You can put it in your 'predictions' file, most people have it in the 'basic economics' file.
This is so silly it is not even worth addressing.
But if we have to .. it's ironic you give the example of "McDonald's" as it exactly and precisely does not work like that. (Well, it didn't for Wendy's anyway.)
I guess you don't have any experience of marketing (perhaps too much stock market experience?) but price points and human behavior are chaotic, and you can only do you best to guess.
If the Euro "goes down" 10% the economy there might be relatively down, or up, and that might mean that people buy relatively more, or less, burgers.
(In fact, it is incredibly unknowable whether people will buy more or less of particular product category X when the economy goes up, or down. As was discussed, some say that "entertainment" (movies, etc) are thought to go up, up, up in a recession, and other things (say - maybe car purchases) are thought to go down, down down in a recession [although certain categories of car sales went way up in the recent recession in the U so that bromide is out the window - anyway]. Fast food - may go up in sales when the economy is down (people are feeling cheap) or it may go down (they just cant afford it - or more realistically in typical economic modelling less people can afford it) - do you know which of those two is the case? You don't.
Really, your McDonalds example is staggeringly wrong on many levels!...
(i) you (not to mention, say, the marketing departments at McDonalds, they only have a vague idea of the answer) have absolutely no idea whether fast food goes UP or DOWN in unit sales terms when there is a recession, or an upswing
(ii) you (not to mention, say, european central bankers and economists) have no idea whether there are more or less people in the demographic able to afford McDonalds when the "Euro goes down" 10% (the Euro softening would quite likely be GOOD for the euro economy, or at any rate more $ flowing into europe, more jobs and more people eating)
(iii) you have no idea what happens to profit margins, costs, staff costs, ever-changing price points, real estate profits in your example.
Etc etc.
And in fact ... in reality, it's very simply well known in international fast food chains that the profit from a region does NOT go with the exchange rate. If the yen's down 20% McDonalds "take from Japan" doesn't "go down 20%".
Similarly, as your example was so dim, you (or anyone) has utterly no idea what will happen at TGC as gold prices move up or down. It's silly to declare that it's obvious to you what will happen.
It could be that (like at most casinos) large customers are the backbone of the property, and those guys get pissed when the price goes up and stop playing. Hence, your guessed out come would be right. (Altough your "reasons" hopelessly incorrect.)
It could be as Jim Davidson notes, as most marketers say "entertainment" goes up during a recession; a rising gold price would mean bad economic times and that would mean more gamers, perhaps making your guessed outcome wrong.
It could be that TGC is used almost exclusively by the "dust" accounts in e-gold - all those folks with a few micrograms who think "might as well have a game of BJ and see who's in the chat room, nothing else to do with this" and it could be that for those users even if the price changed dramatically their behavior would be unaffected.
It could be that the sheer PR value (far and away - probably - the most important single factor in the success of something like TGC) is the most important factor, and the PR & hence new players created by gold price movements dwarves any other changes.
In any event, your simplistic "just so story" of what you think will happen {for what its worth, as usual you've completely chanegd it - at first your view was "people will play less as the price goes up, thats how human behavior is" and now its "like with changing exchange rates, the profit will logically decrease in gold terms"} --- is just ONE simplistic "just so" story of What Will Happen, dozens could be picked out of the air. In fact, it's unknowable and experienced marketers could only take a punt, knowing it's just a hunch.
Again, this is all so obvious it's not worth addressing.
Anyway, the good thing about predictions is, there is absolutely reality at the end.
After awhile either the predicition is hopelessly incorrect (as you know) or it's correct.
So, you can wait and see!
Will there be an effect along the lines of Danny's discussion that peple will say "hmm, I had $10,000 of egold, but now I have $15,000 - I really only want $10,000 so I better sell some"?
There is always a buyer for every seller. So, yes there are people who decide now to sell some gold because it has gone up...
?!!
If the price plummets will people just getsick of it and sell bars?
When there is get-rid-of-it pressure on egold (egold per se, not gold), ultimately the number of bars will decline, as the selling devolves via the market makers to omnipay who actually reduce the number of gold bars in the e-gold system.
Again, this is ungeussable.
It COULD BE that as the price of gold shoots up, humans say "screw this e-gold stuff, I want real physical gold now". In that case it would be true that "the price going up makes e-gold get less popular and smaller". OR it COULD BE that as the price of gold plummets, humans say "screw this e-gold stuff anyway, give me real gold if I have to have gold," then the opposite would be true.
No-one knows, and experienced marketers just know it's impossible to guess.
Sure, it's interesting to toss around ideas, but it is absurdist to think you have a Knowable System all worked out. Regarding TGC, it has, in fact, grown continually the last few years -- ie, grown continually during gold price increases, which is exactly opposite your mathematical-obviousity prediction, anyway, Danny - good grief.
--- You are currently subscribed to e-gold-list as: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Use e-gold's Secure Randomized Keyboard (SRK) when accessing your e-gold account(s) via the web and shopping cart interfaces to help thwart keystroke loggers and common viruses.
