Hi, Paul, David, et al.,
Paul's informal survey is quite interesting to me, not only because
of the subject of monarchs, and the landscapes from a part of the country I
am not familiar with, but also because of its implications for informal
research. One issue is inferences that may or may not be justified:
For instance, can the presence of insects visiting flowers of a kind
that are usually nectar-bearing be used to infer that the insects are in
fact finding nectar? After all, what else are they going to do? Even if
they're not finding nectar, don't they still have to keep looking or else
just die? Is there some other resource they could switch to?
Also, does the absence of monarchs on plants that are potentially
nectar-rich mean that the monarchs aren't hungry, and so are staying at high
altitude (and thus not visible to this survey), or could it mean they
starved to death hundreds of miles north? Or could those patches look so
meager compared to what they are programmed to respond to that no
nectar-seeking response is triggered?
Another issue has to do with potential sampling bias. Would Paul, and
other biologists with a similar level of interest in Monarchs, have reported
their findings if their results had been negative? Did twenty other people
anywhere in the monarch flyways drive out and make similar surveys and not
report their results in this forum because A., they saw nothing unusual
(i.e., normal monarch abundance) or because B., they had their expectations
confirmed (low abundance, as others have reported)? Do do biases A and B
cancel each other out?
David did report negative results (ie, he sees less abundance of
nectar-bearing species than in non-drought years), but his report seems to
have been triggered by Paul's. Plus, he spoke only of plants, and didn't
address the abundance of Monarchs.
I don't mean any of this to detract from the efforts and contributions
Paul, David, and others. Indeed, maybe their work and these questions will
cause others to chip in with details that will shed more light on the state
of monarchs. I do want to suggest, however, that their results should be
treated with caution, and should not be seen as either confirmation or
invalidation of the presumably more formal data and report from Monarch
Watch that started this thread.
By the way, the unidentified flower Paul found near Jet, Oklahoma,
looks like a species of smartweed (*Polygonum*).
Respectfully,
Martin M. Meiss
2011/9/29 David L. McNeely <mcnee...@cox.net>
> Paul and others,
>
> I live in central Oklahoma. The photos you show look like the isolated
> patches of bloom that I see around. Maximilian sunflower should be at its
> peak right now. Instead, I see only scattered groups of a few plants,
> versus the acres of fields and right of way normally covered in yellow in
> late September. Snow on the Mountain (a euphorb) should also have extensive
> stands of blooming plants. Again, scattered. There are almost no fields of
> broomweed in bloom, one of the most drought tolerant late composites.
> Little ironweed is blooming, and little goldenrod compared to normal years.
> I can find patches of all these, but not the extensive fields. On my own
> property, I have a large patch of goldenrod, and lots of common and
> Maximilian sunflowers. Partridge pea as well. All should be at peak right
> now. Instead, I have isolated plants with flowers, others seem very late or
> simply have begun to wilt without the heads opening. Common sunflowers are
> dwarfed compared to norm!
> al years, so many fewer flower heads. My Liatris (gayfeather), an
> important late composite, simply failed to emerge from the ground. I hope
> the corms are alive.
>
> David McNeely, Edmond, Oklahoma
>
> ---- Paul Cherubini <mona...@saber.net> wrote:
> > On Sep 27, 2011, at 11:32 AM, David Inouye wrote:
> >
> > > Monarch Population Status - September 2011
> > > by Chip Taylor - Director, Monarch Watch
> > >
> > > The migration is just beginning to navigate
> > > a 1000 miles of hell - a nearly flowerless/nectarless and waterless
> > > expanse of central KS, OK, TX, and NE MX (see Drought Monitor at
> > > http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/).
> >
> >
> > On Sept. 18-19 I drove around northwestern Oklahoma
> > and south-central Kansas (in the "hell" zone) and what I
> > saw did not match Dr. Taylor's frightening description.
> >
> > I found a green or greenish-tan landscape with the
> > usual abundance of sunflowers and other nectar plants
> > one typically sees in Sept. The milkweed also looked
> > normal and not severely water stressed.
> >
> > Starting from Oklahoma City, I drove a roughly circular
> > route through the "hell" zone (exceptional drought zone)
> > of northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas as
> > shown on this map:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/hellzone.jpg
> >
> > Here are some pictures and videos I took, all of which were
> > taken in the "hell" zone:
> >
> > On Sept. 18 I drove north on I-35 from Oklahoma City
> > and often saw Asclepias viridis milkweed along the roadside.
