIL 
PROTECTED]:Microsoft%27s%20nightmare%20inches%20closer%20to%20reality>that
got Slashdotted:

http://beta.news.com.com/Microsofts+nightmare+inches+closer+to+reality/2100-1012_3-5877197.html

"Microsoft, it seems, is faced with a classic "innovator's dilemma," as
author Clayton 
Christensen<http://dw.com.com/redir?destUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.claytonchristensen.com%2Fpublications.html&siteId=3&oId=2100-1012_3-5877197&ontId=7343&lop=nl.ex>put
it in his groundbreaking book that defined why tech giants usually
miss
the next wave of innovation. Microsoft execs made what looked like the right
decisions at the time. As a result, the cash came in. The core product,
Windows, became bigger and more complicated, and getting updated versions
became harder to get out the door.
*"Plotting the counter-offensive*
"The burden of that success, as the theory in the book goes, makes it harder
to respond to the next generation of tech innovators. Years ago, Microsoft
and Apple rattled IBM. Now Google, some believe, has a chance to rattle
Microsoft by providing a cheaper, easier-to-use alternative. "Every other
time Microsoft was attacking from below," said one former executive. 'Now
(Microsoft) is being attacked from below and they don't know how to deal
with it.'"

The article also says that Microsoft is trying to follow Google down the
road of becoming a media company, but Christensen writes that there is a
first mover advantage when it comes to using disruptive technologies.
Companies deploying disruptive technologies get the processes and
distribution channels that they need to succeed, and then it becomes hard to
catch up with them. Sun and Google are getting familiar with the open source
world, but Microsoft is just looking in from the outside with the same
mystified looks on their faces that the RCA folks had in regarding
transistors. Upstart Sony mastered transistors, and RCA never caught up. RCA
is a shell of their former selves as a result.

Here's an interesting thought. Of the 6 billion people on earth, only 1
billion live in countries with average incomes of $10,000.00 USD and up. The
remaining 5 billion people live below that line, and of those 5 billion,
half live in countries with average incomes of $4,000.00 USD. Microsoft is
experiencing piracy in those countries, but Sun is already doing business in
many of those countries, among them China. We all know that Sun is planning
to be involved with the development of 200 million desktops in China, as per
Scott McNealy's 2003 Comdex announcement.

I don't want this list to just be Sun echo chamber, especially since they
are basically hosting it through Collabnet, so I'd love to here where I am
off-base. By the way, as you all know, I am an attorney, and I don't work
for Sun.

Christian Einfeldt
415-351-1300

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