I can't help it.  the last paragraph in this post absolutely _demands_ a
response.

Wuzzy wrote:

> > You made a model with the "exact same exposure in different units",
> > which is something that no one would do,
>
> Hehe, translation is don't post messages until you've thought them
> through.
>
> Anyway, turns out that the answer to my question is "No"..
> Multicollinearity cannot force a correlation.  It turns out that ONE
> of the variables *was* correlated With R^2=0.45 and so
> multicollinearity had no effect on overall R^2.
>
> I'm sure no-one is interested in my data as it has nothing to do with
> statistics, my subject of interest is not statistics.. but i need to
> learn it as a tool..

Dear Wuzzy,

In two short sentences, you have expressed the fundamental issues of
those who claim their "subject is not statistics."  So long as you try
to separate 'statistics' from your specific technology, you will not
develop much of either.

House builders do not spend much time concerned with their hammers or
their nails.  Yet they are sufficiently concerned that (in the USA) they
buy expensive nail guns and special nail packages so they can build
those houses faster and better.  They use roofing nails to hold the roof
shingles in place, finishing nails to hold the interior trim in place,
and they carefully know the differences between them.

In resolving a technical product performance problem, which is what I
largely do with my statistics, I have to carefully decide what I am
going to measure, how it will be measured, and how I will analyze it
(crunch the numbers).  Many people believe that this last step equals
statistics.  They neglect that the analysis methods depend on those
first two items.  They often neglect that each of those numbers I crunch
_means_ something.  They have units.  They relate back to what was
measured.

The statistical analysis in my view is mostly concerned with detecting
and quantifying the relationships between the different things and
conditions which were measured. Thus, without the statistics, you have
no technology; without the technology you have no statistics.  You
cannot relegate one of them down to the level of 'tool.'  Down that path
lies the perennial question, 'which equation should I use,' which begs
its own questions.

In your specific case, it appears that you tried to do a multiple
regression using one response (dependent variable) and three factors
(independent variables).  But the three factors were actually
transformations of the same variable.  Since you said they were in
different units, the transformations were probably linear.  If you tried
to do a full multiple regression on this data in this manner (3
factors), I'm surprised that the software did not warn you it had found
a singular matrix, or at least that it had tried to divide by zero.
Perhaps you made the conversions on a hand calculator, so small rounding
errors kept the matrix that is inside the analysis from blowing up
(inward!?:) on you.

In any case, discovering that a linear transformation of data produces
radically different r^2 values should be a warning that something is
amiss, and it is time to think more carefully about exactly what digits
are being pushed around the screen.  Those numbers _mean_ something,
remember :)  And so does the math of the equations we select.  A
correlation and/or linear or polynomial regression analysis with one
response and one factor would probably be more technically valuable, for
your data, as best I can see from here.

As for interest in your data, I can say that I would like to see it, as
an example I can use for students.  I need to collect real data from
many different technologies - industrial, business, medical, social
sciences, etc. - in order to relate the topic of 'statistics' to the
areas of interest to them.  I will be happy to share the write up with
you, especially if you are willing to correct any errors in the
technology which I am likely to make.  I am also careful not to slam
even the fictitious people who appear in them.

After all, it takes an expert to make a good hammer, and an expert to
make a good house.  They need each other, just as 'statisticians' need
'technology experts.'

Cheers,
Jay
--
Jay Warner
Principal Scientist
Warner Consulting, Inc.
4444 North Green Bay Road
Racine, WI 53404-1216
USA

Ph: (262) 634-9100
FAX: (262) 681-1133
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
web: http://www.a2q.com

The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today?






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