On Thu, 09 Nov 2000 00:01:16 GMT, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (J.
Williams) wrote:
>It appeared at first it was Gore winning Florida. No, wait. It's
>Bush. He's the next President. No, now it's too close to call. All
>of it based on the exit poll consortium used by the networks. This
>appears to be the reason all the networks got it wrong. To save
>money, the networks pool their resources and receive one set of
>predictions. Now, the talking heads are blaming (pick one): bad data,
>goofy statisticians, precinct fraud, and on and on. As I have
>indicated in earlier years, these telephone polls and "exit"
>interviews are very troublesome --- particularly in close races. How
>many people are willing to detail their "secret" ballot to a stranger
>whether on the phone or in person? I think there are many who either
>refuse or ignore such requests. I know I would. It is no one's
>business how I voted. Precinct history is not etched in stone either.
>Sampling and the consequent polls have taken a hit. I suppose I can
>understand how the general public and various courts are concerned
>about how the Census should be conducted vis a vis sampling instead of
>actual head counts. Cynicism about sampling and polling will be alive
>and well after this election---regardless of who wins.
For reason why the Voter News Service and the their sponsoring
networks got it wrong see this PollWatchers column from the
Washington Post.
http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45950-2000Nov8.html
It is also important to realize that it looks like the difference
in the popular vote in Florida will be in the range of <2,000
votes out of about 6,000,000 valid votes cast. It would have
been impossible to call Florida as anything but too close to
call.
--
Leo G. Simonetta
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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