> >You can put it in your 'predictions' file, most people have it in the 'basic > >economics' file. > > This is so silly it is not even worth addressing.
We are used to that kind of statements from you. Note: It usually means jpm agrees, for people who are new on the board. > If the Euro "goes down" 10% the economy there might be relatively > down, or up, and that might mean that people buy relatively more, or > less, burgers. Currency movements have little to do with the economic performance. The Euro is up more than 20% against the dollar over the last couple of years, yet the economy in the US has been growing faster. The movements of the currencies are the result of 'capital flows', not because people buy more or less hamburgers. > And in fact ... in reality, it's very simply well known in > international fast food chains that the profit from a region does NOT > go with the exchange rate. If the yen's down 20% McDonalds "take > from Japan" doesn't "go down 20%". The people at McDonalds and nearly every US company with branches abroad just happen to disagree with you. They all reported better than expected results last quarter citing the higher Euro as an important reason for it. It makes the portion of revenues and profits from Europ relatively bigger in dollar terms. http://www.mcdonalds.com/corporate/press/financial/2003/07292003/index.html "Revenues rose 11% (5% in constant currencies) to an all-time high for the quarter... "EOQ Constant currencies means when they take out the effect of the higher Euro. So, their revenues were up 11% , but 6% of that rise was the result of currency movements. A little further you find a more clear explanation, which is exactly what I tried to explain here for TGC case: "Impact of Foreign Currencies on Reported Results While changing foreign currencies affect reported results, McDonald's lessens exposures, where practical, by financing in local currencies, hedging certain foreign-denominated cash flows and by purchasing goods and services in local currencies. Foreign currency translation had a positive impact on the growth rates of consolidated revenue, operating income and earnings per share for the quarter and six months, primarily due to the stronger Euro and British Pound. "EOQ So, the McDonalds people agree with me that currency movement affects their results. And they have no problem at all to calculate pretty exactly how much of their revenu and profit growth is due to the currency changes. Jpm lives in a different universe, where currency movements have no effect. > Sure, it's interesting to toss around ideas, but it is absurdist to > think you have a Knowable System all worked out. Regarding TGC, it > has, in fact, grown continually the last few years -- ie, grown > continually during gold price increases, which is exactly opposite > your mathematical-obviousity prediction, anyway, Danny - good grief. We are all interested to know where you get the growth numbers for TGC, which show you that their growth is the same regardless of gold price. Danny --- You are currently subscribed to e-gold-list as: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe send a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Use e-gold's Secure Randomized Keyboard (SRK) when accessing your e-gold account(s) via the web and shopping cart interfaces to help thwart keystroke loggers and common viruses.
