In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Valar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>Hello to everyone!
>I has a question for you that comes from a discussion that I had with a
>friend of mine.
>Due to the fact that with the Bayes Probability definition we can define
>a probability even for events that doesn't occur necessarily several
>times he say that is possible to associate a probability to the
>existence of God.
>But I think that in this case probability has non sense because I think
>that the Bayes definition is usable only with events that are a priori
>reapeatable (even if they occurred only one time or they never occurred)
>or that are composed by some sub-events reapeatable
Attempts to reduce probability to anything else just lead to
the type of confusion you seem to be having. About the only
way to look at probability in the universe is to assume it
exists, and satisfies the properties posited.
>For example he said me that we can associate a probability that with
>certain coditions it will rain, and we can do that even if these
>conditions occurr one time in our life, but I say that there is an
>important difference because the calculus of thi probability is made
>with physical consideration about several sub-events each with a
>probability that came from experience and physical models (that are
>based on experience too)
>What is the right opinion?
When looked at carefully, one never gets models from experience;
the models are created in the mind, and selected from experience.
The appearance may be otherwise, when a simple mental model fits
the observations quite well; physical scientists were lucky in
that this happened. When it gets a little harder, this does not
work very well, and even for simple situations, not good enough
or too good data will make things difficult.
With probability, it is essentially impossible to get good
results empirically. Only modeling will provide understanding,
and confirmation of the assumptions.
--
This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views
are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University.
Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907-1399
[EMAIL PROTECTED] Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558
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