One more thing: what predictions can you make if you understand what caused the extinction of the (non-avian) dinosaurs?
Jane On Thu, Mar 3, 2011 at 7:19 AM, Jeff Houlahan <jeffh...@unb.ca> wrote: > In response to Jane?s comments ? I admit that understanding and prediction > are not the same thing but they are much more closely related than most > people appreciate, in my opinion. I would go so far as to say that > prediction is a necessary if not sufficient condition of understanding. So > while it is possible to predict without understanding (as in Jane?s > Babylonian?s example ? although I knew nothing about the Babylonians and > their ability to predict, I have no doubt that?s true) I think it is > impossible to demonstrate understanding without prediction. In fact, I > realized that I can?t come up with a definition of understanding that > satisfies me without talking about prediction (none of the on-line > definitions that I found worked very well for me). My definition of > understanding would be ?The ability to make specific predictions based on a > general description of how the world works.? Now, I guess it?s possible > that somebody could understand how the world works but not be able to make > any predictions but that means that they can?t demonstrate their > understanding. In my opinion, understanding that can?t be demonstrated has > little(no?) value because I can?t distinguish that person from all the > people who claim they have understanding but have none. > My above definition leaves room for ?thinking? you understand when you > don?t, in situations where you make good predictions for the wrong reasons. > But, even here prediction is critical because we will only detect our > mistake when we try to make a new prediction and our ?understanding? leads > us astray. That is, the only evidence of our mistake will be poor > prediction. > So, my original claim was not that understanding and prediction are the same > thing but that understanding cannot be demonstrated without prediction. And > predictions have to better than we would make by chance. And the only way to > evaluate that is through some measure of probability/likelihood. Best. > > Jeff Houlahan > > PS I would be interested to hear any examples where understanding can be > demonstrated without prediction. > -- ------------- Jane Shevtsov Ecology Ph.D. candidate, University of Georgia co-founder, <www.worldbeyondborders.org> Check out my blog, <http://perceivingwholes.blogspot.com>Perceiving Wholes "In the long run, education intended to produce a molecular geneticist, a systems ecologist, or an immunologist is inferior, both for the individual and for society, than that intended to produce a broadly educated person who has also written a dissertation." --John Janovy, Jr., "On Becoming a Biologist"
