On Thu, 2006-02-23 at 10:03 +0000, Daniel Carrera wrote:
> Ian Lynch wrote:
> > As it is if the electricity goes off and most people don't worry too
> > much about that.
> 
> Electricity is more reliable than internet connections. When internet 
> connections become as reliable as electricity is today, a lot more 
> people will be interested in web-based office.

But electricity was not always as reliable as it is to-day and people
were still reliant on it. Chicken and egg, when there is a demand for a
higher level of reliability it will happen.

> > > 50% of people are employed in
> > SMEs not large companies so there is a huge market to be tapped in small
> > companies to start with and then move up the pyramid.
> 
> You have an SME. Would you trust your entire company's documents on the 
> hope that Evil Edna won't go down again? When you can get OOo for free 
> without that risk?

Yes, if Google offered me web based services that could do all the
things the business needed at $50 a terminal I'd definitely consider
moving over. I might be a bit more careful to have a more robust caching
server and might well rent two independent broad band connections. That
would still be a big saving on costs - and we are an established IT
company. Most small businesses are crippled for hours if *anything* goes
wrong because despite paying support contracts the supporters don't
arrive immediately. New start ups don't have the same constraints. Those
are the initial markets and its a big niche that is scalable to larger
things. Chances are workers in these businesses will also take a
domestic service at home.

> Perhaps a better market for Google Office would be schools (not for the 
> staff, for the kids). They have more reliable internet, and if the kids 
> can't get their homework one day, it's not the end of the world.

Except that schools are much more dependent on media based things. Its a
common mistake to think of schools as a less demanding market. In many
ways they are more demanding and more complex. However, I think there
would be potential take up there too.

> You need to look for customers who won't mind not being able to access 
> their files for one day.

Why if you provide them with a backup connection? Its about £25 a month
for our 2 meg ADSL connection so doubling that cost is not prohibitive. 

>  The only example I can think of is a school 
> network for the kids. Even a student (e.g. my brother) wouldn't go for a 
> web-based office because it could mean that his homework is late. But at 
> a school, if it goes down, it goes down for everyone, so the teacher 
> would extend the due date.

You can't guarantee kids have a computer or Internet connection at home.
Most do, but even if one or two don't you can't insist on them doing
homework that requires a computer - against the law on Equal Opps
grounds here. If the school says the kid has to have something they then
have to provide it. In fact a very low cost connection would make it
possible to ensure all kids did have the tools at home. 

For it to be worthwhile doing it, Google doesn't have to have the whole
market immediately they just need a significant niche immediately and
then to be able to develop it upwards. In any case there are ways of
caching stuff on a local machine if there was a connection problem.
Saving some basic files to a RAM disc is no big deal and with RAM prices
continuing to fall, having a local workspace with say OOo embeded into
the machine in ROM with the OS is not impossible either, ok it wouldn't
be web based office but really the concept is more about low cost low
maintenance terminals provided as part of a service. Exactly how the
technology is distributed between the terminal and the server isn't that
important as long as it can be made to work.
-- 
Ian Lynch
www.theINGOTs.org
www.opendocumentfellowship.org
www.schoolforge.org.uk


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