The other problem is that the networks are competitive. Statisticians
and pollsters are more guarded, but the media wants to make a definitive
statement NOW. A lot is at stake for getting the news-breaking story and
headline out first.
"J. Williams" wrote:
>
> It appeared at first it was Gore winning Florida. No, wait. It's
> Bush. He's the next President. No, now it's too close to call. All
> of it based on the exit poll consortium used by the networks. This
> appears to be the reason all the networks got it wrong. To save
> money, the networks pool their resources and receive one set of
> predictions. Now, the talking heads are blaming (pick one): bad data,
> goofy statisticians, precinct fraud, and on and on. As I have
> indicated in earlier years, these telephone polls and "exit"
> interviews are very troublesome --- particularly in close races. How
> many people are willing to detail their "secret" ballot to a stranger
> whether on the phone or in person? I think there are many who either
> refuse or ignore such requests. I know I would. It is no one's
> business how I voted. Precinct history is not etched in stone either.
> Sampling and the consequent polls have taken a hit. I suppose I can
> understand how the general public and various courts are concerned
> about how the Census should be conducted vis a vis sampling instead of
> actual head counts. Cynicism about sampling and polling will be alive
> and well after this election---regardless of who wins.
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