Dear Professor Hoppe,
This is what I have been presenting to my classes for many years. Thought
you might enjoy it.
A Great Deal? Or is it?
While you are wending your way home for an exciting day at school,
statistics being the farthest thing from your mind, you hear a sound. "Psst."
"Psst," comes the sound again, "hey, buddy.
"Who me?" you respond.
"Sure you. You want a great deal to make some quick money?"
Never being one who turns down money, your curiosity is peaked and you
move a little closer to the man who has called you. He isn't dressed very
well and he does need a shave. You also detect a slight odor of cheap wine on
his breath as he moves closer.
"Look, I got a friend who works in a machine shop," he says, taking a
coin from his pocket. "And this guy ... well ... he makes `loaded coins. His
specialty is dimes like this here one."
He presents you with an ordinary looking dime. You take it from his
slightly dirty hand and examine it closely. It appears to be a perfectly
ordinary coin.
"So what," you ask, "it's an ordinary dime. "
"That's the great part. It ain't ordinary. Ya see, he carefully splits
the dime and loads one side so that it comes up more on one side than the
other. He does it so good you can't even see where he split the coin, go
ahead, look for the crack, you ain't gonna see it."
"Wait a minute. How am I going to know you're telling the truth?"
"Man, you are sure suspicious. Look I'm willing to give up this coin for
only ten bucks. Think of all the money you can win from the suckers out there.
Suspecting that you might be one of those `suckers' you ask your new
friend, "Will it always come up one way?"
"Nah, that would be stupid. You'd get found out right away if it did
that. He fixes it so it comes up more one side than normal."
"Well, it sounds like a good deal."
"Look, I ain't got too much time. Give it a test and you'll see what I
mean."
As you prepare to flip the coin you ask, "Will it come up more heads or
more tails?
"Gee, I don't know, but it does one or the other. I didn't ask what this
one does. The one I use does tails more often. I really won a lot of money so
far with that coin."
Apparently the `lot of money' hasn't been used for soap and water you
think to yourself.
You take the coin and flip it ten times. The coin flops back into your
hand with the heads showing eight times.
"See, you got a `heads' coin. Just think how much you can win and that
dime will only cost you ten bucks. That's a great bargain but you got to buy
it now cause I think I see a cop coming down the street."
Well now. If the story is true you can win a great deal of money. You
even know the guys you can try it on before class tomorrow. If the story is
false, well, that dime will cost you ten dollars of your hard earned money.
What do you do?
- - - - -
Dr. Robert C. Knodt
4949 Samish Way, #31
Bellingham, WA 98226
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Born Free . . . Taxed to Death"
Interested in expensive statistical software? Take a look: <A
HREF="http://members.aol.com/RCKnodt/pubpage.htm">MODSTAT</A>
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