Dear Friends,
The following mock Elliott waif theory analysis was composed for the dgc-chat list (Where JP posts all the time, Forrest.) I redacted all the comments I was replying to for privacy sake. Enjoy! If the 3 wave's movement is 1.62 times the 1 wave's movement, and starts from the 2 wave's end point, then we need to establish what we think was the 1 wave's movement. If we figure it was from about $320 (1 Dec) to about $390 then its magnitude was about $70. Taking 1.618 times $70 = 113.26 which implies we are going from about $341.50 to $454.76. Now, I'm just eyeballing the 6-month chart you can see here: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Plus, I'm pulling that $390 number out of long term memory from two weeks ago. (Events at the time caused it to be etched on my memory.) If we somewhat arbitrarily decide to count waves from $345 (2 Jan or so) then the 1 wave was only $45 and the 3 wave gets us to $414.40. I happen to recall a recent message or newsletter from James Turk suggesting that gold might rise to perhaps $430 in the first part of March. That's not happened in a straight line, more's the pity. But, it is smack dab in between my off-the-cuff $454 and $414. So, here's where the Elliott waifs and I have to part company. I have no idea whether we are in an A, B, C, D, 1, 2, 3, or 4 wave, or even I, II, III, or IV as I've seen some time back in one of Prechter's books. (What's up with that?) My contention is that none of them have a clue, either, and we're all just sitting here a-gog about whether gold will go up or down. But, if we just did a correction which was 61.8% down from $390 (intraday high on 5 Feb you'll recall) to $341.50 (the recent low we didn't get past intraday on Tuesday), and we simply assert (which I claim is what the Elliott waifs do) that was a 2 wave we can then suppose the 1 wave had to have started at $311.52. Hmm? 390 - 341.50 = 48.5 48.5 / .618 = 78.48 $390 - 78.48 = 311.52 I see a number near that about 16 Oct 02. But, now we get all lathered up again, because if that's where wave (waif) 1 started, then... 1.618 * 78.48 = 126.98 as the magnitude for wave 3. (I refuse to capitalize wave, and I'm getting tempted to use waif to mock this stuff big-time.;-) 126.98 + 341.50 = 468.48 would appear to be where wave 3 is going to take us. But, and here's where it all falls to pieces, what if we just experienced a wave 4 (or IV!) and we're back to another 1? No way of knowing. Pure speculative guesswork. But it is kinda nice to see this analysis yielding various results having some similarity to the one James Turk offers using his fear ratio. Regards, Jim http://cambist.net/ --- You are currently subscribed to e-gold-list as: archive@jab.org To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Use e-gold's Secure Randomized Keyboard (SRK) when accessing your e-gold account(s) via the web and shopping cart interfaces to help thwart keystroke loggers and common viruses.
