I must admit I am a bit amazed that even within our community of
well-educated ecologists, learned in understanding connections between
different parts of nature, and able to think critically and
independently, we again and again encounter people who dare not to open
their eyes to the facts.
As is, all the predictions of the IPCC, increase in atmospheric CO2,
increase in global temperature, melting of the Arctic sea-ice, melting
of Greenland and Antarctica, and yes, increase in sea-level, are as fast
or faster than the most pessimistic predictions of the IPCC (see
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/).
That means we are approaching irreversible tipping points at a rate
nobody imagined possible. Irreversible means: changes in the atmospheric
system that will stay as long as it is relevant for the human species.
A recent paper in Nature by Malte Meinshausen et al. showed that we can
emit another one trillion tons of CO2 until 2050. Sounds like a lot?
Well, within the first 9 years of this century we already emitted 1/3 of
it. And, once we emit that much, we have a 75% chance of not reaching
tipping points. That's equivalent like stepping in an airplane, that has
a 1 out of 4 chance to crash, and being content about the prospect of
(not) making it.
It is important to understand that the probabilities climate scientists
calculate with are absolutely unacceptable, at least for the future of
my kids.
So, anyway, if some prospects are not as bad as thought, that is
absolutely wonderful. But that should not keep us up on our heels doing
whatever we can to avoid a future that nobody can really imagine. There
is enough of a wonderful future that we CAN imagine: a safe, clean
future with 100% renewable energies, clean air and water, and job
prospects for all. Let's work together towards that instead of fighting
our friends!
Maiken
