What sort of rare events are you trying to predict. Me, I am in the
business of predicting motor vehicle crashes. It's very important to
partition all of the variance that you can out of the dependent measure so
that when the rare event occurs it will not be mixed up with events that
look like the one you want to predict. For example, some people in this
business add preventable and non-preventable collisions. Bad idea. They
have different base rates and different precursors. Also, you have to
partial out the effect of exposure.
I don't know what you are trying to predict, but I can say that getting the
purest possible dependent measure is important.
--
Michael B. Cantor, Ph. D.
President
WayPoint Research, Inc.
Atlanta, GA
404 982 0011
404 982 9661 (fax)
http://www.waypointresearch.com
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