http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/12/news/economy/exxon_outlook/index.htm
The world's largest energy company says demand for fossil fuels will soar; sees little hope for corn-based ethanol. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- ExxonMobil delivered its annual long term energy forecast Tuesday, saying that it expects the world will use 60% more energy in 2030 than in did in 2000. But despite this spike in demand, the oil giant does not expect to see any increase in the use of renewable energy sources from 2006 levels. Exxon also said the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is expected to soar as a result, but that it would be far cheaper to limit carbon output by regulating power plants instead of vehicles. Despite supply concerns, the company added that it foresees few problems bringing more oil and gas to market, and that the current price of oil is actually higher than it needs to be to bring oil to market. In a presentation to analysts, Jaime Spellings said that"As the global economy grows, the demand for energy grows," he said. "But the curve is flattening. Developing and adapting energy-efficient technology is crucial." Spellings singled out the car as one area ripe for more conservation technology, noting that recent advances in fuel economy had been largely offset by gains in vehicle weight. He said the world would use fossil fuels to meet about 80 percent of its total energy demand in 2030, about the same proportion as today.Hydro and nuclear power currently make up most of the remaining 20 percent. Spellings said renewable energy, while growing rapidly, will continue to provide just several percent of the world's total energy needs by 2030. He referred to slides saying that in 2005 it took 13 percent of the country's corn production to make the ethanol that accounted for just 2 percent of the country's gasoline demand. He also said that ethanol's lower energy yield makes it generally more expensive than gasoline, even with oil at $60 a barrel. Spellings said even cellulosic ethanol or ethanol made from sugar cane could not compete with gasoline on a cost basis. "This provides some perspective on ethanol's prospects as an alternative fuel," he said. Paul Cherubini El Dorado, Calif.
