How did you get these numbers? I would have thought that if your
V was 0.1, your delta would be 672. If my understanding is
correct, your've underestimated the effect by about 2, and
the crossover V is around .15. Do I misunderstand your model?
I actually have an opinion on the likelihood of hand counts
being able to produce an additional thousand votes for Gore,
but since this is a stat discussion and not a political one
I'm going to refrain from sharing it.
--Robert Chung
"Bob Wheeler" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
> Undervotes are represented by vote cards which
> have no punches for a presidential candidate -- at
> least none that were detected by tabulating
> machines. It is reported that there are some 28000
> of these in the three contentious Florida
> counties.
>
> Because these counties seem to have favored Gore
> more than Bush (by 69%,54% and 64%), the Democrats
> believe that manual inspection of these cards will
> result in votes for Gore. The Republicans fear
> this. Is there any statistical justification for
> these views?
>
> There are two possibilities: (A) a vote was
> attempted; (B) no vote was attempted. Let us
> assume that for (A) the probability of a Gore vote
> is 0.62, and 0.50 for (B), then if V is the
> proportion of the 28000 corresponding to (A), one
> has the mean vote for Gore being
> 28000(0.62V+0.50(1-V)), and similarly one can
> obtain a SD. One finds:
> V Delta
> 0 0
> 0.1 336
> 0.2 692
> 0.3 1008
> where Delta is the incremental number of votes for
> Gore. Since the SD in all cases is about 84 votes,
> it may be seen that V must be in the neighborhood
> of 0.3 before Gore will pick up enough votes to
> overcome the 960 vote lead of Bush.
>
> Is this likely? Early results from the counts seem
> to suggest it is not.
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