The new book..you find.. http://www.hkc22.com/KeyTechnologies.html
The year 2005 will bring a series of new challenges for the Chinese government, and for investors in China.. Just some of the challenges China now faces are: Excess liquidity (cash) in the market Weak corporate governance Internal reform of the Chinese Communist Party Continued weakness in Chinese SOEs (state-owned enterprises) For non-Chinese investors interested in investing in China, the greatest single danger is an excess of experts who claim to have insights into the China market, even though they do not speak the language, do not have local connections, and don't understand the business ecosystem in China. The best solution is a culture mixed consulting company. In 2004, the official amount of foreign direct investments (FDI) will be more than US$60 billion. The unofficial number is even larger. The trouble is that there are not enough good investments to go around. In order to meet demand, many investments which are not good are dressed up as prime investments. Expect this trend to continue in 2005. This deal underscores a very interesting trend: Non-Chinese firms want to go into the Chinese market to capture market share, while Chinese leading companies, with the support of the Chinese government, want to expand beyond China's boundaries. Hi-tech firms, have been traditionally weak at international marketing, and the soft skills needed to succeed internationally. Most of their customers are businesses. In 2005, we should see deals which are more oriented to consumer marketing. This will be more interesting than the current range of deals, and it will take time to see results. The whole business ecosystem has changed, and the hi-tech companies are still struggling to adjust a new world where the advantage lies with the customer. On the monetary side, the greatest single challenge for the Chinese government is how to soak up the excess liquidity slushing around in the Chinese economy. Failure to soak it up will rapidly lead to multiple bubbles in the economy. There is already excess investment in hard assets (factory production) and certain parts of real estate, especially residential properties in the tier one cities. Much of the smarter real estate money has already gone into the tier two and tier three cities, which are experiencing real growth. In 2004, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has done an excellent job of preventing excesses from building up in the economy. The Chinese have learned very well that the bubble which built up in Japan in the late eighties can do tremendous damage to the economy, and will not allow a repetition of that scenario in China. For non-Chinese investors, a special note of caution. There is too much hype going on about China. In the short term, China's growth is overblown; in the long term, it is under-estimated. There will be corrections, some of them major, along the way. But the changes are higher then the risks.... China Business Strategies www.hkc22.com __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com --------------------------------- Do you Yahoo!? All your favorites on one personal page – Try My Yahoo! [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Internet and Democracy Across Asia: MAY 2001 Online Trends in Governance, Civil Society and Media More information at: http://www.e-democracy.org/do Rule: No more than two posts a day per participant. To SUBSCRIBE, send e-mail to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNSUBSCRIBE, e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/do-asia/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
