Herman Rubin wrote:
> In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
> Alan McLean <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >I am sure there is a multitude of possible answers to this one.
>
> >One way I would answer it is to say that probability is only applicable
> >to *observable* events - that is, the occurrence of something which is
> >in some way directly measurable. The existence of God is not observable
> >in this sense, so probability is irrelevant to any discussion about the
> >existence of God.
>
> This would exclude the application of probability to such
> things as nuclear physics. While we have to use
> observations to draw inferences, the probabilities of
> interest are not those about the observations, but about
> the underlying process.
Not really. The probability models that constitute nuclear physics provide
probabilities for events which can be measured - and thus provide a test of the
models. (I know this is oversimplified.)
>
> >Another, related way to express this is to say that belief in the
> >existence of God is a *model* for the universe. Within that model
> >probability questions can be asked, but one cannot talk meaningfully of
> >the existence of the model. (The same comment applies, for example,
> >about general relativity as a theory which models the universe.)
>
> However, we use probability methods (actually statistical)
> to draw inferences not just within a model, but between
> models. One mistake, however, is to treat composite
> hypotheses or models as simple, as is the case here.
A statistical model is a probability model. I actually goofed a bit here - I
meant to say "...but one cannot talk meaningfully of **the probability of** the
existence of the model." And whether the model is 'composite' or 'simple' does
not change this.
> >Repeatability is certainly (oops! - with high probability) not a
> >prerequisite for probability to make sense.
>
> This is very definitely the case.
Good!
>
> --
> This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views
> are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University.
> Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907-1399
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558
>
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--
Alan McLean (alan.buseco.monash.edu.au)
Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
Monash University, Caulfield Campus, Melbourne
Tel: +61 03 9903 2102 Fax: +61 03 9903 2007
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