> > I stopped at a few patches and found one plant with a 3rd
> > instar monarch caterpillar:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/viridisa.jpg
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/viridisb.jpg
> >
> > I also saw occassional stands of sunflower nectar plants like this:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/sunflowersOKC.jpg
> >
> > Along the eastern outskirts of Enid, Oklahoma the landscape
> > was still mostly green with sunflowers and lots of monarchs:
> > Still photo:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/enida.jpg
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0chg-fzeKbU
> >
> > 10-15 miles north of Enid, Oklahoma along Hwy 81 there were
> > fields galore of sunflowers:
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LJV3ZMOJ5I
> > At one spot I found a monarch caterpillar in a patch
> > of latifolia milkweed that looked healthy and not water
> > stressed: Video:
> > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzBh6m_CyjE
> >
> > Now going west on hwy 64 about 5 miles before the town
> > of Nash, Oklahoma, I took this video of monarchs nectaring
> > on sunflowers:
> > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDwcTaI2Iak
> >
> > Continuing west on hwy 64 one mile past Nash, OK I
> > saw large fields of sunflowers like this:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/nash.jpg
> >
> > Continuing west on hwy 64 two miles west of Jet, OK I
> > saw many monarchs nectaring on an unidentified flower:
> > Still photo:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/jetb.jpg
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhrcyRD1ULA
> >
> > Five miles west of Nash, still on hwy 64, I encountered this
> > huge field of alfalfa (cow feed) with numerous monarchs
> > nectaring in it: Still photo:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/jetc.jpg
> >
> > Six miles south of Cherokee, Oklahoma, at the intersection
> > of Hwy 64 and Hwy 8 I saw many monarchs nectaring on
> > sunflowers:
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jHvnZ3WwzI
> >
> > At the town of Burlington, Oklahoma I encountered yet another
> > huge field of alfalfa with numerous monarchs nectaring in it.
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTnVIlbbNI4
> >
> > Another nectar plant I saw from time to time in this
> > region was goldenrod:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/kansasa.jpg
> >
> > The next morning (Sept. 19) in the town of Alva, Oklahoma,
> > I observed monarchs migrating east and southeastward at
> > the rate of 1-5 per minute which indicates they were abundant
> > in this northwest region of the State:
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1J1_GEtFx4
> >
> > Driving south from Alva along hwy 281 I observed nectar
> > flowers from time to time and stopped to take this video
> > of many bees on the flowers which shows the flowers were
> > producing nectar despite the drought:
> > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9bI4mIZIWg
> >
> > Sunflowers became increasingly abundant like this:
> > Still photos:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/sunalva.jpg
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/signwaynoka.jpg
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/waysun.jpg
> >
> > Some people think these sunflowers look "stunted" from
> > the drought and may not be producing much nectar. So I took
> > held the video camera up close to the flowers and observed
> > several insects were indeed gathering nectar or pollen:
> > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlMaaEWye_k
> >
> > Along the eastern outskirts of Waynoka, Oklahoma I
> > encountered still more sunflowers plus a huge field of alfalfa:
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfN4gkCieWU
> > Although flowering alfalfa is a powerful attractor for migrant
> > monarchs, relatively few monarchs were seen nectaring in
> > this field which I think suggests the migrants were not hungry
> > enough to be distracted from their high altitude (soaring)
> > migratory flight (a northwest wind that day caused most of
> > the monarchs to go into high altitude soaring mode).
> >
> > I checked into a motel in Watonga, Oklahoma and then drove
> > around town and from time to time saw fields of nectar
> > plants with monarchs on them like this: Still photo:
> > http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/new/watonga.jpg
> > Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_apsQSKfzU
> >
> > My conclusions from this trip:
> >
> > 1) Despite the drought, the supply of available nectar plants
> > in the "hell" zone is vastly greater than the number of
> > monarchs hence the monarchs are not having a hard time
> > locating nectar plants nor are they drinking the plants
> > dry of nectar.
> >
> > 2) In the "hell" zone the monarchs are in migratory mode
> > for most of the day rather than in feeding mode which further
> > suggests they are not seriously nutritionally stressed. A
> > nutritionally stressed monarch will be preocupied with
> > feeding as all experience monarch breeders and handlers
> > know.
> >
> > Paul Cherubini
> > El Dorado, Calif.
>
> --
> David McNeely
>
